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The AFL season is like a jigsaw puzzle and we all approach each year with how we think the pieces will fit together.
Generally, after a few rounds, we have to tip the board over, scatter the pieces and start again. They never seem to fit the way we expected.
A month into the season now, and we can start to understand which pieces have a more solid cardboard foundation, while others are made of tissue paper.
The question of attack versus defence and the balance between the two has been a hot topic and much has been made of the higher scoring we’re seeing across the first four rounds. The average points per game so far this year has been 182, as opposed to 173 at the same point in 2015.
Adelaide’s defeat of Sydney on Saturday night was the match of the season so far, an epic battle that had a bit of everything. We saw a low-scoring arm-wrestle in the first half with only ten goals kicked, followed by a free-flowing third term where 13 goals were produced. We saw composure from some, panic from others, high skill and clangers in equal proportion.
Goals were kicked by the old (eight between Lance Franklin and Eddie Betts) and the new (Isaac Heeney with four). Daniel Hannebery and Josh Kennedy led all-comers in the disposal stakes, as they’ve been doing for years, while Matt Crouch, Rory Atkins and Callum Mills, with less than 50 games between them, were also instrumental for their respective sides in gathering lots of possession.
A lot of reporting and analysis of AFL takes the form of glorified cheerleading. Adelaide and Sydney are ‘so hot right now’, and everyone wants to shower them with praise and talk them up.
Casting a critical eye over the game though, and the same concerns from last year were present for each team.
Adelaide was clearly the third highest scoring side last year, one of only three teams to average over 100 points per match. In the last two months of the home-and-away rounds they averaged 114 points per game, including a three-game run where they averaged 143.
Four rounds into 2016 and they are again ranked in the top three for scoring, at number two in between North and Sydney. They’ve kicked more goals than Carlton and Essendon combined.
The Crows can score. We know that. But, can they defend?
Adelaide ranked 11th for scores against last year, and are currently 10th so far this season, ranked lower even than the Bombers.
As individuals, the Crows backmen have some excellent players (Daniel Talia, Rory Laird), some honest soldiers (Kyle’s Cheney and Hartigan), some young talent (Luke Brown, Jake Lever) and some creative running types (Brodie Smith, Paul Seedsman). It’s a good bunch and a nice mix.
As a collective though, they are either outmatched by the opposition, being hung out to dry by a lack of pressure through the midfield, or being cruelled by a gameplan lacking a robust defensive structure.
Two of Adelaide’s wins, against Port and Richmond, have been off the back of offensive potency and inferior opposition. In their Round 1 loss to North they held a four-goal advantage in the third term, but couldn’t prevent the Roos from scoring easily and often from that point on.
On Saturday night against Sydney, they outplayed the Swans across the last three quarters, but still almost lost the game due to giving up easy goals after being in a position of strength.
It’s something that Don Pyke will be looking to address over the next few months, but a 3-1 platform is a great spot to be doing it from. His team is playing footy that is easy on the eye, and a top-four finish is now a legitimate aim.
Sydney’s problem last season was being unable to beat quality opposition, often giving up big runs of goals in the process.
The Swans had a 3-7 win-loss record against their fellow finalists last year. They recorded losses to the grand finalists, Hawthorn and West Coast, by 89 and 52 points respectively. None of it is good data for a top four side.
Sydney belted Collingwood and Carlton to open the season, but there are at least ten sides that would have likely done the same. They beat GWS, who may or may not play finals, in Round 3. Adelaide looks like they’ll be there in September, and the Swans have lost again.
Their defence is far better than the sum of their individual parts, which middle and lower-ranked teams find hard to break down, particularly given the star-studded Swans midfield they have to go through to get there.
But when good sides start streaming the ball forward, quickly and regularly, and start applying pressure in the forward half, all of a sudden Ted Richards looks old, Heath Grundy looks shaky and Nick Smith looks one-paced. Dane Rampe becomes uncertain with the ball and Jeremy Laidler is, well, Jeremy Laidler.
Sydney becomes too vulnerable too quickly for a good side. Their midfield and forward line keep them dangerous, but John Longmire will understand there are flaws that must be corrected. Like Pyke, doing so from 3-1 and playing good football means time is on their side.
It seems that the weaknesses of the Swans and Crows are the same as they were previously. Cheerleading media might not see it right now, but you can bet the coaches and educated supporters do.
These may appear harsh criticisms for teams that have opened the season playing some brilliant football, and have just given us what is sure to stand up as one of the classics this year.
But Adelaide and Sydney have put themselves in the premiership conversation, so they must be judged as such. They’re doing a lot right, but we must look at the areas they can improve.
Part of winning a flag is about being able to minimise your own weaknesses, or better yet, address and develop them so they are no longer holding you back.
We can see what the Crows and Swans are doing right. From this point on, we also need to monitor areas of concern.
Who knows – if either team can sort the jigsaw puzzle of their own game-plans out, and fit the pieces together just right, the final picture might just be one of a premiership cup.