Hello Roarers, and welcome back to another week of The Roar’s AFL Expert Tips! I’m said to say last weekend did not go particularly well for me with my two tips against the rest of the comp both failing to get up.
As a result Michael DiFabrizio still has the lead, but I’m three tips behind him and two behind everyone else… gulp! Here’s hoping for a bit of luck this weekend to catch up to the pack on.
The clear match of the round this week is Adelaide vs North Melbourne, the only game for the week to be played between two top eight sides.
EVERY AFL GAME THIS YEAR LIVE ON FOXTEL
These two teams met earlier in the year with North Melbourne winning by a couple of goals in Round 1, but that match was at Etihad Stadium while this one will be played at Adelaide Oval.
North have also sustained a number of injuries to key players in the time since, while Adelaide come into the match with a relatively clean bill of health.
Adelaide are deservedly favourites here, but I’ve tipped North against the odds too many times in the past to stop now. While there are several good arguments against the Roos, I reckon if they can play with the same physicality they did last week, and straighten up their kicking for goal, they can beat any side, any ground.
Collingwood vs Fremantle presents a bit of tipping dilemma this week as well, even if it doesn’t present as a particularly watchable match.
The Pies have been pretty disappointing this year but the same goes for the Dockers. They have both given their fans at least a small measure of joy however, such as Collingwood’s win over Geelong and Fremantle’s over Port.
Fremantle head into this game in the better form and you’d think there’s a bit of belief building in this team even in the absence of many star players.
That said, despite a number of injury concerns and poor form from key players, Collingwood are still probably the more talented side of these two, and they have the home ground advantage.
I’m tipping Collingwood with absolutely zero confidence whatsoever. Like, the same amount of confidence I would have in Travis Cloke kicking a set shot from 20 metres out directly in front.
The other games this round all have fairly clear favourites. There’s some upset potential here and as I said last week the bye rounds are a bit of a full moon for football where anything could happen, but without any real conviction about where an upset could come from I’ll be tipping the favourites in all four.
Richmond despite their troubles are still a much better side than Brisbane, GWS should be comfortably too good for Carlton at home, St Kilda try hard but lack the talent to trouble Geelong, and Hawthorn vs Gold Coast in Tasmania? The Hawks are my lock of the week.
Michael DiFabrizio
It looks like the Thursday and Friday night games are the real toss-ups.
Home ground advantage makes it hard to overlook Adelaide. 10 points separated the two sides in Round 1 at Etihad Stadium and the Crows are playing better football than they were at the outset of the season.
Sam Edmund of the Herald Sun had some interesting stats to show how the Crows had pivoted since the round 8 loss to Geelong. In short, they went from being ranked bottom five for inside 50s against, time in forward half and forward half turnovers, to ranking first in each. I like their form.
On Friday, it’s painful but I’m going with Fremantle. It’s hard to digest given where they were at not long ago, however it just seems like there’s an element of genuineness to their recent form. You can probably thank Michael Barlow and Matthew Pavlich.
Collingwood may very well be refreshed after the week off, and it is a home game for them, and there’s probably a bunch of other reasons why this could backfire.
But to be fair, the Dockers just aren’t playing like a side that started the year 0-10.
BJ Conkey
North Melbourne have faced a difficult few weeks with injury and results not going their way. It doesn’t get any easier against an in-form Adelaide who should have enough to win the midfield battle at home.
I’m going with the Pies with no great certainty. Fremantle has a historical curse against Collingwood at the ‘G and face the prospect of going into the game without veteran Matthew Pavlich – or at the very best, a hampered Pavlich.
| Round 14 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| ADL v NTM | ADL | ADL | NTM | ADL |
| COL v FRE | COL | FRE | COL | FRE |
| RIC v BL | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| GWS v CAR | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| STK v GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| HAW v GCS | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| Last round | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Total | 81 | 82 | 79 | 81 |
Bizzler
Guest
I think you're absolutely spot on with these tips. I've even put money on them. First one came in very close!
haydos
Guest
They didn't lose 11 at all.
joe b
Guest
Thr Freo v Coll game is a tough one to call. There is very bad weather forecast. Both teams have outs, Freo a couple more.... can Pav outscore Cloke? Has McGuire's controversy distracted or galvanized the magpies? Freo's form has been good for a few weeks now, but can they win at the MCG? I am going for Freo, but think that stormy weather at the MCG, and a Collingwood team pretty keen to distance itself from the week's off field drama, makes me think a narrow victory to the home team.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I agree, the Lions never would have got within 3 points of Sydney a few weeks ago if it wasn't raining. It certainly muddies the waters.
sammy
Guest
Maybe GURU, but what wet weather does is allow less skillful teams to bridge the gap as the ball is slippery and it becomes much more of a territory game. It also lowers the scoring generally leading to closer games. My point was that in better conditions I see the crows as a superior team at this point in time, but being wet where it becomes a slog, it becomes a 50/50 game. Just because your team gave us a beating at home and were by far the best team the crows have played this year, does not mean that if it was a wet day that there would be guaranteed dominance again, it would be a flip of the coin - like tonight's game will be
Cat
Roar Guru
Good teams can play in any weather, no guarantee finals will be pristine weather. If a team can't adjust its game plan and personnel to suit the weather (especially when the weather is known plenty in advance) it is a poorly constructed and coached team.
I hate pies
Guest
Oops. The blues will get smashed by the length of the straight.
peter chrisp
Guest
As i am a Pies fan and at the moment not proud either, our game on Friday night apparently the weather conditions are going to atrocious similar to the way both clubs are playing? Am i confident, would i put my house on it, my life savings. Adelaide Docker you have a great chance and they way we are playing who knows!
Josh
Expert
It's a GWS home game.
I hate pies
Guest
GWS can't play away from home; the blue baggers are a big chance this week
Sammy
Guest
On a dry day at Adelaide oval I would think Adelaide win easily based on form and injuries. But the weather in Adelaide is horrible - pouring rain and some flooding. It will be a slog in the wet and that makes this a 50/50 game as to who plays the better wet weather footy. The conditions I think favor north as it will slow the crows transition down and negate their big power forwards...but then there is a fella called Eddie Betts who might dominate..again
Paul D
Roar Guru
Shutting down Daniel Rich is the easiest tag in football. Nothing to brag about.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Adelaide will win by about 25. Fremantle by 10. We're in good form and I think Collingwood will put up a fight, but Fremantle will get their 4th in a row. Richmond easily. By 45 points. GWS by 26. I think Carlton will be right in the game for a long period though. Geelong by 5. This game has real upset potential though. Hawthorn by 60.
TomC
Roar Guru
They're playing really well. I don't think the hype is out of proportion to their performance.
anon
Guest
Why did Freo lose 11 straight games then?
Cat
Roar Guru
If Adelaide are as good as they've been pumped up as being, they should dispatch North easily.
johno
Guest
4th week in succession for Barlow - he shut down Zaharakis, Rich then Gray. Before that in the WAFL he had two rounds of +40 possessions. He's in good nick. Not sure who in the Pies defence Pav needs to be worried about. Frost? Reid? Marsh? nup nup nup. They'd be hard pressed containing Taberner and Hannath. That said the only saving grace for the Pies is the venue.
anon
Guest
"Very disappointing Josh :). I told you three weeks ago that Freo had turned the corner in the game against St Kilda. And you have still continued to tip against Freo." Fremantle had the last 9 goals of the game kicked against them in the Saints match. The Saints are an ordinary team. Freo beat Essendon at Subiaco and a listless Brisbane team. The Port win was good, but Port were really disappointing. For all the talk about Freo's young players, the reality is that they are merely competent mid-sized players. It's also clear that Ross Lyon has abandoned the "new" game plan we heard so much about. Lyon is coaching for himself at this point.
anon
Guest
Adelaide easily. North are pretenders. Collingwood. Good game to bet on. No reason to even think about tipping Freo, unless you think Barlow will have the game of his life the second week in succession and Pav will kick 5 or 6. Richmond GWS Geelong Hawthorn
Paul D
Roar Guru
I’ll be watching the Lions game with my Richmond mates up here in Brisbane, but I doubt very much we’re going to get within a bulls roar of the Tiges, they always seem to have our measure in recent years. Richmond by 60+.