Sorry New South Wales fans, I’m going to jinx the side for a third time this year and say that they’re dead certs to win Origin 3 at ANZ Stadium tonight.
The Blues are surely looking back on this series as a massive ‘what if’?
What if Josh Morris had managed that extra millimetre in Game 1 and had his try allowed? What if Josh Reynolds’ boot had been true and he had tied the scores at 6-6?
And in Game 2, what if Michael Jennings hadn’t got his hand to that ball in the Queensland goal, and Tyson Frizell had scored a second try? Or what if the Dragons’ backrower had a centimetre more pace and had tackled Dane Gagai into touch rather than seen the Maroons winger cross for his first of three tries?
Of course those ‘what if’ moments are just that, and the reality is Queensland have wrapped the series up, after triumphing 6-4 in Game 1 and 26-16 in Game 2.
So here we are again, the Blues playing for ‘pride’ in a dead-rubber match.
More Origin
» Laurie Daley’s survival guide: How many points can he lose by?
» Why Queensland will win Game 3
» Final NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons line-ups
» Expert tips and predictions
However, as they love to tell us, there’s no such thing as a dead-rubber in Origin. And, in fact, of the four series which have been wrapped up by full time in Game 2 since 2006, the series-losing side have emerged victorious in Game 3 thrice.
In 2007 and ’09 the Blues came back to win the final match of the series, having already lost, while Queensland did the same when NSW won their only series of the past ten years, in 2014.
Despite being a champion team, the likes of which we will never see again, the only whitewash that the Maroons have managed during their record-busting run was in 2010.
I’d say something about how Game 3 is actually treated as Game 1 of the following series, but ten series losses from 11 tells us that’s not the case.
However this idea that Queenslanders never lie down, never admit defeat, never *insert a teary-eyed Phil Gould-ism here*, is a bit overdone.
The reality is that this champion team tend to do what they need to do to win. And at this point, they’ve won. A whitewash would be nice, and the chance to send Corey Parker out as a winner would be great.
But regardless of the outcome tonight, Cameron Smith is going to be presented with the shield. And you can’t say that doesn’t lessen their motivation at least a little bit.
For the Blues however, this is their future.
If they lose tonight, you would have to put question marks over the Origin futures of around half the team, and the final year of coach Laurie Daley’s contract would likely be worth less than the paper it’s written on.
So the players will be doing it for Laurie. They’ll also be doing it for retiring captain Paul Gallen. But more importantly, Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings, Josh Mansour, Robbie Farah, Josh Jackson, James Tamou, Andrew Fifita and Matt Moylan are doing it for themselves. Win, or likely don’t get picked next year.
And while we’ll talk about passion and the desire to wear the jersey being the ultimate motivation, the $30,000 match fee – for a total of 90 grand over the course of the 2017 series – would have to be a pretty decent carrot to get the win tonight.
Motivation and history aside, the Blues also have the personnel on board to finish the 2016 series on a high.
Perhaps I should have added another ‘what if’ to those above: what if James Tedesco had been there from Game 1?
The Tigers fullback is having an amazing season, one that’s set to net him a seven-figure per year contract, and had he not been injured just prior to the first match of the season, well… But no, enough torturing ourselves with hypotheticals.
Jack Bird had a decent first outing for NSW in Game 2, and seeing him in the halves and getting his hands on the ball more often can only be a good thing.
Then there’s Andrew Fifita’s promise to square up with the Maroons players who were giving him lip after fulltime for Game 2, telling Fairfax Media, “I go back to Game 2 and the looks on their faces and we were getting [verbally] sprayed, a few of us were getting sprayed, I have just put it in the memory bank for Game 3.
“The looks on their faces and a few of the guys just staring down the barrel. I don’t want to do into too much detail but it is the memory bank and I can’t wait until Wednesday night.”
Ominous words from Fifita (and one of the rare interviews I’ve read from him where he didn’t say “This is who I am” – seriously, he repeats it that often, you worry he’s just reassuring himself, “Yes, I am Andrew Fifita, aren’t I?”).
Ultimately I can see the Maroons coming into this game slightly undercooked, and this desperate NSW side will ambush them.
It won’t be Blues blow-out, but it won’t be a Maroonwash either. NSW will do enough to earn the win, send Paul Gallen out on top, and keep a handful of representative careers alive.
John
Guest
Surely NSW can't say they won this game fair and square considering they had at least an extra 2 players on their side! What happened last night should have a spotlight shone on those refs and other officials who have obviously engineered this disgraceful game. Only one team came there to play football,not hard to guess who! Like most of the NRL games only a couple of teams are worth watching so I will prefer AFL from now on.
The EYE-BALL Opinion
Roar Pro
Well Joe, I have to eat humble pie ... but if you believe that game was not rigged in the first half, then I throw the pie back in your face. Never have I seen a lop sided penalty count in SOO ... and some were so ordinary, both Sutton and Cummins showed no mercy or gave each other a wink or two. On the back of that NRL is definetly on its last throws ... referees and ARCHER who condones the tactic of trying to make tight games via penalties should be disbarred. The forward pass in the Fizzel try was appealed by players yet ignored. The Jennings off-side but played no part - since when is chasing after a ball from an off-side position playing no part? In all fairness a NSW victory might save the SOO concept for another year ot two - but Club football is a joke when rating referee performances - this SOO game is the worst all year and yet nobody can touch these guys - not the players, the Coaches, the Clubs, only the fans on sites like this. I am filled with bile - I don't blame NSW players ... just the corrupted NRL and its ability to forge any positive spin to overcome itself when faced with instances that represent pathetic referee decisions.
Morgan
Guest
If you’re wanting to watch the game on TV, as previously mentioned it is exclusive to the Nine Network. It will be shown live on Channel 9 and also on 9HD, with coverage to begin at 7:30pm (AEST), and finishing at 10:30pm (AEST). Live @ https://t.co/mYo151jVOf
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Sad to say but I think Daley is in a lose/lose outcome. If the Maroons win, whitewash. he has to go. If the Blues win, why weren't these young guns brought in sooner after all, most only made it because of injuries and were not first choices. Bye Daley.
mikayla
Guest
I can not belive that the blues won in game 3
Dave_S
Guest
agree, these games are usually so close that the difference is the in the one-percenters performed by key position players. Has any team in league history had 3 key-position players like JT, Smith andCronk to do the one-percenters? Plenty have come close but I can't think of one that's better.
Raugeee
Guest
Game 3 2007 - Graham Murray shifted Greg Bird to 5/8. He had a blinder, man-of-the-match. QLD had an amazing 3 injuries in the first 33 min. Hazem El Masri, in his only Origin match, had a perfect night with the boot and NSW won by 14. I don't think attitude was a problem for Qld that night. 2009 - from a lot of sources, QLDs attitude to Game 3 was very lax. A convincing win to the NSW Blues ensued. I believe the Maroons got the rounds of the kitchen. Game 3 2010 showed no signs of complacency. 2016 - the chance for this aging QLD side to go 3 - 0 may not come up again. I don't reckon attitude will be a problem with either side.
matth
Guest
Agree, in general the team with the best players win. QLD in the Lewis, Meninga, Miles, etc era NSW in the Lazarus, Daley, Stuart, Clyde, era NSW in the Fittler, Johns era QLd in the Lockyer, Slater, Inglis, Cronk, Smith era There have, of course been exceptions, but in general this is the case
toputz
Guest
Hope QLD get an average sore from the 2014 and 2015 game 3 scores And QLD new victory song is Tedesco, Tedesco, Tedesco, Tedesco, Tedesco,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Richard Maybury
Guest
Yeah except that the organisers have arranged for Paul's tribute to be done pre-game to avoid the even further embarrassment of celebrating a Captain with a 10 losses to 1 win record. So unfortunately we won't get the gratification of seeing him sent off with a humiliating thrashing that is looking increasingly likely. What really bothers me is the massive lost opportunity to use this dead rubber to our advantage as a preparation for next year and opportunity to try something new. Bye Bye Paul because despite what you say, I think you have taken more from the NSW Blues than you ever gave.
Worrier
Guest
Is there a reason BJ Leilua is not in the team (is he not eligible?). Not a huge fan of Blake F, done nothing and gets caught out in defence a lot. I have lost a lot of interest in Origin, I support NSW but not hard out (I'm a kiwi) and games just seem so frustrating. Cam Smith gets away with holding players down and seems to be a lot of inconsistent calls from refs. Blues will give false hope and come out strong but not get over the try line and lose from there...
Pedro the Maroon
Guest
Some gold from an article on another website: "tonight’s match features plenty of tasty sports morsels. It’s Paul Gallen’s last game, for one. The warrior forward – criticised essentially for being one of the common denominators in NSW’s 10 losing series – will play his last game of bash-n-barge super-lung power-forward action with occasional forays into five-eighth. The supporter group “Blatchy’s Blues” – like “The Fanatics” but less organised and lots less annoying – will be exhorted to turn out in big numbers and “Do it for Gal”. There’s a promotion in which blue-bewigged Blatchy boys can bring a mate for 30 bucks. Yet I’m not sure Gallen inspires that sort of adoration. Respect, for sure. But love? Would punters do it for Gal? Lot of Blues fans – and it’s not like I’ve done a poll – will be just as well shot of him. Could be wrong. Don’t think I am."
The EYE-BALL Opinion
Roar Pro
As a member of the 'bad winners' state – yes, it must be true because the Captain of NSW SOO team said it so ... let me say, odds are diminishing on a NSW victory in a game, and also a series… some day ... maybe. But not with Daley as Coach, or Gallen as Captain, or Bozo anywhere the selection mantle. Football games are generally won by the best team, the QLD team is a champion team, but also contains many champion players. The main difference between NSW and QLD is that NSW whilst having their fair share of champion players, they are not nor never will be a champion team unless some changes are made to the administration in charge for the last 11 years or so. Of all the game plans they have tried to best this side, execution and faith have been their downfall. For mine, Fifita is a player to build the NSW team around, give him responsibility and watch him grow from being a hazard and liability player, to a leader who leads from the front. Gould was right, selfish plays by ‘stuck in the mud’ players who turn up every year to have the same result inflicted has cost NSW. Sorry Joe, you should have listened to you head and not you heart on this one. Bird and Maloney, a Sharks connection by all means, but up against Cronk and Thurston... can Bird kick a football? Ferguson - why oh why? Two of the best centres in the game Morris and Morris ... where are they? Farrah ... hell Ennis and his Shark connection makes more sense. Any belief in a NSW victory tonight is all about 'hope' - not based on any game assessment where NSW has better players or is a better team, or even better coached. Nobody wants to deny 'hope' to anyone, if we did … that would make us 'bad winners'.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
That would be once in 33.3 years then.
Kaks
Roar Guru
Disagree, the NSW forwards have won the battle on mutliple occasions, however the halves have let the team down. Thats why those three QLDers are always mentioned, they are the difference between the two teams and are the reason why QLD dominate origin. The myth that QLD as a whole just do it better is just that, a myth. The QLD halves just do it better. It's easy to say that "QLD has more passion" and "Just do it better" when they have three once in a hundred year players in their team at the same time.
spruce moose
Guest
You know, Queensland did win games before these 3 players. Queensland's dominance is due to much more than these 3 players. Starting from the team structure and admin all the way down to the waterboys, Queensland just do it that little bit better at the moment.
MrJSquishy
Roar Pro
...since 2006...
Kaks
Roar Guru
"I’m a bit torn as to whether these guys will provide the fearless spark that gets NSW more tries and a victory, or the inexperience that gets masterfully exploited by JT, Smith, and Cronk!" Great point, and there lies the answer. NSW wont win because we dont have a JT, Smith or Cronk.
curaeus
Guest
I'm sure Teddy will do his best to get a win for NSW but he can't do it alone despite the fawning press suggesting he's some kind of footballing messiah! That said, I think this NSW team is a better balanced outfit than we've had for a long time and will win another tight contest
Diplomatt
Guest
Josh Reynolds?