AFL Trade Rumours: The South will feast again

The AFL’s Trade and Free Agency period this season is once again set to be dominated by the exchange of players between the northern and southern states clubs, with GWS and their horde of opportunity-starved youngsters leading the way.

The Giants will no doubt once again see multiple players look to move south this season in search of greater playing opportunities as their strong form and wealth of senior talent continues to put the squeeze on their youth’s ability to get games and develop.

Jack Steele, Adam Tomlinson, Cameron McCarthy and most likely Caleb Marchbank all appear exceedingly likely to seek trades away from the club. Steele and Marchbank are both out of contract, Tomlinson and McCarthy both sought and were denied trades last year.

Meanwhile the likes of Jonathon Patton, Paul Ahern, Jarrod Pickett, Will Hoskin-Elliott, James Stewart and Jake Barrett will all likely have questions asked about them by opposition clubs as well, though only Barrett of these five is out of contract.

The good news for the Giants is they’re not really losing any locked-in best 22 talent here, with only Patton of those listed being a regular player for the Giants this season – and hardly their most important. It would be a hit to their depth if some or most of these players depart, but they’ll get plenty of currency back in exchange.

There’s three things the Giants are going to be looking for: Picks in this year’s draft and next so they can build up points with which to draft academy players, mature recruits, and most intriguingly, the No.1 draft pick.

The Giants drafted nothing but academy players last year and it looks like that could once again be the case with plenty of talent available to them this year.

Will Setterfield and Harry Perryman, versatile players who can feature in multiple areas of the ground, look to be the leading prospects for them at this stage will Setterfield a strong chance to feature in the top ten of the draft. Also in the mix, tall defender Harrison Macreadie, midfielder Kobe Mutch, and possibly some others as well.

They’ll want plenty of points, though they already have a significant amount saved up through trading in future picks in last year’s trade period. They go into this trade period with the first round picks attached to Collingwood and Geelong’s positions already in hand.

Whether or not the Giants will land a mature recruit is a more open question. They have consistently added mature talent to their list from other clubs over the last few years, recruiting the likes of Shane Mumford, Heath Shaw, Joel Patful and Steve Johnson. We know they’re looking for a small forward, with Fremantle’s Michael Walters being a high priority, as part of a potential deal for Cam McCarthy – however, given Walters’ strong ties to the Dockers and Ross Lyon, that particular scenario seems unlikely.

The No.1 draft pick, though, that is a very serious, very realistic possibiity and would be a significant deal in the history of the comp. It hasn’t been traded since 2001, when Fremantle sent it to Hawthorn in a deal for Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin (it didn’t work out great for them). The Hawks used it to pick Luke Hodge and the rest is history.

Essendon will, barring an unexpected turn of events, have the No.1 pick this season but for the first time in a long time there really is no clear standout talent in the draft, with a handful of different players potentially in line.

Essendon have already indicated a willingness to trade the top pick, possibly for a deal that would find them a mature key forward partner for Joe Daniher. Jonathon Patton – a former No.1 pick himself – would be a perfect acquisition in this case, if he were willing to join the Bombers, and the deal could involve other players and picks as well. It might not need to involve Patton at all.

Imagine that – the Giants could very well be coming off a preliminary final or grand final appearance or even a premiership, and yet find themselves holding the No.1 draft pick regardless. It’s a scary thought. But they’re in a unique position to make a deal with Essendon that would be worth their while.

Of course the Giants aren’t the only club set to lose some northern talent this off-season, Gold Coast are the other big one, with star players Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara both seeming virtual certainties to request trades to Victoria.

Prestia is reported to have settled on Richmond as his preferred destination, with O’Meara is still on the ‘open market’ as such, and no doubt every club in the state will have to consider the possibility of getting him in.

The concern of course with O’Meara in particular but also Prestia to a lesser degree is injury – can a club buy them with confidence? Gold Coast will demand a high price regardless of their fitness so if a club is going to bring them in, they’d want to be absolutely certain they can get them back into regular footy.

The Suns also have some academy prospects this year with midfielder Jack Bowes likely to be the first player bidded on from any academy. They too have traded in a wealth of picks for the 2016 draft so won’t necessarilly need more, however, that’s the currency they’re most likely to get.

Sydney also look set to lose one of their young stars to the south this off-season with Tom Mitchell yet to re-sign and seeming more and more likely to make a move to a Victorian club, with Hawthorn the most likely definition.

The Swans have a lot of top-end talent on lengthy contracts so it is all things considered not really a surprise that they’re going to lose a good player to salary cap squeeze. Mitchell’s occasional difficulty retaining a spot in the side and rumours of a rift with coach Longmire make this one no big surprise.

Remarkably after many seasons of leaking talent to the southern states, the Brisbane Lions might be the club least affected this year after successfully re-signing a former top ten draft pick in Sam Mayes. Their only headache is 2014 Rising Star winner Lewis Taylor who is out of contract and reportedly wants nearly half a million per season.

With all this talent coming south, the big question is, where will it all land? It’s difficult to say at this stage with Prestia to Richmond and Mitchell to Hawthorn the only strong links between players and clubs that have really been made to date.

The Hawks have been one of the most regularly mentioned clubs and it seems a given that they will manage to land at least one big piece and maybe two. They used two first-round draft picks last year meaning they don’t need to use another one for three years, so could trade both their 2016 and 2017 firsts this off-season.

However their salary cap must also come into question. They were largely kept out of the trade period last year by simply not having enough room to make a competitive offer, so surely something has to give this season if they’re to bring in a big name? With a number of their veterans yet to re-sign, will we see a handful of heroes forced to retire – or even move elsewhere, Steve Johnson-style – to make room for some next gen talent?

One thing looks certain – with so many talented players looking to come to Victoria, there will be room for most if not every Victorian club to go to the well and see what they bring up. Who lands where, what they wind up costing their new club, and what impact they ultimately have for them, will be the big story of the 2016 Trade and Free Agency period.