After peering through a thicket of expectations, media coverage, medal tallies and more media coverage, it’s refreshing to take a few minutes off thinking about our Olympic team to consider the Wallabies.
Did Cate and Bronte Campbell choke? Did they just underperform? Are we supposed to just be happy they tried hard?
Has the Australian swim team failed to adjust to racing late at night? Are they trying to hold peak form for too long?
Maybe Olympic competition is really, really hard and that’s it?
Have the Australian track cycling team underperformed? Is the string of placings outside the medals bad luck in a sport measured to hundredths of a second, or are they failing?
It’s all so much easier to consider the Wallabies. They are coming off a three-nil flogging, composed largely of players from Super Rugby teams that for the most part struggled to live up to the price of admission.
No wavering illusions of grandeur here.
A whitewash and poor provincial play is the state of things heading into the first Rugby Championship weekend.
The main debates inside the country about the Wallabies currently: are our two best players – David Pocock and Israel Folau – even in the right position for the team to perform? How many of the Dad’s Army should be played?
It’s all so much clearer than asking what leads the best swimmer in the world to freeze for less than half a second on the blocks, panic in the first leg, go faster than world-record pace at the turn, and then fade badly late to finish outside the medal?
This is much easier than whether we honestly evaluate the likelihood of Anna Meares, at 32 years old, winning every race she entered by a bike-length on the way to an onslaught of gold. Or is she really the flag bearer because she represents a long career of excellence, perseverance and, of course, medals on the international stage, but isn’t likely to be quite as quick this year as in 2012.
With the Wallabies, things are simpler. Yes, we should pick every Dad’s Army player who is better than their counterparts from the English series. No, Folau isn’t a great centre yet. Yes, we do need David Pocock and Michael Hooper on the field together, and yes, New Zealand are huge favourites to win every game against us in the foreseeable future.
Actually, there is one non-confusing Olympic moment that correlates well.
That now infamous image of Usain Bolt pulling ahead in the 100 metres and juuust easing up enough to look across the field a huge grin on his face.
Usain Bolt is New Zealand right now. Justin Gatlin (leaving doping out of this) is either England or South Africa. The Wallabies are the next of the futile chasers.
New Zealand are grinning. The Wallabies are puffing, working and striving.
Steve Hansen has the luxury of taking a jab at Australia, about whatever he wants really, because he does have a wealth of sparkly jewels to choose from across the park. On the other hand, Michael Cheika is trying to squeeze the best out of what he has, which hasn’t been much this year.
If we want to catch them, it’ll need to come on a bad day – even Bolt false started his way out of a World Championships final.
But as it stands, the Wallabies are looking ahead trying to pass them, but really just getting close enough to catch a glimpse of that cheesy grin.
New Zealand haven’t had the greatest track record in Sydney in recent years, but that’s like saying Bolt is nearing 30 and probably doesn’t take kindly to running twice on the same day now. Trying to manufacture a reason why the clearly dominant partner isn’t the clear favourite works until you look at the context.
Yes, Bolt is older. But his nearest competitor, Gatlin, is older still and hasn’t won since 2004.
The All Blacks may have a few untested combinations and might need to iron those out, and they haven’t played well in Sydney recently. But the Wallabies haven’t won anything of significance since 2011 and most of their players, due to appalling Super Rugby play, have enough cobwebs of their own to worry about. And the Wallabies also only just broke a streak of All Black wins in Sydney that ran almost all the way through the Robbie Deans years.
In the first Rugby Championship clash this weekend, I hope Cheika sticks to what I outlined above: get your best players on the field. After that, I’m simply looking for more intelligence than the boneheaded and overawed play we saw against England.
This week I’m going to enjoy the clarity of watching the Wallabies. We’re rank outsiders against a team that still has the hallmarks of greatness in its ranks.
If we catch the All Blacks on a false-start day, we might nab a classic victory. If not, of course we’ll just have to settle for parsing the grey areas of whatever performance we see on the night.
And unlike the Olympics, we’ll only have to wait one more week for the rematch.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes agree Rick, our slow starts are all too familiar. For me a lot depends on what the northern ozzies bring to the table if they're selected. If they're lacking what's required at the level this could blow out. But if they play to or near their best from the past they could make the difference. A lot hinges on their performances because the rest of the side don't have the firepower to hold this AB side off.
Rick Page
Guest
From and AB fan, I see this as a very dangerous game for the AB’s. They have shown a consistent propensity to be vulnerable first up against WB’s in Aus. They don’t hit a peak in intensity early in their campaigns but there’ll be no lack of intensity from WB’s in Sydney. This is a WB must win, go to Wgtn and Eden Park one down and they havn’t a hope in hell for Bledisloe. I have questions about Fekitoa's consistency and Naholo's mistakes in defence and weakness under the high ball - he'll be tested. AB's have lost something in backline stability, and potency, Nonu tended to be the most damaging runner against Aus. Thank god Barrett starts, right now he's as influential as Carter at his best and improved his goal kicking its seems, there'll only be a few points in it I reckon Dagg isn't influential like Ben Smith at the back but his boot will be great but no Milner Scudder + Savea out of form weakens our back 3 overall, whereas WB's backs are strengthened overall by experience. It comes back to that peak intensity - from the forwards. If AB's don't dominate they lose. WB's have the makings of a good pack, solid front row and big locks, they should have a good scrum but lineout? Mistake if they keep playing Pocock at 8 against AB's loosies, he's no Keiran Reid but is the world's best 7, McMahon at 8 and Hooper off the bench - Hooper and Cooper are actually finishers Cheika!
CUW
Guest
noo way maaan , bob marley is da king maaan iron lion zion , respect maaan :) to put simply, Bolt is an athlete, Marley is a religion !!! ( i mean people who cant speak or read english will sing no woman no cry ? :P ) btw did u know that snoop dogg changed his name to snoop lion and claimed he is the reincarnation of marley?? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2181743/Snoop-Dogg-changes-Snoop-Lion-says-Bob-Marley-reincarnated.html
tsuru
Guest
Kind of getting off topic I know . . . but someone pondered the other day as to whether Usain Bolt was a bigger hero in Jamaica than Bob Marley. I wonder is there a New Zealand analogy - ABs and Flight of the Conchords or Kiri Te Kanawa ??
tsuru
Guest
I'd like to suggest that you read Nicholas Bishop's piece this week about steel and mettle for a perspective on the kicking woes of the Wallabies against England. In fact I recommend it to anyone who hasn't yet read it. And I'll avoid any reference to troglodytes and darkness as it would be cheap and technically invalid.
sulzberg
Guest
Genia, Cooper, AAC, Drew Mitchell, Giteau. That's it, rush back all the old-timers who have spent the last decade failing to get their hands on the Cup. They want to tempt Chris Latham or Stirling Mortlock out of retirement while they're at it?
taylorman
Roar Guru
As opposed to every kid on the planet that has a set of starting blocks in his wardrobe, no, I suppose not.
Timbo
Roar Rookie
'Bolt is lucky to be compared to them. It’s no shame to be beaten by the ABs.' I suppose it's possible that the most recognised and famous sports person on the planet, who would struggle to walk down any street on the globe without being mobbed, might be in awe of the mighty All Blacks. Alternatively, it might just be possible that when asked what he thought of the ABs he could reply, 'Who?'. Whisper it quietly, but, as much as we all love rugby on this site, I'm not sure that the ABs are revered as Gods in Jamaica; or indeed the vast majority of countries where rugby is either a very minor sport or unheard of.
CUW
Guest
on other news, Australia has lost its number one ranking in test cricket after losing to sri lanka 3:0 in the recent test series. ICC Test rankings 1 India (112 points), 2 Pakistan (111), 3 Australia (108), 4 England (108), 5 New Zealand (99), 6 Sri Lanka (95), 7 South Africa (92), 8 West Indies (65), 9 Bangladesh (57), 10 Zimbabwe (8) If India fail to beat West Indies in 4th test, Pakistan will become the No. 1 ranked Test side for the first time.
stubs
Roar Rookie
This. So much clarity here.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Thanks CUW... I had heard about this, and also Usain's criticism about the scheduling of the semis so close to the final. It's not surprising then that the times reflected this. Should be interesting to see the time Usain does in the 200m final... should be a good 'un!
Akari
Roar Rookie
Thank you, EP, for a well needed positive outlook of things to come. Why is it we have to go thru a Thursday and Friday this week in particular before we get to game day?
Akari
Roar Rookie
Kepu has seen the light and come home. You could add him to the mix, me thinks.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Folau wore the number 13 for about half the season Horse. But he basically played like a roving fullback anyway, as he defended all but 3 games at the back and would vary his positioning in attack. As for McCalman. Does the combination of McCalman and Pocock's attributes add more than Pocock and Hooper? We lose nothing in Pocock's game by him playing at 8. He plays his natural game and just packs at the back of scrums. Does McCalman offer more than Hooper?
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Thanks EP. Having got sucked into the Olympic vortex and with no rugby last weekend, it seems a little strange heading into this Saturday with so much other stuff going on around it. Looking forward to that focus shifting in the next couple of games and to what should be a fascinating match. I expect the Wallabies to play well, but I'm dubious that they haven't had enough recent rugby.
CUW
Guest
only difference is , i cant think of Bolt losing any race that matters , other than the one time he was DQ ed at world championships, thus breaking a threepeat. if i recall correct Yoahan Blake won that final in 100m. in fact that was the only time, the new IAAF regulation to evict a "jumper" has been questioned. ( in case u did not know, before a jumper of the gun got a warning and if he did it it twice got evicted. however they correctly said it took too much time , becoz if all 8 jumped at different times, the race will be re-started 8 times. and then only they will start evicting runners from the 9th time !!!)
CUW
Guest
@ Machooka : re: the 100m race, both Bolt and Gatlin have complained that the short turnover between semi and final was the reason , there was no fast time or the appearance of both runners being tired. apparently the timing was set to make sure the main tv station NBC had prime time exposure to the blue ribband event. the explantion seems to be that they pay the highest money to Olympics. so it seems my frnd, it not just rugger that panders to the whims of tv companies :) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3742102/Bolt-says-tight-schedule-slowed-100-meter-sprinters.html
chucked
Guest
The analogy between Bolt and NZ and the rest of the field is a classic, but deadly true. Bolt should win most times, if on his game - but if he's off for a split second, the Wallabies will pounce.
Crazy Horse
Roar Pro
IMHO Cheika has to try something different. Play an actual No 8 such as McCalman at 8, Pocock in his actual position at 7. Give Folau a go in the Centres where he played all season and Haylett Petty at Fullback.
Perthstayer
Roar Rookie
JJ - Love your work there. Only needs a simple approach, just shows how people over complicate it.