Well, here we are! Player movement begins today, the AFL’s silly season is officially open, and for the next two weeks we can all dream that a big deal might be just around the corner.
Free agency officially opens today at 10am (AEDT), though it’s not clear yet whether we’ll see any players at all sign deals on the first day.
Before we get into that though, let me introduce you to a few new pages we’ve made here on The Roar that should make keeping up to date with free agency and trades a breeze.
Firstly, there’s our complete list of all the trade rumours. Does exactly what it says on the tin – everything that’s even semi-reputable is listed here and we’ll be updating it regularly with the latest news.
Secondly, we’ve got a complete list of all 2016 free agents. That will help you keep track of who is still on the market, who has moved, who has re-signed, and who has retired.
Lastly, we’ve got a complete list of all trades and free agency moves. There’s nothing here just yet! But soon there will be, so if you want to see everything in one place, that’s the page for you.
So, who is likely to move on this first day of free agency? At the moment, there’s really only three free agent signings that I’m confident will get done at some point – Tyrone Vickery to Hawthorn, and Chris Mayne and Daniel Wells to Collingwood.
There’s a few others potentially in the mix to move, but clear destinations for them haven’t arisen yet – guys like Ricky Henderson, Nathan Brown, Jack Grimes, Mitch Brown. So don’t expect to see them signing anything today.
Wells won’t get done today – he’ll go to North’s best and fairest tonight before announcing any move. So that leaves Vickery and Mayne as the players who might officially sign today, the former being more likely than the latter.
Mayne as an unrestricted free agent will move across as soon as the deal is signed. Vickery on the other hand needs to wait for Richmond to decline to match Hawthorn’s offer – and they have three days in which to do so, so it could drag on.
Another free agent, Zac Clarke, is looking likely to turn his back on other clubs’ offers and stick with his current team, the Fremantle Dockers.
Will Minson, an unrestricted free agent, has confirmed that he won’t be at the Western Bulldogs next year – he’ll either sign with a new club, or retire.
Speaking of ruckmen, Ivan Maric has gone in the opposite direction and signed a one-year deal to stay with Richmond in 2017.
All things considered free agency looks likely to be only the sideshow of player movement this year. Things will really hit first gear when trading opens on Monday.
Some big news on the trade market from yesterday is that Hamish Hartlett has rejected Port Adelaide’s suggestions that he could find a trade, and both club and player have agreed that he will stay put and play for the Power in 2017.
Matthew Lobbe is also looking unlikely to move at this stage – while his manager said there were a few clubs interested, there don’t seem to be any really hot opportunities at this stage, and without the promise of being the lead ruck, Lobbe probably won’t move.
That leaves some potential headaches for Port Adelaide as it’s believed their salary cap is being pushed close to breaking point, and they are also desperately seeking additional draft picks to bring young talent into their club.
If Hartlett and Lobbe don’t want to leave then Port will either have to find another big name to trade, or find a way to fit everyone in under the salary cap and accept that they won’t get any extra draft picks.
That’s a task made all the more difficult by the fact that the AFL is still yet to finalise a new collective bargaining agreement, leaving clubs flying blind when it comes to what the salary cap will be in 2017 and beyond.
A further part of the problem for Port is that the issue seems to be caused at least partly by them having signed many players to contracts that appear overly long and lucrative – making it difficult to interest other clubs in taking them on.
What they wind up doing in the off-season will no doubt be worth following.
Fremantle are another club set for a fascinating off-season that will shape the future of their list, and part of that is the expected departure of Michael Barlow.
Barlow is now being reported to have drawn some interest from the Gold Coast Suns as they look to add mature midfielders to their side.
Not to toot my own horn, but it’s a move I predicted six weeks ago – while Barlow probably wants to go Victoria, Gold Coast just makes sense as the club that is going to be most willing to offer him a good contract and has the trade currency to get Fremantle onside.
One deal that seems just about done is Jack Frost moving from Collingwood to Brisbane on a three-year deal, with both the Lions and Frost’s management confirming the proposed move.
The two clubs just need to work out a trade now, and it’s not likely to be anything more than a token pick late in the draft.
However the Lions have made a bold move by putting their No.2 draft pick on the table for potential trade discussions.
It’s understood they’re not looking for mature players but rather might be willing to trade it in a deal that they feel betters their overall draft position.
That looms as something for GWS to pursue if they are unsuccessful in making a deal with Essendon for the No.1 selection.
It could also potentially be a part of their discussions with Gold Coast and maybe involved in the mooted Pearce Hanley deal.
Two of the biggest deals of the off-season, Jaeger O’Meara to Hawthorn and Dion Prestia to Richmond, aren’t likely to be done until late in the piece with the Suns saying yesterday that neither deal is near completion.
Adelaide are reportedly set to make a move for West Coast’s Eric Mackenzie, looking at him as a potential addition to their defence. Crows coach Don Pyke worked with Mackenzie when he was an assistant at the Eagles.
GWS’ Jake Barrett appears likely to move clubs if he can get an offer, after playing only one senior game in three years – and fellow Giant Jack Steele is still weighing up his options, but seems likely to request a trade to St Kilda.
Aaron Black’s management has declared he will depart North Melbourne this season despite being contracted for 2017, with Fremantle and Port Adelaide rumoured to be possible destinations.
Arky
Guest
Definitely a "have to make finals in 2017 or I'm sacked, so who cares about carrying that contract on our books in 2019?" kind of recruitment decision.
Don Freo
Guest
Keep watching. Those two are gems. I'm talking about outside pace and skill. Hill is good but these 2 have no ceiling. Then there are the inside young guns like Blakely and Balic. Brad Hill will release Stephen to where he can shine. He is a wiz in the pack and his best work is inside. He has the uncanny ability to dispose best when he is under pressure. His clearance stuff is great.That's where 2nd tier players like Brad Hill are so useful. They release the stars to have a freer rein.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
Don, that's actually a good point on the 3 names you mention.. Steven Hill would be the pick of that bunch but you'd have to say B Hill would rank above Langdon and Weller, surely!
Macca
Guest
"You just need to discern whether it is a football conversation or whether I am just talking to Macca." So the question is why do you bother saying things that by your own admission are "an awful lot of nonsense" and repeatedly emabarrass yourself just to talk to me? I mean I am flattered at the lengths you go to just to get my attention but I would talk to you even if you made sense Don,
Macca
Guest
What a fantastic insight into Don Freo's mind- a player says he wants to move to Melbourne to be closer to his girlfriend an he interprets that as he just can't wait to get back to Perth further away from his girlfriend
Don Freo
Guest
Brad Hill will be an accidental pick up. Freo has many like him and Stephen Hill, Weller and Langdon are actually better. Freo will accomodate his desire to come but it might be next year, not this year. It wouldn't surprise me if The Hawks try to trade him elsewhere to try to get their trades done.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
You're right Don... I think I will! Actually, what's the latest on Brad Hill joining the Dockers? I'd almost forgotten about that trade! But he's likely to join the Dockers right? How/where do you see him fitting in? PS I have a lot of time for Macca knowing he's from south west Victoria... salt of the earth types from down that way
Don Freo
Guest
I don't get upset with anyone. Talking about sport is a fun thing. Try it, you'll like it. You just need to discern whether it is a football conversation or whether I am just talking to Macca.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
Of course not, but you shouldn't get your back up if someone calls you out when you make a rubbish comment... So, by rubbish in this case I meant your point about the Hawks giving up those 4 names for Vickery... when you entered that coment the Hawks had already put in an offer which was cash only, no trades... so you think Tiges should go back and say 'yeah, nice, but we also want these 4 players who have combined +500 games under their belts'... so yes, it's a pretty rubbish call by you and I'm happy to stand by that. Don't get me wrong, I do agree with a lot of your other points, especially your insight on Freo amongst other things.. a week or so ago in an article about Freo having lost it you mentioned all of Freo's outs for 2016, and I was in total agreeance with you, but I did ask (from memory) about Ross and his coaching style and how they'd get along in 2017... and I got where you were coming from with your response Lastly, re my opinion quote below, it was regarding a comment about 'if the Roar want's to be a reputable news site'... I was stating that this is not a news site... quite simple to comprehend really, Don, not sure you could argue against that.
Swannies
Guest
Reckon Swans need to trade Buddy to the Bulldogs for Boyd and Bontempelli. They would be invincible then. Getting sick of waiting...2012 has been a long time now. The premiers of 2016 were very unlucky and will get their reward in 2017. Karma will see to that.
dave
Guest
Yep understand but it still feels like we are giving away something for a player we will likely get for buckleys. However If we still get the player we want with pick5 and make a few other clubs happy in the process It may benefit us when trying for future trades. Because at the moment GWS really don't like us.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Fanboys- pathetic attempt at a personal attack. Read my comment that does not say "set for ten years" but says our backline will look good for the next 5 - 10 years with the young crop they have. You really are just a pathetic troll.
mattyb
Guest
Col,I certainly think fanboys are entitled to an opinion as much as anyone but Carlton need to stay patient as a whole to succeed,fanboys included. This draft is crucial,as is who to delist both this year and next. Any talk of set for ten years this early in the peace is doing the club a huge disservice. I understand loving Gibbs,SOS etc but set for ten years is way overs,it is still possible Carlton could slide next year,one year at a time surely.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Steve, I don't know if he is going or staying and I cannot understand why North are offering him that sort of deal. He is a good honest player but certainly not a $600k for 4 years player. I have heard that Geelong have also shown interest so the more the merrier - it just makes our position better in any deals. I agree he is not worth pick 11 but is better than their second rounder. They obviously rate him to put that kind of offer to him. Maybe their pick 11 and we throw in our second round pick. It is just too hard to put a value on something that might not even happen. Whatever happens our backline looks strong for the next 5 - 10 years with Docherty, Weitering, Plowman, Marchbank and Byrne to come back after rehab. Just need a taller type big bodied player to take over from Rowe.
steve
Guest
Col, I don't know if he wants out but I certainly think its more than likely he will leave. The longer he goes without signing points to it. Where he goes and what we get for him remains up in the air. Geelong don't have anything to offer, NM 's pick 11 is overs but their second rounder is under's , then Sydney could be an option if they have interest, with their pick 17 or a deal involving Tom Mitchell if he cant get to the Hawks.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
But you must know what he has decided because in your original post you said he wanted out. Just another of your good deal that is now not a good deal comments - pathetic. PaulD summed you up perfectly yeasterday - just someone who has an irrational grudge. My advice to you is enjoy your grand final victory and give up on your sick obsession of trying to bait Carlton supporters because we see you for what you are.
mattyb
Guest
No...If Carlton are not willing to pay what is now market value he wants out,if he stays he wants in,there isn't really any middle ground here. Your either in or your out,the reason is secondary and yes he needs to decide what is best and that's whether he wants in or out.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Matty if you are going to continually comment on anything to do with Carlton please make sure you have the facts. Tuohy does not want out of Carlton and has stated his preference is to stay there, but when other clubs are offering over the top deals (4 years @ $600k) then obviously he needs to consider it. Carlton have offered him a 3 year deal for less money so he needs to decide what is best for him.
Don Freo
Guest
O'Meara is worth a lot more than Barlow and a second round pick. Gold Coast would not even look at such an offer. More like Rioli and a first round.
AB
Guest
How about a three-way swap: Hill to Freo; Barlow and Hawthorn's second-round pick to Gold Coast; O'meara to Hawthorn?