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Well, here we are! Player movement begins today, the AFL’s silly season is officially open, and for the next two weeks we can all dream that a big deal might be just around the corner.
Free agency officially opens today at 10am (AEDT), though it’s not clear yet whether we’ll see any players at all sign deals on the first day.
Before we get into that though, let me introduce you to a few new pages we’ve made here on The Roar that should make keeping up to date with free agency and trades a breeze.
Firstly, there’s our complete list of all the trade rumours. Does exactly what it says on the tin – everything that’s even semi-reputable is listed here and we’ll be updating it regularly with the latest news.
Secondly, we’ve got a complete list of all 2016 free agents. That will help you keep track of who is still on the market, who has moved, who has re-signed, and who has retired.
Lastly, we’ve got a complete list of all trades and free agency moves. There’s nothing here just yet! But soon there will be, so if you want to see everything in one place, that’s the page for you.
So, who is likely to move on this first day of free agency? At the moment, there’s really only three free agent signings that I’m confident will get done at some point – Tyrone Vickery to Hawthorn, and Chris Mayne and Daniel Wells to Collingwood.
There’s a few others potentially in the mix to move, but clear destinations for them haven’t arisen yet – guys like Ricky Henderson, Nathan Brown, Jack Grimes, Mitch Brown. So don’t expect to see them signing anything today.
Wells won’t get done today – he’ll go to North’s best and fairest tonight before announcing any move. So that leaves Vickery and Mayne as the players who might officially sign today, the former being more likely than the latter.
Mayne as an unrestricted free agent will move across as soon as the deal is signed. Vickery on the other hand needs to wait for Richmond to decline to match Hawthorn’s offer – and they have three days in which to do so, so it could drag on.
Another free agent, Zac Clarke, is looking likely to turn his back on other clubs’ offers and stick with his current team, the Fremantle Dockers.
Will Minson, an unrestricted free agent, has confirmed that he won’t be at the Western Bulldogs next year – he’ll either sign with a new club, or retire.
Speaking of ruckmen, Ivan Maric has gone in the opposite direction and signed a one-year deal to stay with Richmond in 2017.
All things considered free agency looks likely to be only the sideshow of player movement this year. Things will really hit first gear when trading opens on Monday.
Some big news on the trade market from yesterday is that Hamish Hartlett has rejected Port Adelaide’s suggestions that he could find a trade, and both club and player have agreed that he will stay put and play for the Power in 2017.
Matthew Lobbe is also looking unlikely to move at this stage – while his manager said there were a few clubs interested, there don’t seem to be any really hot opportunities at this stage, and without the promise of being the lead ruck, Lobbe probably won’t move.
That leaves some potential headaches for Port Adelaide as it’s believed their salary cap is being pushed close to breaking point, and they are also desperately seeking additional draft picks to bring young talent into their club.
If Hartlett and Lobbe don’t want to leave then Port will either have to find another big name to trade, or find a way to fit everyone in under the salary cap and accept that they won’t get any extra draft picks.
That’s a task made all the more difficult by the fact that the AFL is still yet to finalise a new collective bargaining agreement, leaving clubs flying blind when it comes to what the salary cap will be in 2017 and beyond.
A further part of the problem for Port is that the issue seems to be caused at least partly by them having signed many players to contracts that appear overly long and lucrative – making it difficult to interest other clubs in taking them on.
What they wind up doing in the off-season will no doubt be worth following.
Fremantle are another club set for a fascinating off-season that will shape the future of their list, and part of that is the expected departure of Michael Barlow.
Barlow is now being reported to have drawn some interest from the Gold Coast Suns as they look to add mature midfielders to their side.
Not to toot my own horn, but it’s a move I predicted six weeks ago – while Barlow probably wants to go Victoria, Gold Coast just makes sense as the club that is going to be most willing to offer him a good contract and has the trade currency to get Fremantle onside.
One deal that seems just about done is Jack Frost moving from Collingwood to Brisbane on a three-year deal, with both the Lions and Frost’s management confirming the proposed move.
The two clubs just need to work out a trade now, and it’s not likely to be anything more than a token pick late in the draft.
However the Lions have made a bold move by putting their No.2 draft pick on the table for potential trade discussions.
It’s understood they’re not looking for mature players but rather might be willing to trade it in a deal that they feel betters their overall draft position.
That looms as something for GWS to pursue if they are unsuccessful in making a deal with Essendon for the No.1 selection.
It could also potentially be a part of their discussions with Gold Coast and maybe involved in the mooted Pearce Hanley deal.
Two of the biggest deals of the off-season, Jaeger O’Meara to Hawthorn and Dion Prestia to Richmond, aren’t likely to be done until late in the piece with the Suns saying yesterday that neither deal is near completion.
Adelaide are reportedly set to make a move for West Coast’s Eric Mackenzie, looking at him as a potential addition to their defence. Crows coach Don Pyke worked with Mackenzie when he was an assistant at the Eagles.
GWS’ Jake Barrett appears likely to move clubs if he can get an offer, after playing only one senior game in three years – and fellow Giant Jack Steele is still weighing up his options, but seems likely to request a trade to St Kilda.
Aaron Black’s management has declared he will depart North Melbourne this season despite being contracted for 2017, with Fremantle and Port Adelaide rumoured to be possible destinations.