Michael Cheika's Russian roulette selections for Eden Park

By David Lord / Expert

Michael Cheika’s Russian roulette selections for tonight’s Wallaby clash with the All Blacks has made it nigh on impossible to break the 30-year drought at Eden Park.

It would require a monumental shock result like Don Bradman’s duck in his last Test innings at The Oval in 1948, needing just four runs to own a career average of 100, for the Wallabies to win tonight.

The Don had to settle for an average of 99.94 on that famous August 14 day, the Wallabies will have to settle for minimising the margin of their defeat.

How the coach can look for a much needed win yet still support Dean Mumm and Nick Phipps in the starting line-up defies description, while naming David Pocock on the bench magnifies the Russian roulette situation.

Mumm should be dressed in his number ones in the stand, Phipps at best on the bench because there isn’t a third halfback good enough to be in the mix, and no Wallaby side should start an international without Pocock if he’s fit to play.

Unthinkable.

Steve Hansen and his All Blacks must be sporting smiles wider than the Sydney Heads as they prepare to reach yet another milestone with a record 18th successive victory.

They never get tired of winning. Since 2012 they have played their long-term rivals 14 times home-and-away to chalk up 11 wins, a loss, and two draws in accumulating a commanding 439 points to 249.

The loss was 27-19 at ANZ in August last year, the two draws were 18-all at Suncorp in 2012, and 12-all at ANZ in 2014.

But apart from those three hiccups, it’s been one-way traffic.

And the only way the All Blacks can be beaten is for the Wallabies to be at full strength and in form. Losing Will Genia back to Stade Francais is critical.

The Wallabies can never afford to carry any passengers.

In the three Test losses to England, the Wallabies scored 75 points, England 106. The Wallabies crossed for ten tries to nine, but their ill-discipline cost them dearly with England landing 15 penalties to five – end of story.

The Wallabies finished second in the Rugby Championship on the strength of one win over the Boks, and two over the Pumas.

In the wash-up, the Wallabies posted 194 points for, and 253 against – hardly riveting.

It was the same one-way traffic against the All Blacks scoring 17 points to 71 – one try to 10.

It was squared away against the Boks, scoring 33 points to 35, and three tries to two.

The only one-way traffic to the Wallabies was at the Pumas’ expense, scoring 69 points to 41, and nine tries to four.

But if the Wallabies couldn’t achieve those stats against Argentina, then forget about trying to compete against New Zealand.

Michael Cheika’s team / the team to beat the All Blacks:

1 – Scott Sio 24 caps / Sio.
2 – Stephen Moore (c) 111 / Moore.
3 – Sekoe Kepu 72 / Keu
4 – Rory Arnoold 5 / Arnold
5 – Adam Coleman 5 / Coleman
6 – Dean Mumm 52 / Timanii
7 – Michael Hooper 60 / Hooper.
8 – Lopeti Timani 2 / Pocock
9 – Nick Phipps 47 / Frisby.
10 – Bernard Foley 36 / Cooper
11 – Henry Speight 5 / Kerevi
12 – Reece Hodge 5 / Hodge
13 – Samu Kerevi 7 / Folau
14 – Dane Haylett-Petty 9 / Naivalu
15 – Israel Folau 47 / Haylett-Petty

16 – James Hanson 11 / Hanson
17 – Tom Robertson 3 / James Slipper 82
18 – Allan Ala’alafoa 4 / Robertson
19 – Rob Simmons 65 / Simmons
20 – David Pocock 60 / Scott Fardy 37
21 – Nick Frisby 2 / Phipps
22 – Quade Cooper 63 / Foley
23 – Sefa Naivalu 5 / Speight

The Crowd Says:

2016-10-22T15:26:04+00:00

Fernando Marzano

Guest


Hello, good morning for everyone I'm from Argentina and I´ve not personal interest in any team, but let me tell you something, DEFINITELY Nigel Owens and the TMO, damaged the game and openly hurt the Wallabies. Until they decided to do not aware the Henry Speight´s Try, the WB'S were much superior than AB's, who were lost in the field. The only thing I could see, is that Speight runs into the space, was over Savea´s line career, and this one had no chance to overtake him. What the judges should have valued if Savea had chances to reach him, to me "NONE". I say more, no one of the AB's, not even his skipper went to complain to the referee, regardless of whether there was a touch, or a small obstruction from behind. I understand that this situation of the game, demoralized the WB's, when they were really playing very well, and had taken over the control of the ball and the playing field., And woke the AB's I wonder how many situations obstruction, much worse than that little touch, happen in a game. It is a shame that this REFEREE already hurt the WB's in the last world cup. I invite you to see the 66 minutes of that game, when the score was 21-17 in favor of AB's. Dave Pocock runs to take the ball, and Ben Smith coming true tackle him without it, and two more blacks men jumping head over the ball. Oh surprise, the referee was Nigel Owen, "play on" One issue that Cheika and his staff will have to solve, and that is an old problem of WB's, are the kicks at goal, the system they are using for a long time ago, and coach kicks. The last player I remember reliable Matt Burke was after him, and Joe Roff, or Mortlock, nor Andrew Walker, and Matt Rodgers, Ni Flatley, neither Cooper nor Foley, have been. I just remember Mike Harris has not played much in the WB's. I think Cheika and company are on the right track, the new players who have joined have performed very well, and only lack a bit of the magic of Kurtley Beale. Oh, and please you people, checked for the play a few minutes later in the Savea´s try, after the Ben Smith kick, Sio is runing to get the ball, and involuntarily Aaron Cruden comes from behind him touching his foot, making him stumble and fall, thereby preventing Scott can get the ball. Is that not olso an illegal obstruction.

2016-10-22T06:48:40+00:00

Lukas

Roar Pro


Frankly I'm getting sick of the know it all whinging and gutter sniping on this site. I love rugby and I love talking about rugby so that's why I've been an avid Roar reader for while, but the heard negativity is really getting to me lately, whether that be the comment threads or the columnists. This is meant to be a game, and talking about said game is meant to be fun. There is a difference between critiquing and relentless negativity. If we were all sitting in the pub together we'd talk about something else if this was the best we could do. Rant over. Night lads, go the Wallabies.

2016-10-22T06:22:34+00:00

Phil Kiwi

Guest


That cracks me up. Punch drunk Cheika laughing,too much humour mate.

2016-10-22T06:19:29+00:00

The Neutral View From Sweden

Roar Guru


Since 2012 they have played their long-term rivals 14 times home-and-away to chalk up 11 wins, a loss and two draws Even if that record sucks, it is still better than any other team have against AB the last five years. Maybe the WB should try something new, like confronting The Haka David Campese-style and do warm up drills during the Haka? Or maybe not...

2016-10-22T06:07:52+00:00

eagleJack

Roar Guru


At what point has Cooper shown the form that people seem to think he has shown? He has been far from impressive. For 3 years. Cooper has so much potential. We all know that. But you tend to talk about that when referring to a 20 year old. Not a guy who has been on the scene for a decade. Sooner or later he needs to show what we all think he can show. Foley hasn't necessarily been much better. But it's not like Cooper has blown us away and his dropping to the bench is much of a shock? I think his poor game at Eden Park last year might have been a factor too. Never seen a player so rattled.

2016-10-22T06:02:33+00:00

Cliff (Bishkek)

Guest


MP - Kafer is losing it on Expert Commentary - he is as one-eyed as the rest. All the media are scared of upsetting the ARU and Cheika - very few ask the hard questions and really do journalism proud. Questions: Why is Folau still at FB and not on the wing or on the pine or out of the 23? Why is Foley still playing? -- although he may fire today - but Cooper coming on late might do some good Why is Mumm still in the team or even the 23? Why is DHP on the wing and not at FB There are others!!!

2016-10-22T05:59:08+00:00

Train Without A Station

Roar Guru


Nobody said that. Just they were better options than Foley and Robertson. Yet another swing and a miss from Squirrel. Do you ever get anything right?

2016-10-22T05:57:37+00:00

Cliff (Bishkek)

Guest


Chook - on the Papworth / ARU saga, I think there is a little bit of "wrong and right" in both camps. It is a pity that there is no one in charge who has the ability to bring both camps together and bring the Clubs into the full ARU growth expectations as well as fund the grassroots. I agree that Papworth is speaking mainly Shute Shield & Brissie Club Comp. But there is a need for grassroots funding - Juniors and up. However, what I do not understand is the following as to what a friend told me the other day: The Clubs are the QRU and NSWRU --> the QRU & NSWRU own the ARU - so why are the ARU and Clubs not on the same pathway to success in Aus Rugby. Also how can the WRU dictate to the Clubs - should it not be the other way around? Beyond me - but if someone got the Clubs on board and grassroots functioning -- we could have a system whereby the pathways were --- Grassroots --> Schools --> Clubs --> NRC --> SR --> Wallabies. The Clubs - or osme of the bigger Clubs are too powerful and need to be bought into line. Rugby lost in my opinion years ago when both QRU and NAWRU and also the ARU did not move on Western Sydney and Logan in Brisbane - seriously for Rugby development -- they are no in all aspects an NRL stronghold. My concern that Rugby under the ARU and the Clubs - at their level are a broken Corporation!!! I do not know the answer - there has to be someone out there who can fix it. Is there a CEO that can bring it all together somewhere in Australia?

2016-10-22T05:57:07+00:00

Dan in devon

Guest


The attacking structure did not allow Cooper to make the position his own. Too often Foley and Cooper were rotating through the first receiver position. He should have had the opportunity to play with a strong runners outside of him especially as his passing in tight spaces is much better than Foley. Australia were more attacking when playing through Cooper at twickenham even if he was a little deeper and more lateral than I would have liked. Foley looks tired to me and he has not been the same since his stint in Japan.

2016-10-22T05:42:53+00:00

Squirrel

Guest


Yeah Cooper and slipper will save the wallabies aye. Wtf

2016-10-22T04:56:08+00:00

Wardad

Guest


I'm all for the Wallabies giving the Poms a touch up and shall be cheering the roof off should they do so !You know the enemy of any Pommy team being everyones friend and all it seems...

2016-10-22T04:51:57+00:00

Wardad

Guest


I dunno I never count the Wallabies out until the final whistle blows and Kearns and Kafer have steam coming out their ears and are whinging about how they wuz robbed by Maccaws chicanery [ even though hes retired ] and how Ritchie is offside just by being on the wrong side of the stands.

2016-10-22T04:51:49+00:00

Lostintokyo

Guest


Jacko. Many players form is not the same as it was at the RWC. That has been a big problem this year. It would be interesting to see Cooper at 12. But let's hope Hodge and Kerevi can make the centre positions their own. Big test for them in a couple of hours. Cooper's goal kicking TWAS can be hit and miss, hot and cold. Next year at the Reds he will have a hot backline and plenty of opportunity to cement his legacy with goal kicking a key component.

2016-10-22T04:44:09+00:00

jesse

Guest


If mumms only in the side for his lineout abilities then put a second rower at 6! he does fuk all else on the field, so put simmons at 6. so over people saying he is there for his lineout abilites, when he harldy even wins a lineout anyway. 2 catches a game keeps him on the field for 80 minutes.

2016-10-22T04:42:24+00:00

hmmm

Guest


I am really disappointed with the decision to drop cooper and install foley. So far this season including the english tour all I have seen foley do is 1 stand so deep it was impossible to do anything in attack except go backwards 2. have kicks charged down 3. drop balls 4. kick out on the full from restart 5. pass to no one 6. provide terrible clearing kicks ie short and down the throat of counter attacking backs. 7. I am struggling to remember a backline move of any sort run by him. All of the above is what cooper used to get bashed for but foley seems to be like teflon. Foley is not that good a goal kicker to demand selection. Cooper and Hodge can kick. Foley was mediocre at best IMO when moved to 12. All things equal foley is the one who should be sitting on the bench. He doesnt deserve first crack at distributing to the new centre combination that seems to hold some promise. What is more concerning to me is the message thsi sends to players. Cooper has reigned in his errors, has a better general kicking game and has a similar defence ability to foley. Have even seen stats saying foley is worse in defence. His reward for being more stable like everyone demanded is to be dropped to the bench. Not great for motivating people to change and grow but unfortunately this sort of decision seems totally normal in this wallaby set up.

2016-10-22T04:26:28+00:00

Max Power

Guest


Jimmy, I think Kafer's comments are completely inaccurate though. Just reading through the article now: He said we need a 10 who can control the game which Foley has yet to show he can do, at the Tahs he relied on Beale and at the WC he had Giteau. When he had Kerevi outside him against England he seriously struggled and Toomua came back to give him a second ball-player outside him. Kafer said we need someone who makes consistently good decisions at 10 but Foley makes just as many, if not more, errors than Cooper in both attack and defence. He also said we need someone who can move the team around into the right areas but and his passing and kicking skills are both inferior to Cooper and combined with his struggles to control the team he isn't able to move the team around the field. Kafe also said Foley creates opportunities for those outside him but despite our result our backline play at the WC was generally very poor and besides the first 15 minutes of the first test against England it has been just as bad if not worse in every test Foley has started at 10 this year. He said he's had some excellent games for Australia but this season he definitely has not and in some games has been very poor.

2016-10-22T03:53:02+00:00

Jokerman

Guest


All Blacks 52 Austalia 13 Alternatively All Blacks 57 Australia 6

2016-10-22T03:42:29+00:00

Mr Hollywood

Guest


Yes I see Hansen picked this team. Cheika has chosen to go with it at his peril. Some of the best Jedi technics I've seen in a while. Cheika is also relaxed and giggly. Poor bugger he must be listening to the "it's just another ground" stuff. Looks like Cheika could be brain washed. Almost like a punch drunk effect. He's taken too many hits from Hansen and now Cheika's laughing.

2016-10-22T03:28:08+00:00

zubrick

Guest


full chamber...obviously = out and out suicide unless aiming for the feet the song sadly remains the same all blacks by 40 plus

2016-10-22T03:03:53+00:00

PeterK

Roar Guru


Deans also had Horwill, Sharpe, Moore (at his peak), Vickerman, Elsom, Palu (at his peak), G Smith, Pocock, Mortlock, Latham, AAC, Gits, Tuqiri, Ioane. The only area Cheika has superior players to Deans are the props.

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