UPDATE: So Scottish has been scratched, but I’m sticking by my number 2 selection.
Big Orange to actually run and get up!
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An early tip is a good tip, or at least I hope. Here are mine:
1. Scottish
1. Big Orange
2. Hartnell
Original article:
After watching the replay of the Caulfield Cup so many times I know the race-caller’s description off by heart, I’ve got the Melbourne Cup winner for you – Scottish.
A week ahead of time, too. You can thank me later.
Seriously though, Scottish’s run in that race was phenomenal. I’ve seen all the lead-up races to the big one on the first Tuesday in November and that was the best cup trial.
Do yourself a favour if you haven’t had a close look yourself yet and check out a replay. It’s hard to believe Scottish was able to run second when you consider the huge amount of work he had to do in the race.
Scottish was slow out of the barriers and as he tried to make up a little ground down the straight the first time he got squeezed sideways towards the fence, at which point he started throwing his head about.
His jockey, Kerrin McEvoy, decided the best option from there was to let the horse go forward and Scottish went into the turn out of the straight fives horses wide.
He had to be kept going to try to get around the field and at about the 1200-metre mark of the 2400-metre event he finally got to the lead and crossed to the fence.
It was always going to be a big ask for Scottish to go on and win from there. Surely he was going to get worn out and drop back into the ruck at the finish. But, while he didn’t win, only one horse could get past him and that was the favourite, Jameka, who had enjoyed a charmed run by comparison.
If there’s a worry with Scottish it’s the fact he hasn’t raced over 3200m before and if he wanted to go quicker in the Caulfield Cup will he have trouble settling in the Melbourne Cup.
Hopefully, his trainer and jockey can manage to guard against that.
It makes sense that Hartnell is the favourite for the cup and Jameka the second favourite.
Hartnell has been the outstanding horse of the spring apart from the incredible Winx, who, fortunately for the cup hopes, isn’t a 3200-metre horse.
Included in Hartnell’s wins was a decisive one over Jameka in the Turnbull Stakes, after which Jameka went on to win the Caulfield Cup.
Winx blew Hartnell away in just a few strides when they came to grips before the home turn in the WS Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last Saturday, but Hartnell did well to still hang on for second when he could’ve easily faded to finish behind the placegetters.
But neither Hartnell nor Jameka has a strong grip on the cup and while this year’s edition of the race won’t be among the best we’ve seen in terms of the overall quality of the field, there are a number of genuine chances.
Exospheric and Almoonqith each finished very strongly for third and fourth respectively in the Caulfield Cup. Their runs said they would be better suited over the longer distance of the Melbourne Cup and the bigger track at Flemington.
Almandin is owned by Lloyd Williams, who has made an art form of finding potential Melbourne Cup winners to buy. The horse has taken a relatively low-key path towards the big race compared to some of the other runners mentioned here, but has still been very impressive.
And British horse Big Orange is back as a five-year-old for another crack at the cup after running a splendid fifth last year, when he led. Big Orange will be much better off for that experience and he since has the form on the board in the UK.
Other chances: Jameka, Almandin, Almoonqith, Exospheric.
Why wait any longer for a Melbourne Cup tip?
Aransan
Guest
The value is Hartnell, Oceanographer, Bondi Beach on the tote. I am hoping for Curren Mirotic to run a bold race at odds.There are some good horses in the $10 to $20 bracket. Much depends on the way the race is run, it is expected to be a true staying test which might be difficult for Hartnell and Jameka, Curren Mirotic needs a fast even pace.
Andrew Bakani
Guest
Can someone give me some best tips for Melbourne Cup race tomorrow..
kv joef
Roar Guru
Aransun ... Hartnell's going into this race with exceptional form and is exceptionally weighted for that form. The only reason he is not 2/1 or shorter is because of his Sydney Cup performance when he faltered over the last 200m, as coincidence would have it, against last Saturday's MVCup quinella. Hartnell won the Queen's Vase (3200m) at Ascot in a competent performance beating Our Century a recent Caulfield BM84 winner and put in a strong performance in last wednesay's Bendigo Cup. But he then failed badly in Kingston Hill's St.Ledger (average race that year). You look at his pedigree and there is no prob there. If the pace is only a little quicker than last year, he has the weight to put a gap in them ... but only if my tip fails to stay the Flem two-miles ... but he won't. my tip a similar weight to performance advantage if i'm right lol - god, i'm so full of myself. Never been keen of the 'hasn't race here thing' ... most that have come here have performed pretty close to the their mark.
Aransan
Guest
kv, I know Hartnell was beaten 8 lengths by Winx but I think his run was better than it looked and it was a very good Cup trial. The bookies are keeping his odds safe so as to discourage punters but I think he will still be a good price for his chances. Historically I believe the Cup favourites have been good value, especially each way on the tote. A system I have used over many years successfully in big races has been to back horses that ease significantly in the betting. For example, a theory might be that a horse has had to have an Australian lead up race to have a chance, any horse not satisfying that is likely to ease in the betting.
Shane Caldwell
Roar Rookie
Do you think that Secret Number requires a soft track, form looks good but all on soft track, Normally Flemington is a bit hard ?
Hrad
Guest
It looks like you got overs mate! Good Luck!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Oh they do - just an opinion on Hartnell!
Jason James
Roar Rookie
Big orange dont think so had its chnace last year
Brian
Guest
Lloyd Williams is playing games with the odds as he always does Blake Shinn will win this years cup and you can power up $91 game over
John R
Guest
Cannot take you seriously now Greg... Scottish is gone and Big Orange hasn't had a run in Oz this year!!
Hrad
Guest
Thanks for that!
kv joef
Roar Guru
only a week away. i think you might have mentioned a worthy substitute for scottish in your article. thought the best run in the cup outside the winner's dominance was Team William's new horse Sir Issac Newton, got a future that horse but speaking of the Cup, i think Team Williams might very well give the cup the big A ... all the way to the bank.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
I believe it was Tawriffic, 12th in 1998 and won in 1989.
Republican
Guest
The Melbourne Cup by name only. Not an Ozzie bred g g within coooeee........
Dave
Guest
Nope!
Hrad
Guest
Better polish up your crystal ball again, Greg, as Scottish is going to run in the Emirates. On s side note, can anyone please tell me the name of the last horse to win the Melbourne Cup, after being unplaced in the previous years Melbourne Cup?
Novasaint
Guest
My tip ... for what it's worth , Grand Marshal. I got $101 in January , $51 earlier this month before it's strong win in the Mooney valley cup now at $26. Can run and win at this distance and was getting into the MC last year before pole axed by Schofield on Gust of wind. Worth putting in your multiples.
Irish eyes
Guest
There's just one winner. HEARTBREAK CITY. Won the ebor in a canter backed off the map by his canny trainer. Should've got 55kgs but thrown in with 53. Luck in running this simply wins. Stays quickens likes the hustle and bustle. Working super.Take the tip.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
I thought that Godolphin still had Qewy, Beautiful Romance and Secret Number in the race?
Morgan
Guest
Well not all in they will have Qewy, maybe Tally if he runs well in the Lexus and they are trying desperately to get Oceanographer into the race as well hence a late nom for Lexus.