Australia have all but lost the first Test against South Africa. The risk now is they could lose control of the whole Test summer if they capitulate today.
There is so much talk in cricket circles about “mental scars” and “momentum” that these concepts can seem like clichés. But we’ve also seen time and again what appears to be evidence of these phenomena.
Once a negative mindset is established it can be difficult to eradicate. The same goes for a positive one. I would consider this a major component of what we call “form”. When a player is struggling to perform that often isn’t solely the result of a technical deficiency.
A few low scores or wicketless innings can see doubt take root and from there it’s easy to start floundering out in the middle, even if you’re on fire in the nets. Teams as a whole can suffer from this same malaise.
Consider the back-to-back Ashes of 2013. In a matter of months, Australia somehow turned a 0-3 flogging in England into a 5-0 romp at home. In England, the home side looked clearly the better team on paper, man-for-man, so the lopsided scoreline was not unexpected.
The return series however, was a perfect example of what seemed to be “mental scars” and “momentum” at play. All it took was one Test at Brisbane for the tide to turn, prompted by some brutal bowling by Mitchell Johnson which blindsided the Poms.
In the second Test at Adelaide, the vastly-experienced and accomplished England side suddenly looked rattled. The Australians, most of all Johnson, had got inside their heads. By the end of that Test the “mental scars” were deep and Australia’s “momentum” was unstoppable.
One crushing loss can be enough to turn an assured, rampant team into a doubt-riddled rabble. In Australia’s case, there is the risk that their shock smashing at the hands of Sri Lanka in August may have kickstarted such a rot. They entered that series brimming with belief, coming off a wonderful summer in which they went 6-0, including a 4-0 home-and-away hammering of a well-regarded New Zealand team.
All of this self-assurance melted away in the space of the first Test in Sri Lanka, where Australia let slip a dominant position and cascaded to a heavy defeat, just like they’re at risk of doing today. Australia looked broken, mentally, from the second Test onwards.
The debacle in Sri Lanka, combined with being cleanswept 5-0 for the first time last month in South Africa, must have dealt a solid blow to Australia’s collective confidence.
But then they returned home, to the country they’ve made a fortress in the Test format.
Australia have gone an incredible 18 Tests now without a loss at home, owning a phenomenal 14-0 win-loss record since South Africa last toured here four years ago.
Whatever the depths they’ve sunk to overseas in that period they’ve immediately transformed into a commanding unit upon setting foot back in Australia. This summer, however, represents their toughest home Test season for many years.
South Africa have won their past two Test series in Australia. Pakistan, meanwhile, are arguably the world’s top Test team, fresh from drawing 2-2 with England on the road, a result which underscored their ability to prosper outside Asia.
A supreme start to this summer would have helped cauterise the “mental scars” inflicted by the recent cleansweeps. That, in turn, would have made them fiercely intimidating foes for even quality sides like South Africa and Pakistan.
Australia with their tails up on home soil are a marauding mob. The flipside is that a demoralising defeat in the first Test of the summer could infect those “mental scars” earned in SA and Sri Lanka. The public pressure on the team as a whole would then be enormous. The interior pressure on each Australian player would be just as immense, with a host of them suddenly playing for their spots.
This is not a healthy condition for any team to be in, let alone one at the start of an extremely challenging summer. If Australia are reduced to such a vulnerable, paranoid state it is hard to see how they will produce anything close to their best cricket over the next six weeks.
And middling efforts will not be enough for Australia, not this summer. It may sound melodramatic, but the course of the Australian season may well be set today.
I cannot see how they can avoid defeat. But should they finish off the South African innings this morning and then bat with purpose they still can take something out of this Test and avoid handing the visitors a daunting degree of momentum.
They simply must make the South Africans labour for their victory. Capitulate and that failure may reverberate across the whole summer.
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
Smith maybe, just maybe, but Warner is junk, medium or spin. There is nothing to maintain with him.
Joe
Guest
I never thought I would agree with you Ronan but your analysis regarding Pakistan is absolutely correct.
Rats
Guest
Why are the Australian selectors stubborn about Maxwell, Bailey and even Finch. Why is Maxwell/Bailey not considered for no.5/6. Irrespective of type of pitch modern day Test cricket have become low scoring. A quick 75 or 90 from a no.5/no.6 can easily turn things around. Especially after Aus have tried many players for that position. A Maxwell quick 50 or a Bailey 80, would have got Aus a 100-120 run lead. May be even more when the tail feels confidence and chips in. Maxwell would have smacked Duminy/Maharaj out of the park. Yes, it a risk to pick him in Tests. but its a risk worth taking when you are out of options..
13th man
Guest
Yes the middle order is a massive issue... spots 5,6 and 7 are a huge problem. I am happy to back either Marsh (of the S variety) or Burns in as opener alongside Warner and back in Khawaja at 3 but to do this we need a solid middle order. I am a massive Voges fan but the bloke is 38 and has lost form, at his age you can't lose form and with a young fella like Kurtis Patterson in form then I think he probably has to go. I rate Maxwell and feel that at 6 he is a good choice, especially in India..... I really do reckon that his bowling is an added bonus and he fits in at 6. The Wicketkeeper position is an interesting one, Wade is clearly the best batsmen out of the state keepers but the worst with the gloves, Handscomb is a gun batsman but doesn't keep for his state, same as Bancroft... there is no obvious candidate as Nevill is batting well...... a good keeper batsman is good as we saw with Gilly for us and now the likes of Bairstow, De Kock and Watling..... Nevill is not in there class with the bat and there is no way we can persist with Marsh and Nevill at 6 and 7. And for the first time in ages, our tail is weak..... Rod Marsh's point to choose Mennie isn't necessarily the worst and on the same token SOK is a better batsman than Lyon Of our current tail only Starc is handy with the willow..... how many times did Johnson and Harris bail us out? (geez I miss them!) The best Australian team going around right now is probably Warner (c) Burns Khawaja Smith Patterson Maxwell/Cartwright Handscomb SOK Starc Siddle Hazelwood
danno
Guest
Have to stop this obsession with having an all rounder. Aust used to always pick the top 6 batsman in the country and often the number 6 would average in the 40s. 4 bowlers was all that was needed before.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agreed but I'd still take him to India. Take him as the extra batsman at least, even if not the starting side. At the very least he would spend hours in the nets over there. Couldn't be a bad thing. And I'm sure someone will do terribly and beg to be dropped - might be good to make Khawaja earn his place over there and drop him into the 3rd or 4th test. I should add at this stage I think we'll lose 4-0 regardless so I don't really think it matters either way.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Played them well today Ronan.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
The problem with guaranteeing his spot long term Paul is that Khawaja is one of the worst players of spin in world cricket. He was eaten alive by Swann earlier in his career and looked absolutely terrified and flummoxed against spin in Sri Lanka. If Khawaja plays the four Tests in India in four months time he'll be lucky to average 20 for the series. I would have Khawaja in my starting XI everywhere but in Asia.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Am watching Khawaja batting now and am starting to think that he needs to be given the same treatment as David Warner got a few years ago, and essentially told the spot is yours long-term, we will back through form slumps because we think you're the best talent. Khawaja is 29, almost 30. I think we have to stick with him for the next few years, he is a very talented bat, has great temperament and I cannot see anyone else around in state cricket who is better than him. Look at how good he was in the big bash last summer too. And overseas at the 20/20 world cup, he was one of the few who batted well. He's very much in the mould of Hashim Amla, and I reckon if we back him in we will get some excellent years out of him, the same way South Africa got a great few years out of Hashim just recently, a mature strokeplaying batsman in the prime of his career and mental faculties.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agreed, I don't give Australia a hope in hell of batting for a draw. It has to be a mental thing - we have seen all these guys bat for a long time and pile up some huge individual innings, but they can't seem to find a way to stick around when they're not scoring quickly, or on top. My guess from the outside is that it's some sort of underlying ego thing, they can't handle the bowlers having the upper hand. Mentally they feel like they have to keep attacking and can't be content defending.
Anindya Dutta
Roar Guru
If Smith doesn't stick around and play a captain's innings he will have no one but himself and the selectors to blame for the worst summer of Cricket Australia could be looking at in decades.
Tanmoy kar
Guest
Ronan you are very much right, Australia should try to prolong this match as much as possible, if possible take the match beyond Tea tomorrow, otherwise they may get demoralized and may loose both the Series this Summer.
Basil
Guest
Lyon has taken a lot of wickets for Australia but he is out of form. When was the last Test where he bowled well? I can't help but think if he gets dropped to the Shield he'll never demand selection on performance just as he didn't from the start. He was on the conveyer belt line of spinners that were being tried while the selectors were doing everything possible to avoid OKeefe who has the best record for Aussie spinners in FC cricket by a country mile.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
To be fair Ronan, Lyon would have bowled a lot more overs if Marsh wasn't in the team. Before the start of play today he'd only bowled 20 overs in the second innings apparently due to the ball reverse swinging. Anyway of those 28 overs Marsh bowled Lyon would have bowled at least 15 of them and the other three quicks may have bowled an extra 5 overs each at most. And whether Marsh or Lyon bowled them would have made very little if any difference to the momentum and outcome of the game.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Right, Maxwell bowled a whole two overs in the current Shield game. He has said he wants to limit his bowling to work on his batting. We don't have allrounders. Whether it is because of the way players come through grade or not, who knows. The system in England seems to help allrounders. Look at those who have come through their ranks: Greig, Botham, Flintoff and now Stokes. We need to work on what has worked in the past which is 6-1-4.
Peter
Roar Rookie
You only have to look at Kraigg Brathwaite's performance in the recent Test match to know that there are young cricketer's who know how to, and want to, play Test cricket. Tests will be around in 50 years times and people will still be bemoaning it's death.
BrainsTrust
Guest
Keith Miller was a top line fast bowler, he would have been in any team in history, the batting was a bonus but wouldn't have guaranteed test selection but certainly first class he would have been selected as both. Leith Mi8ller was also good everywhere in the field. Kallis was certainly always selected as a batsman if he had bothered to get fit and shed some weight he could have been a good test bowler. Kallis was a quality part timer he wouldn't have been selected at first class level let alone test level because he was never fit enough to bowl enough overs to justify selection as a specialist bowler. Same with Kallis fielding brilliant slip and but slow and unfit elsewhere. Mitchell Marsh is good enough at neither for first class level, he seems to be being selected because there is always a question mark over the fitness of fast bowlers and there is a lack of batting all rounders.
Andy
Guest
Give lyon a little credit. He had at least 1 wicket dropped by Starc which in my opinion looked like he had his mind on his open wound on his leg and not the ball.
Brian
Guest
What's Lyon's record like over the past year or so? I see people whinging about Smith not bowling him, but his 0/76 return, a sight we're used to seeing when we need him most, vindicated Steve keeping him off.
Abigail
Guest
The team balance is all wrong. Australia could comfortably play an all rounder when they had keepers like Gilchrist and Haddin that could bat, but the combination of Neville and Marsh in the middle order just doesn't work. On form, neither should be batting above eight. The dilemma is that the only keeper with genuine claims as a batsman is Wade and his keeping is not even close to the standard of Neville. So if the selectors are determined to persist with Mitchell Marsh, despite his poor batting, then Neville is vulnerable. If the selectors opt to play the best keeper in the country, then Mitchell Marsh has to be replaced by a batsman who can bowl.