Finally it’s here, the AFL’s (far superior, if you ask me) equivalent to Christmas – draft day. Whether you’re an avid watcher of junior footy or a casual fan just looking to get up to speed, my last minute guide to the draft is the perfect read for you this draft day morn.
Straight to the point – the AFL Draft will be held tonight, Friday 25 November, at the Hordern Pavillion in Sydney.
The draft will start at 7pm (AEDT), with the first pick expected to be read out around 7:10pm.
The draft will be broadcast on Fox Footy, with their coverage starting from 6:30pm (AEDT). For all the details on how to watch, click here.
Once things get happening, clubs take their turn to pick from the pool of players eligible to join the league. Players must turn 18 before New Year’s Day 2017 in order to be eligible for the draft.
Clubs pick according to the draft order. To view the complete draft order for the 2016 AFL draft, click here.
The draft order however will be interrupted during the draft by father-son and academy bidding. For all the details on how this works, click here.
Who is the best key defender?
This year’s top tall defender prospect is Griffin Logue, a Western Australian with excellent athleticism for his size and a hairdo that will make him an instant cult hero.
He maybe doesn’t have as deep a resume at under-18 level as some others have developed, but he finished the year in excellent form and his athletic abilities suggest he’s got enormous scope to improve.
Who is the best key forward?
A matter of some debate this time around, largely due to the fact that there’s a lack of any standout top-shelf tall forwards in the mix. It’s entirely possible that there won’t be one selected in the first round – definitely not in the top ten.
Todd Marshall has probably been the one talked about the most during the year, but his form just hasn’t been consistent enough to justify much hype, and he’ll clearly need to spend some time developing probably at state level before he becomes a true AFL-grade player.
Who is the best inside midfielder?
If we’re looking purely for a clearance specialist and contested ball-winning machine, we need look no further than Will Brodie who would be close to No.1 in both categories among this year’s draft crop.
Brodie was talked about as a potential No.1 pick during the year, but a slow finish to the season and some questions over his kicking may see him slide outside the top ten.
Who is the best outside midfielder?
Likely top three pick Hugh McCluggage is our man here. He’s a bit lightly built at the moment and not necesarilly a ball winner, but his elite kicking and goal sense will make him a gun as a wingman who can push forward.
In the conversation after McCluggage would likely be Oliver Florent, who should land somewhere inside the 11-20 range.
Who is the best ruckman?
It’s been a while since we last saw a ruckman selected inside the top ten at a draft, but this year might bring that drought to an end.
Western Australian Tim English is an exciting prospect – he’s less a ruckman and more an overgrown midfielder. He will need to work on his ruckwork and build up his body, but he has a Dean Cox-like ability to find the ball around the ground.
Who is the best kick?
‘A few more good kicks’ is a phrase you’ll find in every team’s draft wishlist, and this year’s top end luckily has more than a few.
Probably the best of them, and it’s a tight field, is Western Australian Sam Petrevski-Seton. It’s not just that his ball use is elite, but it’s great off either foot.
Who has the most pace?
Nothing’s more exciting on the footy field than a bit of line-breaking pace, and this draft has a few speed machines.
Arguably the name at the top of the list is Ben Ainsworth. At the draft combine he tested second for the 20m sprint, fifth for the repeat 20m sprints, and eighth for agility.
Who is the tallest?
Tim English, mentioned above, is one of the biggest boys in the draft pool at 203cm, and could well be the tallest player to get picked up.
Dary Cameron, at 204cm, is a 21-year-old mature ager who has played some impressive footy in the WAFL and could be a chance as well.
Who is the smallest?
There’s a few shorter blokes in this draft. Two who could get picked up are Shai Bolton and Ben Jarman, both at 175cm.
Bolton’s a runnning half-forward from Western Australia who shows some real spark and excitement – but could stand to do so a little more consistently – while Jarman is a small-forward who is in the open draft after both Hawthorn and Adelaide passed him over as a potiential father-son pick.
Who has the best name?
There’s so many beautiful name in this year’s pool, I just can’t pick. Here’s a few of my favourites:
Hugh McCluggage, Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Josh Battle, Sam Powell-Pepper, Kobe Mutch, Oscar Junker, Lachlan Tiziani, Quinton Narkle, Robbie Fox.
I know it’s a bit cliche to say, but this has been one of the hardest drafts to predict for many years. There’s been genuine speculation over the No.1 pick for a much longer period than usual, and the order of the draft combined with the potential for academy bidding has made it difficult to read.
Some things have started to solidify over the past 24 hours however and I can now tip with what is really only a miniscule amount of confidence that the first nine picks of the draft will go as follows:
1 – Essendon Bombers – Andrew McGrath
2 – GWS Giants – Tim Taranto
3 – Brisbane Lions – Hugh McCluggage
4 – Gold Coast Suns – Ben Ainsworth
5 – GWS Giants – Will Setterfield (matching bid from Carlton)
6 – Carlton Blues – Sam Petrevski-Seton
7 – Gold Coast Suns – Griffin Logue
8 – Fremantle Dockers – Jy Simpkin
9 – Gold Coast Suns – Jack Scrimshaw
McCluggage was seen as the likely No.1 pick for much of the year but it’s believed that Essendon have decided to go with running defender McGrath at the No.1 selection.
That threw a spanner in the works for GWS, who traded up to pick No.2 targetting McGrath. They don’t appear to be interested in McCluggage and will go for a taller, bigger-bodied midfielder in Taranto.
That means the Lions – who traded down from pick No.2 during the trade period – will get a spectacular bargain, securing the man many rate as the best in the pool at the third pick overall.
Ben Ainsworth, largely linked to the Lions over the past few weeks, will then drop down to Gold Coast’s first selection at pick No.4. The Lions won’t jeopardise their chance to land McCluggage by placing a bid on Gold Coast academy player Jack Bowes.
Carlton are instead expected to be the first bidders of the night, going after 190cm midfielder Will Setterfield, but there’s no doubt the Giants will match.
The Blues are then tipped to pick up the silky, speedy Petrevski-Seton with their selection.
Gold Coast have a number of players in the mix at pick No.7 (No.6 before bidding), but it’s believed they will go with Griffin Logue out of concern that Fremantle will take him with the next selection if they don’t snap him up there.
Things get a little bit harder to predict from there on out – Fremantle have been linked to the likes of Will Brodie, Jy Simpkin and Jack Scrimshaw at their pick, but Simpkin appears to be leading the pack.
Expect the Suns to pick up Scrimshaw afterwards if that’s the case, and then they will likely round out the top ten matching a bid that the Sydney Swans are probable to make on Bowes.
However, what could really throw the draft into chaos is a potential early bid for GWS academy player Isaac Cumming.
He was considered likely to be bid on in the 20s up until recently, but it now appears that clubs in the teens and maybe even the top ten are interested. He has been invited to the draft which is usually and indication that a player is a top ten chance.
Sydney are believed to be the club inside the top ten who could make a bid, and if they don’t, then both Adelaide and Port Adelaide are in the mix to do so in the teens.
That would put GWS in a difficult position, as the cost of matching bids for Setterfield, Cumming, and another academy prospect Harry Perryman all in the first round would risk driving them into deficit.
Given that they could potentially lose 2017 draft picks as part of the AFL’s charge against them related to Lachie Whitfield, that would be a really bad position to be in.
Oh and one last little tidbit… Richmond may only be arriving at the draft at pick No.27 (before bidding), but they appear to already have some names in mind.
AFL clubs love to accidentally release videos early. If the names listed there are any indication, the Tigers are looking for an inside midfielder with their first pick – the five players featured above all fit into that category.
Of course, rumours should never be taken as a certainty and when things being in earnest anything can happen. We’ll find it all out tonight!
Be sure to join me tonight here on The Roar for our live blog of the draft, and then again tomorrow morning for all of our post-draft analysis.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Tim English has grown 2cm since Friday. Listed in all the news outlet as being 203cm, he is now listed on the Bulldog's website as being 205cm. At this rate he'll be taller than Mason Cox and Aaron Sandilands before Xmas.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Bingo. Besides, we've still got Sandilands for a few more years. More than happy to pass on English and get him in a few years time.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Could not agree more re: Tim English, Fremantle need to play the long game and look to bring him home in a few years time. Let another club develop him. Great rationale too on why Ainsworth should be our pick 3.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Enjoy MDS - Here is hoping that the QLD Clubs bring 10 talented kids up here to push these two clubs up the ladder at the same time (would definitely help spice up the QCLash!)
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Entertaining reading on here today – particularly Macca who is hoping and praying that McCluggage or Taranto come through to the Blues at Pick 5! Most of the “experts” seem to now agree on a Top 6 that looks like this: 1. Andrew McGrath 2. Tim Taranto 3. Hugh McCluggage 4. Ben Ainsworth 5. Will Setterfield 6. Sam Petrevski-Seton I think we will all be surprised by the Lions because (1) they will pick Ben Ainsworth at Pick 3 regardless of who goes 1 and 2 and (2) they won’t bid on Bowes with that Pick either. It is rare currently a player actively wants to go to the Lions and has mates already embedded into the Club he is wanting to play footy with. Loyalty is as close to dead as you can get in the AFL but it would send a good message to Ainsworth – You want us and we want you at the Gabba. This would see the Suns definitely take McCluggage at Pick 4 and the real early games then kick off with the Blues Pick 5. The common school of thought is that they will bid on Will Setterfield and GWS will match. I wonder if they would then bid on Jack Bowes (which Suns will match) and Harry Perryman and Isaac Cumming consecutively (both of whom the Giants want but will not be able to draft at this end of the draft)? Are the Blues into either of those players? It would literally send GWS out of the draft. It seems that every scribe had the Blues taking Brodie a month ago and now everyone has Petrevski-Seton going to the Blues with Pick 6. I know a mate of mine in Melbourne who is a big Blues supporter is not happy with this turn of events. What should be an entertaining start will fizzle very quickly after the first 20-25 names are called out. If the Suns walk away with Bowes, McCluggage, Logue, Scrimshaw and Scheer they will have considered the night a raging success. They need midfield depth and defensive cover to help out May and Thompson and those kids bring this to the Club. I know some people think that they should take Tim English but you just cannot burn Top 10 picks on Ruckmen that will take 5-6 years to develop in the AFL. I back the Paul Roos stance on this that a Club should simply try and trade for ready-made ruckmen or take them very late in the draft. Considering that they have Nicholls, Witts and Currie on the list with Wright pinch-hitting occasionally then I can’t see why you need English as well, particularly when there is so much midfield depth available. The Lions picking up Ainsworth and then any combination of the following Alex Witherden / Daniel Venables / Alex Graham / Jordan Ridley / Sam Powell-Pepper would also be a good night out after a solid draft in 2015.
Macca
Guest
For those who were bemused by Collingwoods trading this year I give you this from their recruiter Matt Rendell; "It is a deep draft. I've thought so from day one," Rendell said on AFL.com.au's NAB AFL Draft Countdown show. "The best 20 is probably best 20 I've ever seen. I think they'll all play a lot of footy, the top 20. "Some clubs are going to get some good players at No. 40" Collingwoods draft picks this year - 28, 44, 51, 61 & 64
Macca
Guest
"you don’t understand the queensland market" Small and uninterested - am I warm?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Whatever Macca, you don’t understand the queensland market so I’ll leave it there. Enjoy the draft.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agreed, I'm just waiting till it actually happens.
Katfish
Roar Guru
It definitely needs some work, but there is a very talented spine there. They should be able to add some great midfield talent with this draft too. I agree that risks are the way to go. Selwood, Fyfe, Dangerfield and Bont all had a question marks over them but have now become inspired picks. It might take a pick and player like that to really rip the Lions out of their situation
Macca
Guest
How many BBL supporters do and watch the state Sheffield shield side? The BBL theory works because they support a BBL side and then go and support their country - they aren't going to have their "awareness raised" by one team and support another in the same comp. And we aren't talking about established supporters we are talking about the next generation supporters. In Victoria we also don't have every game of our team on free to air like you do up there - it is a lot easier to live in Brisbane and watch the Suns than it is to live in Melbourne and Watch Geelong. Also this year the blues averaged 35k to our home games, the lions averaged 17k, in 2015 the blues averaged 38k to our home games the lions averaged 19k. In 2003 when the lions were winning their 3rd straight premiership the averaged 31k while the 4 win blues (with a percentage of just 69.94%) averaged 27k - the Lions fans don't stick like Blues fans, you have to be more careful.
Katfish
Roar Guru
I'm not saying declare the premiership, but theres certainly things to be more optimistic about. Your list is young and talented. you have a new coach who was good enough to be a major part of the Hawks set up that won 4 flags and a new football boss in Noble who has shown that he makes great decisions that are the best for the club. All it will take is one year of confidence and belief that a new coach can bring to completely turn things around.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I feel the Suns being successful is good for the Lions for the same reason I keep saying BBL is good for cricket in general – any interest is good interest. Particularly in a state where AFL is about as irrelevant as you can get in the wider market. The Suns being successful would raise awareness and remind the good people of Brisbane that we actually have an AFL side. You need a geography lesson if you think the people of Brisbane are heading all the way down to Metricon to watch the Suns too. How many Carlton fans took off down to Geelong to support them when you guys were terrible?
Macca
Guest
The Suns do have a right to match any bid - but the Lions have the right to BID, at least make them earn it. Why give them Bowes and McCluggage? (2 of Chris Pelchens top 3 of the draft) And I don't thik Qld is an economic backwater just an AFL one - the sponsorship dollars aren't just split between to AFL clubs and if I was a sponsor I would be putting my money with the successful club. And I don't quite follow why you think the Suns will be good for the Lions - the Lions aren't going to get any bigger crowds so you may as well let the Suns take them all and you'll get them back when the rail line is built? I know Qld AFL supporters are fickle but I don't really see changing back from a successful Suns side because the Gabba has better public transport. TomC - I accept they won't but the logic of the reasoning doesn't make any sense, especially if you take Ainsworth.
TomC
Roar Guru
The list is not that talented I'm afraid. Unfortunately I share a lot of Paul's pessimism, but I probably don't agree on what the path forward is. We have to take prudent risks, and that includes sometimes drafting players that might be a slightly greater chance of leaving than slightly less good players.
TomC
Roar Guru
Macca, the Lions won't bid for Bowes. Truly ruly, it is not happening.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Bowes. Suns academy pick. They have right to match any bid. He's. Going. To. The. Suns. I don't know how much of an economic backwater you think Queensland is, I know Curtis Pitt is doing his best to keep it that way but there's enough sponsorship dollars for two sides. On the contrary, I think the Suns doing well would be great for the Lions. We're pretty much in a holding pattern and won't see significant improvements in crowds till crossrail is built under the Gabba to improve stadium access and/or the team starts winning again - on the strength of proceedings I think we're more likely to see trains running under the Gabba before the Lions are back in the top 4.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Until they start winning they're still a losing team. So forgive me if I hold off on the champagne for a while longer yet. Have heard all of what you have said before many times and not seen it eventuate. Your rosy picture is predicated on the belief that all those players remain fit, no injuries, that they continue to develop, that F a g a n can actually coach despite not having held down the senior role for over a decade - there's a lot of what ifs and hence why I will continue to plump for the known quality of Ainsworth and also retain my healthy dosage of cynicism. But if we draft McLuggage I won't be disappointed, just concerned. Can't have another high end draft pick walk out after 2 years.
Macca
Guest
"but right now the biggest threat for us is player retention." Again a perfect reason to recruit the kid from queensland. "Ainsworth is for reasons Dingo has mentioned. Pace is in short supply at the Lions." As you say “I’m perfectly ok with the club settling for a slightly less capable talent if it means he’s a better chance of staying for the long haul.” and I am pretty sure players described like this are in short supply at the Lions as well "He is one of those "time and space" players people talk about about; if he doesn't seem to have enough of one, the other or both he seems able to create as much as he needs. He keeps calm, moves with the play, releases the ball at the right moments and with class" I know I am a long way from the action but I would be pretty confident that a team just 80km away would be competing for the same sponsorship dollars and fan base as you and the more successful they are the worse it is for you. I am not suggesting you will disappear altogether (the AFL won't let that happen) but it will certainly make your existence more of a struggle.
steve
Guest
Cmon Paul, get your Lions to help a brother out will you? Hahahaha