For the first time in decades, Cronulla fans greet the new season from a darkened porch. But before dreams of a repeat grow fins, let’s analyse the maiden title among a nail-biting trend in the NRL.
Of all the nutty annual predictions, “this’ll be the closest season ever,” is the one lathered in fact.
In 2016, 37 of the 201 matches were decided by two points or less, a staggering 18 per cent, the equivalent of almost one in every five games.
Twenty years ago it was only 14 per cent. The ratio climbed to 15 per cent in 2006 then reached 16 with Johnathan Thurston’s final play of 2015.
The gap between top and bottom has narrowed to the point where just a few muffed kicks can derail a season. It’s a worrying trend for coaches, and not surprisingly, the past four premiership winners have all sheltered behind elite marksman.
With heart-stoppers on the up, there’s simply no excuse to skimp from the tee.
Cronulla’s breakthrough season illustrates the point like a butchered golf cliché, ‘spine for show, kick for dough’.
Lost amid broken droughts, Churchill snubs and fullback foibles is the fact Cronulla didn’t drop a match by two points or less – the first premiership-winning side in 11 years to do so.
It’s hardly worth handstands at Northies, but it is super impressive when you consider 26 per cent (or seven games) of Cronulla’s 27 matches were decided by a conversion or less.
Had just three of those cliffhangers gone the other way, Cronulla’s story could well have finished the way of the previous 49.
But in James Maloney, Shane Flanagan found the final chapter’s missing scribe.
The buy of the season’s 78 per cent from the field replicated his three seasons at the Roosters, including the 2013 premiership.
Success rates of 65-70 per cent were once bread and butter for top-flight kickers but in the early 1990s the bar rose with the arrival of Matthew Ridge and Daryl Halligan from New Zealand rugby union.
For a decade they set the pinnacle above an unprecedented 80 per cent.
Today, the top kickers still strike in the eighties but the proportion above 80 per cent is on the rise.
In 2016, 23 players had 30 or more shots landing a combined 1,181 goals at 77 per cent.
Seven struck at better than 80 per cent. Back in 2006, only three kickers exceeded 80 per cent; by the finish of 2011 there were five.
The stats don’t lie; where 77 per cent was once considered elite, it’s now the benchmark and teams short of the mark will squander competition points.
So as the 2017 season approaches, what can be gained from last season’s kicking stats?
| Player | Team | Goals | Attempts | Success Rate |
| Johnathan Thurston | North Queensland | 96 | 114 | 84% |
| Trent Hodkinson | Newcastle | 47 | 56 | 84% |
| Jackson Hastings | Roosters | 26 | 31 | 84% |
| Issac Luke | Warriors | 28 | 34 | 82% |
| Tyrone Roberts | Gold Coast | 54 | 66 | 82% |
| Jarrod Croker | Canberra | 112 | 138 | 81% |
| Nathan Cleary | Penrith | 53 | 66 | 80% |
| Jordan Kahu | Brisbane | 42 | 53 | 79% |
| Michael Gordon | Parramatta | 71 | 91 | 78% |
| James Maloney | Cronulla | 94 | 121 | 78% |
| Siosiua Taukeiaho | Roosters | 27 | 35 | 77% |
| Jamie Soward | Penrith | 37 | 48 | 77% |
| Jamie Lyon | Manly | 50 | 65 | 77% |
| Ashley Taylor | Gold Coast | 26 | 34 | 76% |
| Adam Reynolds | Souths | 43 | 57 | 75% |
| Cameron Smith | Melbourne | 92 | 122 | 75% |
| Kerrod Holland | Canterbury | 39 | 52 | 75% |
| Shaun Johnson | Warriors | 42 | 57 | 74% |
| Moses Mbye | Canterbury | 32 | 45 | 71% |
| Garoth Widdop | St George-Illawarra | 54 | 77 | 70% |
| Jordan Rankin | Wests Tigers | 28 | 40 | 70% |
| Corey Parker | Brisbane | 45 | 69 | 65% |
| Mitchell Moses | Wests Tigers | 43 | 70 | 61% |
First up, if Thurston, Maloney and Jarrod Croker maintain fitness their respective sides are September shoe-ins.
Secondly, Cameron Smith is a below-average kicker but last year’s minor premiers will once again look to compensate through stingy defence.
Brisbane, Penrith and the Gold Coast field regular kickers who strike around 80 per cent and of last season’s lower-eight are well placed to kick on.
The Panthers were the 2016 cardiac kings with eight matches decided by two points or less (31 per cent: five wins, three losses). Breathing should ease with the addition of experience and another 80 per cent season from Nathan Cleary.
Canterbury’s stuttering attack is a forum favourite but they also rank poorly with the boot. In Moses Mbye (71 per cent) and Kerrod Holland (75 per cent) tries adjacent to the posts are a must.
With the departure of Michael Gordon (78 per cent), Parramatta do not have a recognised goal-kicker but finding a replacement won’t worry Trent Robinson who’ll be hopeful the former Eel commands a regular place in his Bondi backline.
Shaun Johnson (74 per cent) sits seven points shy of Stacey Jones’ Warriors point-scoring record but in Issac Luke (82 per cent) new coach Stephen Kearney may change tack.
Michael Maguire will stay with Adam Reynolds but would rather his kicking boots of old. At 75 per cent last year, the halfback was eight per cent down on his career average.
Of last year’s also-rans Manly, St George-Illawarra and the Wests Tigers look least prepared to regularly bother the touchies.
Jamie Lyon’s retirement leaves the Sea Eagles in a massive hole. Jackson Hastings’ boot (84 per cent) won him a late contract but where he ranks among Trent Barrett’s trio of five-eighth recruits is anyone’s guess.
The step-up in class from the NYC to the NRL doesn’t exclude goal kickers. Last season only one NYC kicker topped 80 per cent while five in the top ten struck below 70.
Unfortunately, the Dragons and Wests Tigers’ kickers are yet to complete the transition.
In Mitchell Moses (61 per cent), Jordan Rankin (70 per cent) and Gareth Widdop (70 per cent), both clubs will again be burdened by last season’s lowest-ranked kickers.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Agree. General play first, sides can't afford to hide a sub-standard player who kicks straight. My point was to illustrate the high proportion of close games and the importance of conversions to sway the odds. It was a factor in NQs turnaround in 2015 too. Thurston landed crucial goals early in the season to kick start their move up the table - matches they would otherwise have dropped. I like your close winning percentage idea - be worth looking at by team and coach over 5-10 years. I appreciate your feedback Mushi, cheers
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
They're the numbers. Perhaps El Masri should open the first 6-sigma kicking school.
Mushi
Guest
On the overall percentages it didn't look like a huge gap between elites and also runs when a few kicks here or there affect the rankings. The average difficulty then becomes important, I appreciate that data would be painful to get, as I'd think there is a chicken and egg issue here. A good team gets more penalty shots from sustaining pressure and more tries in tight. Also bad teams tend to have to defend more which means more fatigue for the kicker. All in all I'm just can't see how these number suggest exchanging general play effectiveness for a Kicker. I haven't done the exercise for a while but how many teams sustained their close game winning percentage year on year? In the last decade? It used to be incredibly variable
Mushi
Guest
It's still rough to laud Maloney / criticise Smith when they are less than a standard deviation apart
JVGO
Guest
Maloney hit the post though about twenty times during the season. It was ridiculous how often he was hitting them.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Got it, on the pace now, makes perfect sense. We all need a Mrs Max to keep us on the fairway. Cheers mate - I'll report back from the 19th.
kk
Roar Pro
Sorry Jason. It was a tip I picked up from a an old Golf book many decades ago. The idea is to hit up against a firm left side. Hence if you have your left hip and thigh cushioned against the post and then hit into the pouffe you may get the feel of power at the point of contact encouraging you to hit through the ball rather than steer it, which contributes to a slice. The correct grip is also essential. Mrs Max has advised me that though my failings be few I have a tendency to talk in shorthand and it to be understood. Sorry Jason.
At work
Roar Rookie
And considering the Dragons only average 2 tries per game, we really can't afford to be missing the conversions! Sack Mary
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Calling MAX, come in MAX! Mate, call me Off the Pace Jase but I don't understand the pouffe, timber post setup??
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Not enough time to mention them all, but Gray was unique in many respects. From all reports he pioneered the around-the-corner style in Aussie league. Yeah, the cricket stat also a favourite of mine. I think he played County cricket for Warwickshire as a pretty handy seam bowler. Dual rugby international too. I wonder if our UK correspondent, Tripehound, has additional offerings.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Cheers mate - good luck for 2017! Yours are definitely the best shoes to be in...
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
I'm surprised you haven't mentioned John Gray, especially after his stint with The Sea Eagles. I was mesmerised by his round the corner kicking style when I was a young fella - nobody had seen the likes of it - and he was bang on target, adding reliability for the extras. Apparently he was a gun cricketer to boot.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Sure, they let go of David Mead and Nene MacDonald, but last year they picked up Hurrell and Hayne late in the season. They've just lured Dan Sargenson (a gun test player from the English team), and John Olive from the Bunnies. I can only see strength in their backline with William Zillman also returning from injury, with Nathan Davis able to play fullback, centre, or wing. Anthony Don is no slouch either.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Hey TB, Every year the first thing I basically say is write off the premiers "its just too hard to go back to back".... now that its my team, my heart obviously thinks differently but my head still says its simply going to be too hard. The Sharks go from being the hunter to the hunted... every team will be up 10% against them which makes it incredibly tough and desire levels only have to drop by 1% in September compared to this year for the result to be different in 2017. They were the best team in the comp in 2016 though, and I actually feel a change in the line-up provides a fresh approach and certainly a new challenge for individuals such as Valentine who I think will relish the situation. The biggest loss is obviously Ennis - I hope Flanno throws Jaydn Brailey into the 9 jersey - I mean what better way to ease into first grade than coming into the side that are the reigning premiers... he'll have the experience of Gallen, Lewis, etc to lean on this season as well. They still have the best pack in the comp and overall I still see them as a top 4 side.... but I think a week 2 or 3 exit is the likely scenario. But if the owner of the number 9 jersey succeeds because I think Valentine certainly will - the Sharks will give their title defence a real shake.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Unless I'm mistaken, I'm sure Keith is still with us.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
No point Hodkinson blazing away for ones when they're well behind. He was razor sharp for the Dogs, I'd like to compare his conversion rate with the others.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Actually Cronk kicked 3 and Cam Smith 2. Hodgkinson kicked only 1
Glenn
Guest
Yes Dean, on paper, the Titans have a good, no very good squad, but I disagree with your depth statement. They have let at least 4 experienced players go, all backs I think, and are skinny for replacements when injuries hit. Or maybe they can be like the Sharkies and have very few injuries this year. And on your ladder positions Dean I think you must have had tongue in cheek when complying it.
souvalis
Guest
An image of Keith golden boots Barnes in golden boots..funny,but would have him rolling in his grave..
Tripehound
Guest
Yes Jas, Conlon had a season with our mob in the mid 80's, he had an excellent radar, that jig was something else though. I'll bet Mick Cronin definitely wore those boots, solid square toe, padded sides over the ankle, take the studs out and you were ready for a shift down the pit! They only came in black as well, no day-glo turquoise or luminous lime green for the toe poke of yore.