2017 AFL ladder predictions: The mediocre group

In December’s article, I wrote about Brisbane, Gold Coast and Carlton being the bottom three for this year’s ladder. Today, positions 15th through to 13th are up for grabs – which will be three Victorian teams.

Without further ado, here are the teams I predict will be mediocre – not atrocious, but not fantastic – this year.

15. North Melbourne Kangaroos

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
This is going to be a controversial selection, but a team collapsing from the top eight down to the bottom quarter of the ladder certainly isn’t without precedence – look at Fremantle’s pathetic 2016 season.

North Melbourne’s 2016 was a season of two halves: an impressive nine-win start, before a lame second half which resulted in bowing out at the hands of Adelaide in their final. North also delisted four veterans in a decision that divided fans and critics alike.

2017, though, is going to be a rough year. While I cannot foresee the Kangas lower than 15th, I also can’t see them having the improvement needed to be higher up the ladder. They won’t make finals, I’ll guarantee that.

North Melbourne must focus on blooding their newfound youth, as well as striving to limit the fallout from their decision to delist those veterans. While they have the potential for a much better result than bottom four, they will struggle to replicate their finals finishes from the past few years.

A disappointing year awaits.

Most influential new player?
The Kangaroos have poached talented Greater Western Sydney youngster Paul Ahern, the Bulldogs Nathan Hrovat and Collingwood’s Marley Williams. Given the calibre of the players who were delisted, these new arrivals have a lot to live up to.

Ahern has potential, so the Roos will be optimistic (and somewhat hopeful) that he overcomes a persistent knee injury. Williams had an average Collingwood career, but will assist in defence – providing he gets games.

Draftee Jy Simpkin (their first pick) will be a hugely beneficial addition to the midfield, which is particularly good given Daniel Wells has moved across town to the Pies. Simpkin’s talent is undeniable, and while he’ll need to acclimatise to the demands of top-tier football, I am excited to see him strut his stuff on the field.

Predicted surprise win of the season?
A win against Hawthorn in Tasmania – Round 21, quite late in the season – would be a very good way to cap of the year, with the memory of 2016’s two losses against the Hawks surely still in the minds of the Arden Street club. Their Round 13 match against the Hawks was particularly disappointing, given their inaccuracy.

I can also genuinely imagine the Roos upsetting a side like West Coast or Adelaide – the latter would be particularly nice, given Adelaide’s win over North in the finals last year.

Worst potential loss of the season?
North will have a few heavy losses, but their first five games in particular are an imperative stretch.

They face four finalists (the Eagles, Geelong, GWS and the reigning premiers), as well as a potentially resurgent Fremantle in the space of a month. Pick up a few heavy losses, and the tone will be set for the remainder of the season.

The loss that would hurt the most would be their Round 3 match against the Giants – down in North’s second home, in Tasmania. A heavy loss against the (in all likelihood) finals-bound Giants would be an infuriating moment for Brad Scott and the club.

Best and fairest winner?
Defender Robbie Tarrant was North Melbourne’s Syd Barker medallist last year, with excellent ruckman Tom Goldstein triumphing the year before. So, those two are obviously in the mix for this year.

I’ll also float the names of new captain Jack Ziebell, defender Scott Thompson and former captain Andrew Swallow. Goldstein’s my pick, though.

14. Richmond Tigers

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Mediocre is a good word to describe Richmond’s 2016 season. Nothing horrendous, but nothing special – a common theme for Tigers fans – and I’m not convinced there’s been enough improvement during this off-season to propel them higher than the midsections of the ladder.

Sure, they’ve managed to poach Dion Prestia and Geelong’s Josh Caddy, but the excellent Brett Deledio is now a Sydneysider and the rest of the team (excluding Alex Rance and Dustin Martin) is just a bit meh.

They’re not going to begin the year with high expectations, though, given they lost five of their last six games to close out 2016. I can certainly see (and I certainly hope) the team emerging as much more resolved and competitive in the years to come, but 2017 is going to be another mediocre year. And I’m not confident about where that leaves Damien Hardwick.

Most influential new player?
There’s only one name that really needs to be mentioned while discussing Richmond’s new players for the upcoming season.

Former Sun Dion Prestia was the player than Richmond were gunning for, and they got their man. Barring any major injuries, he’ll presumably slot straight into their first-choice team come March and the Tigers’ first-up match against Carlton.

Former Cat Josh Caddy is another huge addition and, like Prestia, should be an immediate addition to Richmond’s first choice team.

Their draftees were nothing too special, but South Australian Jack Graham has potential, and first pick Shai Balton is apparently decent.

Surprise win of the season?
Winning their Round 1 match against Carlton would be a decent start. The game itself mightn’t be the most exciting, but the winning feeling will obviously be a good thing for the Punt Road crew.

Defeating Hawthorn – much like North Melbourne – would be hugely beneficial, given their matches against the Hawks in 2016 were both disappointing losses.

And Tigers fans haven’t forgotten that horrid Tasmanian Friday night last year, on which the Kangaroos demolished richmond, so a win against North would be nice revenge.

Worst potential loss of the season?
Richmond cannot, under any circumstances, allow a repeat of 2016’s disastrous Round 19 defeat against the Giants, so the Round 9 match against GWS is a game Richmond should be focussing intensely on.

The stretch between Rounds 5 and 10 might be difficult for the Tigers to navigate – they face three up-and-coming teams in Melbourne, Fremantle and Essendon, as well as Adelaide, the Bulldogs and GWS. If they survive that with limited losses, and I’ll be impressed.

Best and fairest winner?
There’s been a fair mixture of Jack Dyer Medal winners in recent times at Richmond, with captain Trent Cotchin, brilliant defender Alex Rance and midfielder Dustin Martin each winning the award in the past last three years. An excellent year for any of them could easily see them receive the gong again – Cotchin for potentially the fourth time!

So, once the additions of Prestia and Caddy are recognised, any such predictions on who will win the medal are bound to be redundant. It’s just too difficult to pick.

I’m going to just go for it though: Rance will receive Richmond’s best and fairest this year.

13. Essendon

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
There is no need to go into the circumstances surrounding Essendon’s 2016 season, but 2017 is a new dawn for the club. They’ve got their banned players back, they uncovered some gems last season, and the fans are very, very enthusiastic. The sky, as they say, is the limit.

For me, though, that limit is position 13 on my ladder. The Bombers are going to impress, but talk of a return to finals is premature.

There are a lot of unanswered questions. How well are the banned group going to perform upon their return? Is their forward line strong enough? And, perhaps most intriguingly, if three wins were seen as a success last year, what will the hierarchy see as success this year? Will they – and the fans – demand immediate success? Or will they be lenient if the team struggle a bit?

I see them fitting in 13th place, but would not be surprised if they were higher. Not surprised at all.

Most influential new player?
This is easy. Number one draft pick Andrew McGrath is full of potential – and is obviously a damn good player. He will be more than solid in whatever position he ends up.

Apart from McGrath, however, Essendon’s trading and drafting periods were a tad… quiet.

Michael Hibberd went off and became a Demon, and GWS sent key forward James Stewart down, but that was it.

So, yeah, McGrath is going be the Dons’ most influential new player.

Surprise win of the season?
On Anzac Day, Essendon will be celebrating a win over Collingwood. I’m sure of it.

Worst potential loss of the season?
Unfortunately, I see the Bombers suffering defeats at the hands of Hawthorn in Round 1 and Adelaide in Round 4, purely because early in the season Essendon’s team won’t be battle-hardened.

I’d also be wary of Brisbane in Round 2, because, who knows, the Lions might be a young team full of confidence for their first game at the Gabba in 2017.

Best and fairest winner?
In probably the toughest year that Essendon will ever experience, youngster Zach Merrett took out the the WS Crichton Medal.

If the future followed the young theme, then Ozazio Fantasia or 2016’s revelation Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti could be in the running. But, more likely than not, it’ll be one of Essendon’s old guard.

Quick recap

13. Essendon
14. Richmond
15. North Melbourne
16. Carlton
17. Gold Coast Suns
18. Brisbane Lions