It’s that time of the year again, folks. AFL ladder prediction time!

It’s the off-season of actual football and the on-season for predictions, where opinions are floated and argued, opinions are debated, and Roarers crucify other Roarers for placing their beloved teams to low on their ladders (Queensland footy fans, please don’t hate me).

We’ll begin with the bottom three. Enjoy, and I’m looking forward to seeing you in the comments

18. Brisbane Lions

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?

Let’s not kid ourselves: The Lions are not – in any universe – going to make finals. Nor do I see them rising out of the bottom six (or even bottom three). But, will they perform better than their dismal 2016 campaign? Yep.

They’ve got themselves a new coach – Chris Fagan (courtesy of the seemingly endless Hawthorn coach creation machine) – who will no doubt reinvigorate this team. Fagan’s years under Clarkson at Hawthorn will allow him to provide noteworthy guidance to Brisbane’s large group of younger players, who are steadily growing in experience.

The onus is on Brisbane’s leaders – especially Tom Rockliff – to perform at their A-level every game, while being especially mature and enthusiastic for the team’s younger players. It’s a challenging task, but when the team is this low and coming of the back of a year as pathetic as 2016, it’s an imperative one.

I foresee this Lions team as one that will be competitive at its home as the Gabba, and should mix it with those teams among them in the lower echelons of the ladder. Round 1’s match against the Suns will be an interesting barometer into this reinvigorated Lions team. Win that, and the following week’s match against Essendon down in Melbourne as test number two might be a great start for the Lions.

Brisbane fans, you’re going to be in for a long and testing season. But make no doubt, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Most influential new player?
Throughout the 2016 trading and drafting periods, Brisbane welcomed ten new players to its (very antiquated) base. One – Collingwood’s Jack Frost – came in through trading, yet a majority arrived from the Lion’s heaving drafting strategies.

Who out of the ten will be the most influential, though?

Frost will be a fantastic addition to Brisbane’s depleted backline, but I don’t think he’ll be the standout. The Lion’s first pick in the draft – Pick 3 overall – Hugh McCluggage definitely has the pressure on him, but by all account he is a fantastic young midfielder.

Coupled with good friend Jarrod Berry, McCluggage will be integrated into the Lions young yet steadily improving midfield. While all youth will be important for the Lions in 2017, I believe that McCluggage will impress his new team. Besides, there’s got to be a reason why he was taken so early in the draft.

Predicted surprise win of the season?
While it is very difficult to predict specific wins, why not have some fun? The extreme optimist would love the Lions to have an unexpected win against an opponent like Hawthorn (Round 8), Geelong (Round 16) or West Coast (Round 19), it’s more unlikely than likely.

I’m predicting that the Lions are going to win four games in 2017, but the best victory of the year will a close and thrilling victory over the Giants at the Gabba in late June. Will it be difficult? Probably.

Late June is a fair way into the season – about halfway – and the young Lions could very realistically be about to begin a common second-half rut that young and developing teams tend to begin. But what better way to enthuse their Queensland fans than with a win against one of the competitions premier teams. And with a trip to face Essendon the very next week, could we be seeing rare successive wins that the Lions have sorely been lacking in recent seasons?

Worst potential loss of the season?
Once again, predicting a surprise loss for these teams on the lower echelons of the ladder is hard. Because, let’s not sugar-coat this: there’s going be a lot of them. But, what do I predict will be a loss that not only surprises but hurts?

It’s hard to go past any potential loss to fellow Queenslanders in the Suns – either in Round 1, when the team would be full of confidence, or in Round 21, when they’d be looking to end their season off with composure.

Brisbane would also definitely be looking to avoid massive losses (like their horrendous 138 point drubbing by the Crows, or their nasty 83 point lost to Fremantle this season). It’s highly likely that they’d occur, but ensuring that they don’t become regular would be fantastic for the Lions and their development.

Best and fairest winner?
While Dayne Zorko and captain Tom Rockliff have dominated this award in recent years, I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the 2017 Merrett-Murray Medallist will be experienced Lions midfielder Mitch Robinson.

In addition, I also predict that, like 2014, the voting will be tied, and young Brisbane forward Josh Schache will be, with Robinson, a dual recipient of the medal.

I foresee Schache as having an excellent 2017. He’s got one year of experience, and with the Lions midfield – in my eyes – improving, there should be improved supply to the forwards. And Schache should reap the rewards – he’ll lead the goal kicking, and take home the prize.

17. Gold Coast Suns

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Sorry, Queenslanders. The Suns are going to be 17th this year. It’s important for me to say, though, that I don’t believe that this result is going to hang entirely on the Suns themselves, but rather my feelings that most of the teams in this lower part of the latter will be surprisingly equal.

It’s going to be close throughout much of my ladder, but especially down the bottom end.

I don’t foresee any tangible improvement from the Suns – certainly not enough to propel them towards the top eight but also more than enough to not force them below Brisbane on the ladder. While at the end of this season – amidst much media speculation and coverage – they lost two brilliant midfielders in Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara, 2017 will be an a very different year.

They’ve got new co-captains, who should bring a stable leadership to the young team. Experienced recruits will help as well. They’re going to be competitive in a lot of games – no doubt – but I just don’t think they have the polish needed to beat most of the teams above them. Five wins are what I’d be expecting.

Like the Lions, though, I genuinely do think that there is a hell of a lot of light at the end the tunnel. Hold tight, Gold Coast fans.

Most influential new player?
Eleven players were welcomed to the Gold Coast in the offseason this year. Much like the Lions, the Suns had a massive presence at this year’s draft – four top ten picks! Thus, a lot of very good talent walked through the doors – albeit all the while losing the aforementioned Prestia and O’Meara to Victorian teams.

Nonetheless, there’s no club that did as well at the draft as the Suns. They managed to get the like of Ben Ainsworth, Will Brodie and Jack Bowes. That’s not all, because they managed to recruit interstate players such as Fremantle’s Michael Barlow, Brisbane’s Pierce Hanley and Adelaide’s good-but-not-at-all-noticeable Jarryd Lyons.

It’s undeniable that they’ve covered the youth and – to an extent – the experienced player bases quite well. The single most influential new player, though? I’d have to give that honour to Ben Ainsworth. He’s tough, he’s fast and he’s, by all accounts, he is a great player. I’d expect either Ainsworth

Surprise win of the season?
I’m thinking that the Suns are going surprise a Melbourne based team sometime during 2017. They play a Victorian team 13 different times, so I suppose it’s bound to happen. In all seriousness, I can see the Suns beating a team like North Melbourne, Collingwood or Richmond at some stage in 2017. To be fair, none of that would be a legitimate surprise.

That’s why I’m predicting that the Suns will defeat the Western Bulldogs up in Cairns; which will be their surprise win of the season.

Worst potential loss of the season?
Again, like the Lions and the few teams immediately above them, the Suns will have a lot of losses in 2017. But I don’t predict that any will hurt as much as the losses that I forecast them experiencing at the hands of fellow expansion team GWS.

I don’t want to labour a clichéd point, but the stark difference between the Giants and Suns is a sobering reminder of a lot of things: especially just how badly the Suns have been developed compared to their expansion counterpart.

Big losses to other developing teams, for instance Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon or Fremantle, would also severely dent the young Suns confidence.

Best and fairest winner?
Gary Ablett Jnr and Tom Lynch have dominated the Gold Coast club champion award throughout its short history. In essence, a stellar season from either of those two (former and present) captains should see them wrap up another personal milestone at the end of 2017.

I’d be leaning towards Tom Lynch, although allow me to nominate two young lads by the names of Jack Martin and Jarrod Harbrow as left-field candidates. Both were two of the more consistent Suns players in 2016, and from all accounts both are having a strong pre-season.

16. Carlton

In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Sixteenth is bound to be a controversial choice for the Blues, I’m sure. Most would probably believe that the iconic club belong higher up the ladder, while certain individuals would believe that Carlton should belong on one of two of the lower rungs on the ladder. Nonetheless, I reckon the Blues will end up finishing third-last in 2017.

After the utterly rubbish season preceding it, 2016 was the year in which Carlton was rejuvenated, with a new coach and plenty of new faces. And, for the first half of the year, they did pretty well. Decent wins provided Carlton supporters with a renewed optimism, and then they didn’t do quite as well for the second half.

In 2017, I’m anticipating that Carlton will show new strength – with some highly competitive games, and most probably some great wins – but due to more consistent seasons of the teams immediately above them, they’ll struggle to break out of the bottom three.

Most influential new player?
Once again, and like the two teams below them, the Blues were highly active in the trading and drafting periods. Notwithstanding the Gibbs issue, Carlton by and large got most of the players they desired – in particular landing the highly talented draftee Sam Petrevski-Seton (who my personal first round wish for the Dockers to grab) and trading in the Giant’s Caleb Marchbank.

Both definitely have the potential to impact Carlton’s list in a very influential manner. They both add to Carlton’s relatively weak midfield; and in the case of Marchbank, he’s proved himself as a very talented player in his time in Sydney’s west.

Surprise win of the season?
I’m predicting it now: the Blues are going to defeat Hawthorn at some stage in 2017. My memory, admittedly, is still tainted with scenes from Carlton’s dreadful 2015 Friday night games against the then-premiers, but I’m confident that a internal Carlton wish would be to take down the Hawks, and their chance to do that next year will come only once – in Round 22.

A win towards the end of what’s likely to be a very long season will take real resilience from what’s likely to be a fatigued young playing group, but what a way to cap of the season it would be.

A win against Richmond in Round 1 – they could win against the Tigers – would be an excellent note to begin the season on.

Worst potential loss of the season?
Again, like the other two, it’s difficult to pinpoint which losses will hurt the most. An opening round humiliation at the hands of Richmond would be bad, but as mentioned they could win 2017’s opening game. Losses against traditional rivals are never nice, so Carlton will certainly be striving to avoid losses to Collingwood and Essendon. A prospective loss at the Gabba against Brisbane would almost certainly be among the worse though.

Best and fairest winner?
Veteran Sam Docerty won the John Nichcoll’s Medal this year. I don’t expect he’d be doing that again in 2017, though. A vintage season from veterans Marc Murphy or Bryce Gibbs would be many a Carlton fan’s hope, but I’m happy enough to predict that superstar youngster Patrick Gibbs will receive 2017’s Carlton best.

I’m confident that he’s going to return to his superstar best in 2017, and I just can’t think of anyone else who’d come close to matching the youngster in Carlton’s camp.