So long Sir Andy, we'll Mischa - but who's the favourite now?

By Josh / Expert

As if Novak Djokovic’s shock loss to Denis Istomin earlier this week wasn’t enough, the Australian Open men’s singles draw has now lost its No.1 seed, with Andy Murray bundled out in four sets by world No.50 Mischa Zverev.

It’s an especially heartbreaking loss for Murray who, with Djokovic out of the picture, looked a huge chance to claim his first ever Australian Open title.

The Scot has made the final of the tournament in Melbourne on five occasions, but has never once been able to go all the way.

It’s the first time since 2004 that neither of the top two seeds have reached the quarter-finals at a grand slam, and will be only the third time in the last ten years that we’ve had an Australian Open final without Djokovic or Murray present.

He’ll have to wait another year for another chance, but there’s bigger business to get to. Now we ask ourselves, with the world’s top two players out of the picture, who becomes the favourite?

There are just three men left in the field now who have previously won grand slam titles, and all of them have at least one win in Melbourne – Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka.

Federer and Nadal obviously are two of the biggest names in the sport and have enjoyed one of modern-day tennis’ greatest rivalries over the course of their careers.

However, both have been some time now without winning a grand slam, many doubting their ability to ever do so again – and battles with injury have not helped.

Federer is a four-time Australian Open winner, most recently in 2010, but hasn’t won a grand slam of any kind since Wimbledon 2012.

For Nadal the Australian Open has been his least-happy hunting ground, winning only once, in 2009. His most recent triumph at was the 2014 French Open.

A tournament with no Djokovic or Murray to stand in their way might be the last chance for both 35-year-old Federer and 30-year-old Nadal to taste grand slam success one more time.

In a delightful twist of fate, the fixture is perfectly lined up for Roger and Rafa to meet in what would be a rivalry-defining final if all goes well for them between now and then.

Wawrinka on the other hand has won three grand slams over the last three years, including here in Australia in 2014. He’s had greater consistency in recent times than Federer or Nadal, and probably takes the No.1 contender title now that Murray is gone.

Of course the other possibility in the mix is that we could find a winner from outside those five names so familiar, and it would be the first time since Marat Safin’s 2005 triumph that the Australian Open did not belog to Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Wawrinka.

Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori have spent many years biding their time and waiting for a chance at a maiden grand slam win. Both have been through the experience of losing a final, often a vital step on the road to a win.

Or perhaps a younger, lower-ranked star like Grigor Dimitrov or Dominic Thiem is ready to stand up and do something amazing. Neither has made it further than the semi-finals before, but the opportunity is now there for the taking.

Whatever happens from here, one thing is certain – with the top two seeds flying home before the quarter-finals, this Australian Open has become very interesting.

Betting favourites – Australian Open 2017 men’s singles
Stan Wawrinka $3.60
Milos Raonic $4
Roger Federer $4.33
Rafael Nadal $6
Grigor Dimitrov $7
Kei Nishikori $10

The Crowd Says:

2017-01-23T11:19:44+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


Questioning the validity of Federer's majors due to the poor quality of his final opponents is one thing, and perhaps you can mount an argument. However, this is far removed from providing any substance or evidence to the great one choking. Your memories of the 17 slam wins seems a little vague and placing Hewitt and Roddick anywhere near the poo is an insult to both. You do know Hewitt was a hell of a tennis player don't you?

2017-01-23T06:17:57+00:00

Eden

Guest


Federer changed the game in his generation beating anybody with ease. Nadal, Djoker and Murray are all the resulting evolution of tennis to beat Roger. Assisted by slower courts, bigger racquets and 5 years of youth they wrestled the dominance away from him not by playing better but playing longer and harder. Fed has hung around for a crazy amount of time challenging those guys and still doing it at 35. There has also been precious little of the genration at the 20-30 year old range doing anything like what Rafa and djoker were doing at that age. It's a credit to all four of them that they produced such a great era. But choking is a terrible assessment. Fed definitely had a bogey in Nadal, but Nadals game is uniquely effective against him. The turn of results to Nadal came as Fed aged (had kids, hung on to a smaller racquet for too long) and Nadal matured. I'm a Federer fan so I am biased but I accept Nadal has a great record against him, but Federer was the one who stood up to Djoker when he peaked (plus Stan did), and comparing rafa to djoker you get a similar imbalance.

2017-01-23T02:18:37+00:00

Blake Standfield

Roar Guru


Firstly that was a great win by Federer but I stand by calling him a choker. He is mentally fragile as is demonstrated by his all things considered poor record in five set matches, his mental road block against a far inferiorly skilled Nadal and his last three Grand Slam final losses to Djokovic. His skills were just so superior for so long that it wasn't an issue. The majority of Feds slam wins were against the likes of Phillipoussis, Safin, Roddick, Hewitt, Baghdatis, Gonzalez and Soderling as well as wins against a young Djokovic and a young Nadal on grass. From 2014 he leads the head to head with Djokvic 5-3 in ATP tour events but trails 3-0 in slams. Fed is my favorite player, he's the most skilled player of all time and still the most skilled player on tour. But his amazing record either should be better than it is or is inflated by a period of low quality opposition.

2017-01-22T20:53:15+00:00

Lancey5times

Roar Rookie


If Roger gets to the final he will win it but I don't think he will get past Stan. Rafa doesn't have the legs to make it to Sunday. Stan v Milos in the final. Stan in 4

2017-01-22T13:01:05+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


Ran through the finishing tape, no sign of a choke. Blake was a bit off.

2017-01-22T13:00:28+00:00

Brian

Guest


Raonic to beat federer in the final. Also shouldnt discount dmitrov

2017-01-22T12:44:52+00:00

Matth

Guest


I think it might be Rafa. He is looking more like his old self, but the other one for me is Raonic. He is a great chance to break through.

2017-01-22T11:11:45+00:00

Scott Pryde

Expert


Well played on the headline. Hopefully it's Federer vs Nadal one last time.

2017-01-22T11:11:34+00:00

Scott Pryde

Expert


Is that the dumbest comment in the history of The Roar Blake? Seem to think so.

2017-01-22T11:04:42+00:00

Stuart Thomas

Expert


A known choker indeed. Blake a little respect please, he might lose, but he won't choke.

2017-01-22T10:03:31+00:00

jameswm

Roar Guru


Yeah cos Fed has a history of choking rather than winning, doesn't he?

2017-01-22T08:26:14+00:00

Blake Standfield

Roar Guru


Federer will choke tonight now that he has a clear path to winning the tournament.

2017-01-22T07:37:00+00:00

jonty smith

Roar Guru


wawrinka v thiem final i believe

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