Super Rugby preview: Tahs second best, but it's Foley's call

I’ve pegged them for second in the Australian conference in 2017, but even the smug Queensland fans counting along on their fingers will know it’s going to be a tight race to the top this season.

Kurtley Beale accepting Wasps’ ‘Godfather deal’ last season might not be so hard to overcome; the ‘Tahs did, after all, play the second half of last season without Beale. And very nearly topped the Australian conference. There’s no reason to think they can’t do just that this year.

Click to read Brett’s other predictions about the Australian conference, with the Rebels to come third, the Brumbies fourth and the Force to finish fifth.

Headline notwithstanding. And the prediction thing, of course.

Forwards
I’ll be intrigued to see how the Waratahs’ front row balls fall into place this season. Their scrummaging was a huge part of what held them back in games in the first half of the season, but the rapid rise of Tom Robertson and the surprisingly effective switch to loosehead by Paddy Ryan stabilised things nicely.

But what happens this season? Sekope Kepu decided Bordeaux wasn’t for him, and he quit the club, too, returning to Australia in time for the 2016 international season. Tom Robertson was strangely used at loosehead on the Spring Tour (at the same time Brumbies loosehead Allan Alaalatoa was played at tighthead), Ryan’s good form carried over the NRC, where he also found something of a carry-and-offload game.

Interestingly, Robertson started at loosehead in Thursday night’s trial against the Highlanders.

The return of Damien Fitzpatrick at hooker is a great story, and he had a really strong NRC season for the Sydney Rays. He’ll be battling with Wallabies tourist Tolu Latu and Hugh Roach for the right to inherit Tatafu Polota-Nau’s starting jersey. It’s quite an intriguing three-way scrum- and lineout-off, of which Latu appears to hold the clubhouse lead.

I have to admit, I’ve been surprised at the amount of gnashing of teeth about the Waratahs’ lock stocks. A rotation of Dean Mumm, Will Skelton, Ned Hanigan, and ex-Red Dave McDuling is pretty handy at Super Rugby level. It’s been interesting to read of Skelton’s supposed lineout improvements during his stint at Saracens in England, playing alongside England locks George Kruis and Maro Itoje. I can’t wait for Michael Cheika’s grin if the stint ends up being the making of Skelton.

The backrow of Jack Dempsey-Jed Holloway-Michael Hooper pretty much picks itself, but Michael Wells returning home from the Brumbies could yet prove very handy.

Backs
I reckon there are at least three other Australian sides who would love the luxury of scrumhalves Matt Lucas and Jake Gordon in reserve. You’d have to think the Brumbies, for just one example, would love to have one of them right now. If I’m honest, I don’t know why a loan deal hasn’t been worked out. Both had excellent NRC seasons to finish 2016, and it’s a shame one will remain in the ‘no.1s’ each week. But both will keep Nick Phipps on his toes, and that’s not a bad thing at all.

In the absence of Beale, it looms as a big season for Bernard Foley at flyhalf; but more on him soon enough. And in the centres, it’s genuinely exciting to hear that Irae Simone and Israel Folau both had strong games in the trial against the Highlanders, and that both caused their fair share of midfield damage.

Out wide, things look to be falling into place pretty well, too. Reece Robinson looked properly at home on the right wing by the end of the NRC season, and he and Andrew Kellaway have a pretty solid 14-15 combination as well. And then it just becomes a matter whether they get more impact out of Taqele Naiyaravoro starting games or coming off the bench to finish them.

Key player
It’s not Israel Folau, though he’ll definitely be important. But it is the guy who will directly influence how effective Folau is in attack: Foley.

With a certain Queenslander back in Super Rugby, Foley needs to have a really strong season to prove his international worth. And that will take care of itself with a strong showing in Super Rugby, where he suddenly has some serious strike-running power ready to feed off him.

Foley’s best game for the Wallabies last season was the excellent win over Wales, where he played flat and close to the line, and let his running options do the attack-straightening and line-bending. The Waratahs have played like this before, too, so it’s not foreign to them, and with likes of Simone, Folau, Robinson, and Naiyaravoro or even Harry Jones ready to hit a gap, there’s no reason for Foley to be trying to do everything himself.

And if Foley gets this part of his game right, the Waratahs will take some stopping.

First five rounds
Force, Lions (away), Sharks (away), Brumbies, Rebels (away)

The Waratahs have got a tough old start to the season, too, heading to Africa in week two, and following this block with tough games against the Crusaders, and then the Hurricanes in Wellington.

But they should be winning at least three and maybe even four of those first five, with the Lions at Ellis Park likely to be the stumbling block. Getting their African tour out of the way could prove to be hugely advantageous, both from the point of view of getting it out of the way early, and the ability to ‘get away on tour with the boys’ nice and early as well. And if they welcome the Crusaders to Sydney in Round 6 with four wins on the board already, well they’re away, aren’t they.