Winx is simply a sensation – far too good for any of her opposition and barring disaster, she’s well on her way to being one of Australia’s best horses.
The win on the weekend was quite the test. The heavy track had plenty of her fans and short-priced favourite punters genuinely fearful.
As it was, she again did it easily against her rivals and looking back, the win doesn’t appear too notable.
But for those watching, it was almost heart-in-mouth stuff due to the unknowns of the deep bog that was the state of Randwick’s surface. Given the margin of victory (two lengths) and the relative margin of Who Shot Thebarman back in third (three lengths), it’s clearly not her preferred surface. But she managed it.
So her run of 15 wins on the trot is starting to edge towards Black Caviar’s 25 wins in a row.
But it’s not about her consecutive win record now, she’s racing for her legacy.
Black Caviar stands alone as our greatest ever sprinter. But she’s not considered in the top five of all time, simply because her unique, brilliant gifts didn’t lend themselves to our great races over much further distances. No knock – just the reality of it.
Winx is at least closing in on Black Caviar’s greatness, and has even surpassed the great sprinter in the eyes of some. The Chris Waller-trained mare is simply more versatile, and if she can go on she certainly will surpass Black Caviar.
But Winx might just be able to reach the highest of high echelons if given the chance – a chance to be a top five or top three Australian horse of all time.
While she doesn’t have an unbeaten record to protect, the problem with her winning streak is that connections won’t want to see it interrupted. But if they truly believe she’s one of the best ever, they must give her a crack at joining the true legends club, featuring names like Phar Lap, Carbine, Tulloch, and Kingston Town.
Winx has won between 1100m and 2200m, including those two magnificent Cox Plate wins. Her other eight Group 1s include the Doncaster Mile, Espom Handicap, the Chipping Norton twice, and the Queensland Oaks. She needs more.
How Winx can go from great to legend
A third Cox Plate, and a fourth
To win three Cox Plates would elevate Winx to only the second horse to have achieved this feat, joining Kingston Town. Sunline won it twice, as did Northerly before her, and the likes of Phar Lap, Tranquil Star, Beauvite, and more recently So You Think.
To win four would re-write the history books. It’s a tough ask – she’d need to hold this outrageous form for another 20 months. And if she did, the competition she might face would probably have thinned dramatically.
Win overseas
This is more important than ever in the modern era. Winning away from home and taking it to the opposition on their turf is a huge ask that commands respect. While we’re more likely to measure her against Australian champions in the decades to come, for the sport and to show how good she is, it’s a big one.
If she could dominate like she does here for one or two races at Royal Ascot against class opponents, or even in somewhere like Japan or Hong Kong, it’d put a big tick in her book.
Makybe Diva gave Japan a go, finishing seventh in two races in 2005, including the Group 1 Tenno Sho (3200m).
Win over further distance
How fantastic would it be for Winx to attempt to win over 2400m, giving her a chance at adding the Group 1 BMW (2400m) or even the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)?
They are major Group 1s to have on her resume and if she can win over 2400m, perhaps even an Arc might appeal. That would be something.
Melbourne Cup
This one is out there, but if she can continue to win over distance, should we dare to dream of a Melbourne Cup attempt over the gruelling 3200m? To win the big one would do amazing things for her legacy, and standing within the wider public.
In generations past, true champions took on every race and while racing has changed, it’d be amazing to see her on the first Tuesday of November.
The issue is she’d cop a big handicap, huge even, as the third best horse in the world. It’s hard to know exactly how much weight she’d be given by the handicapper – as much as Makybe Diva’s third attempt (58kgs), or in excess of that to 60kgs and beyond? She’s probably missed her chance when she would’ve beaten the handicapper as a four-year-old.
Is there any reason she can’t?
The biggest knock on Winx is that her three-year-old season just wasn’t as good as our all-time champions, winning four out her ten races and placing three times.
She didn’t win at Group 1 level in Sydney races, making up for that by heading to Queensland for their Winter Carnival and winning the Group 1 Queensland Oaks.
Phar Lap, for example, won 13 out of 20 of his three-year-old races, including nine straight, and placed in three others including a third in the Melbourne Cup, after winning the VRC Derby three days early. Truly a marvel.
Carbine won nine of 13 starts as a three-year-old, including a win in the AJC Sydney Cup (3200m) carrying 5.5kg over weight-for-age. He won 17 of 18 races following this.
Kingston Town won 12 from his 15 three-year-old starts, only missing down in Melbourne, his worst result a fourth in the Caulfield Cup.
What’s next for Winx
Having decided to skip the Australian Cup as expected, her next race will at Rosehill on March 18, for the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m). She should then take on the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, three weeks after on April 8.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Danedream who won the 2011 Arc was every good a horse as SYT if not better. To say SYT should have won that years Arc as a certainty is a lazy comment
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Why not The Everest?
Aransan
Guest
I am not sure Winx's best racing distance would be 2000m (or 10 furlongs) internationally as the racing patterns are quite different. So You Think was regarded as a stayer in Australia with a third in a Melbourne Cup but his Irish trainer Aiden O'Brien suspected that he was actually a miler (1600m) the way races were run in Europe. How many of our very best horses could have competed successfully against the world's best horses? Exclude the sprinters where we have had the world's best but note that especially from a breeding point of view sprinters are not regarded as highly internationally.
DJ
Guest
Until Winx races against a 2000m specialist like Werther who has international credibility and experience her tenure as "our best ever" is tenable. Hugh Bowman surmised: "Werther is a stronger horse than Winx" and he should know. Undoubtedly Winx is the best horse in Australia but until she competes against the best in the world in Sha Tin, Ascot or Dubai the verdict is still out
Cameron Rose
Expert
I wondered if someone would bring up my article after Winx's first Plate. I was at pains to point out that the track bias was disgraceful that day, and we didn't see an even playing field. I'm really pleased she's gone on with it. I think it's too late to run her in a Melbourne Cup now. She'd have to get far too much weight.
michael steel
Guest
Hi Sheek, it's like this, which horse would I rather own . The answer is Winks. I admired Black Caviar but I just love Winx. I'd say the only issue I have with both of these champions is that Black Caviar had one serious opponent in Hay List and Winx has Hartnell. What we forget in all this conversation is the great golden period from about 1987 to 1993 when he had in no particular order Bonecrusher, Vo Rogue, Super Impose , Better Loosen Up, Shaftesbury Avenue, Rough Habit , and Let's Elope Naturalism and Veandercross and many more all competing. None of these will get mentioned in the same category because they had to meet each other on a regular basis. For the record, Super Impose never finished ahead of Vo Rogue.
joe
Guest
Thats a dumb comment.So Black Caviar winning a bunch of sprint races versus mediocre competition would have more appeal & aura about it than if Winx was to come 2nd in an epic middle distance WFA Group 1 versus the best horses in Australia or elsewhere? Sure. Kingston Town didn't win the Melbourne Cup but his performance in 1982 coming 2nd was epic,a race to remember.Muhammad Ali lost fights vs quality opponents that are still remembered as all time great performances.Yeah he lost but the loss was a more memorable outing because of how good his opponent was,both fighters rose to greater heights than they could ever have vs a cupcake opponent.Sure Ali would have won vs a chump fighter but nobody would remember it.Sometimes losing in an epic fight or race outweighs a win vs a subpar opponent. Same with horse racing.
Raimond
Roar Guru
For me, the real test is the United States (the country that is, not the horse!). American races are genuine races -- the pressure goes on from the start. How, for instance, would Winx handle a situation where the leaders hammered out a sub-45s half-mile? I would love to see this. If she failed, well that doesn't matter. But what if she weaved through the field to swamp the leaders in the shadows of the post? That would be something else...
Raimond
Roar Guru
25/25 > 19/25. There's an aura that surrounds an unbeaten horse, and as great as Winx obviously is, she'll never have it.
Aransan
Guest
Ah, the good old days! Black Caviar was beatable over 1400m and I am sure Winx would have beaten her over that distance. I don't think BC had to run against the best horses to prove that she was a pure sprinter, that was obvious and in fact the testing course at Royal Ascot over 6 furlongs nearly found her out -- don't pay too much attention to the excuses given after the race. By the same token, not too much should be read into her unbeaten 25 consecutive wins record either but it was thrilling and Moody protected her reputation very well. If BC had run in the Doncaster she wouldn't have run a place and that might well have been her last race. I am sure the breed of middle distance and staying horses has significantly improved since 1903 but perhaps the modern horses are more like finely tuned Ferraris compared to their earlier counterparts. How would Wakeful run carrying merely wfa against the overseas horses that we see running in the Melbourne Cup these days? And we aren't seeing the world's best horses either in the "worlds richest handicap". The staying breed has improved significantly over a century and the competition these days is a lot stronger as well.
sheek
Roar Guru
Michael, You make a very good point. Of course, it's extremely difficult to tie horses down to just being sprinters (1000-1400m), or middlers (1400-2000m) or stayers (2000m plus). Then there's wfa-ers & handicappers. The very best horses are remembered who were challenged & successful over a variety of distances & huge weights. Unfortunately owners seem to have different mindset today. They race their horses just often enough in a handful of big ticket races to bump the stud fee up, then retire them. Good for them but ai think horse racing gets short-changed because of this. Racing has always been an expensive exercise, but is it that much more expensive today that owners & breeders have this mindset of getting horses back into stud with unseemly haste?
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Thanks for this comment - I agree that 'failing' at longer distances wouldn't diminish her standing at all. No one takes anything away from the champs who tried!
sheek
Roar Guru
Tristan, I think Winx is better than Black Caviar for the reasons you give, she was more versatile. The great horses in our history were capable of winning over a variety of distances often carrying huge weights in handicaps. I know it's a harsh word to use, but BC's connections were somewhat 'cowardly' in refusing to push her boundaries of capabilities. I think to some extent, they did her an injustice. Imagine if BC had been asked to carry a back breaking weight as Wakeful did in the 1903 Melbourne Cup & get heroically beaten into second place. Imagine if BC had carried the piano on her back in a Doncaster over 1600m & finished 2nd or 3rd. it would have actually enhanced her reputation. It certainly did that for Wakeful back in 1903. And she certainly wouldn't have been asked to carry anywhere near the back breaking 63.5 kgs (10s) that Wakeful had to carry over 3200m.
michael steel
Guest
She is one of the greatest of all time. How could she not be? Two Cox Plates a Doncaster and Epsom put her in that category. I made the comment the other day the comparing Winx to Black Caviar is like comparing Muhammad Ali to Marvin Hagler. No one in boxing would do that so why do horse racing experts find this comparison necessary when it's stupid and boring. Winx can be compared to So You Think and Northerly, Sunline and Kingston Town and basically other Cox Plate winners and Doncaster and Epsom winners who carried top weight like the Super horse. Black Caviar can be compared to Placid Ark, Vain, and Manikato and depending on how old you are your opinion will differ. I love every horse I've mentioned here for varieties of reasons. And poor old Hartnell, well he can be compared to Tie the Knot.
Blake
Guest
Because she is a race horse.
joe
Guest
You're spot on Cameron.The Winx/Black Caviar comparison is ridiculous IMO. Black Caviar was racing in sprint races which are all well & good but Winx is & had been doing it in the absolute best Group 1 middle distance races for the most part & doing it easily.I remember you criticizing her after her first Cox Plate victory but you quickly admitted you were wrong,she is flat out head & shoulders above the rest. She may be the best horse in Australia since Kingston Town. He was sensational & was able to do it over a bigger variety of distances than Winx has been able to,at least so far. I don't know if she can do the Melbourne Cup? They might weight her out of having a legit chance to win.They saddled Kingston Town with a bunch of weight, he ran an amazing race but just came up short.I think in 1982.
Punter
Guest
I don't know about her overtaking BC yet. There have been horses before in the Winx style, but can you truly say there has been another horse you could compare to BC with the same talent AND race record? It really is unprecedented in Australian racing. Not saying Winx can't eclipse her eventually, if you add in another Cox and perhaps a world class international race.
Punter
Guest
What would put Winx in a more legendary position in Australian racing folklore than if she went over to France and won the Arc, or if she carried weight to win the Melbourne Cup? Either would tip her into GOAT calculations. The questing is - is she good enough? Maybe we don't want to know..
George
Guest
Personally I've never understood the cultural cringe that some have in this country that says our champions have to go overseas to prove themselves. Why? There isn't a horse in the world that would beat Winx at her top racing in this country and surely thats all that matters. As has been pointed out many times if any OS wants to take her on let them come here and try. A quick look at past champions who have been " taken out of their comfort zones" or been taken overseas doesn't make very good reading. Phar Lap died on his OS jaunt of a massive internal bleed. Forget the conspiracy theories our vets have always believed it was caused from a stress related condition, probably bad stomach ulcers. Bernborough broke down badly. Tulloch nearly died of a severe scouring condition, again stress related. Kingston Town was notoriously unsound but was raced on and eventually died younger than he should have from injuries he received during his racing career. Ditto Manikato. That's not to mention the horses who have gone overseas and never been the same on their return. Chatauqua being the latest. Why would anyone want risk Winx?
Cameron Rose
Expert
If Winx was to retire now, I think I would have to rate her ahead of Black Caviar. I also agree with everyone else, it's important that she head overseas at some point, but when? It would have to be 2018, because a third Cox Plate simply must be strived for. I love the fact she's dropping back to the George Ryder next, which will hopefully have a Chautauqua with rediscovered mojo. Waller had to run her on Saturday if he wants to win the Queen Elizabeth, because he would have known there was a good chance the track would be heavy then. Better to see her on it now rather than wait until the grand final.