At the beginning of the season, I was asked several times who would win the premiership. After answering the Canberra Raiders, I would then mention how the more interesting question was which teams were going to make the top eight.
At the time, I thought there were only two teams incapable of making the eight – the Knights and the Dragons.
I envisaged a competition where seventh and eighth spot would come down to the final weeks, with several teams vying to play finals footy.
Having watched the opening three rounds of the competition, I was on the money.
If the first three rounds are anything to go by, a sneaky tip for this weekend might be for the Tigers to end the Storm’s unbeaten streak.
There have been some extraordinary upsets so far, serving as a stark reminder – particularly to teams that may have believed their own pre-season hype – that there are no guarantees when it comes to playing finals football.
Here are my biggest (and most surprising!) upsets so far.
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St George Illawarra Dragons 42-10 Penrith Panthers (Round 1)
Before a ball had been kicked in 2017, the Panthers were considered premiership contenders and the Dragons were predicted to finish the season at the bottom.
And unsurprisingly so.
In 2016, the Dragons found themselves second last in almost every attacking stat recorded, including points scored, tries, linebreaks and try assists.
For those who thought the Dragons would offer more of the same in 2017, this game was them proving us wrong. You only had to look at Jack de Belin’s face when he scored his try to know that the home team had turned up to play football.
Much of the Dragons’ success in this game (and yesterday, against the Sharks) was due to a reinvigorated forward pack. Against the Panthers, Russell Packer and Paul Vaughan both played less than 55 minutes, but still managed to run for 174 and 189 metres respectively.
Even more impressive was that the Red V outran the Panthers by almost 700 metres.
While the hype has focused on Luke Keary as the buy of the season, this was Cam McInnes’s debut in the red and white jersey, and he certainly impressed, with a try and an assist over a highly effective 80 minutes.
There were some worrying signs for the Panthers and the signs continue, having won only one game so far, against a Tigers side which has been impotent (at best) in the last two weeks.
The next three games for Penrith are crucial, taking on the Knights, Storm and Rabbitohs. If they don’t win two out of these three games, a top-four finish becomes a challenging prospect (particularly considering the calibre of players the Panthers will be missing during the State of Origin period).
Gold Coast Titans 26-14 Parramatta Eels (Round 3)
Who saw this one coming?
The Eels had been one of the most impressive teams in the competition, but against an injury-ravaged Titans, Parra played their worst football since June 2016, when the Cowboys scored five tries in ten minutes to beat them 36-30.
Impatience. Lack of respect. Poor options. This describes what the Eels dished up on Friday night.
On several occasions, they decided to try and pop the miracle ball and failed miserably. With a 74 per cent completion rate and 13 errors, Parramatta were their own worst enemy.
The errors that hurt the most though were those of Semi Radradra, who dropped two simple passes inside his ten-metre zone in the space of ten minutes and put tremendous pressure on the team, who went from having a two-point lead to trailing by six in a short period of time.
Expect the Titans to be without Jarryd Hayne, Will Zillman, Dan Sarginson and Tyrone Roberts next week. But even with these injury concerns, the Titans were able to pull off one of the most stunning upsets of the season so far, thanks mainly to the short kicking game of Ash Taylor, and the efforts of Jarrod Wallace and Ryan James.
North Queensland Cowboys 8-30 Manly Sea Eagles (Round 3)
This was not a performance fans are accustomed to seeing from North Queensland. Missing several key players, including Matt Scott, Antonio Winterstein and Lachlan Coote, the Cowboys made an uncharacteristic 12 errors and conceded 11 penalties.
What interested me the most about this game though was that the dominance we have come to expect from their forward pack was still present. Scott Bolton ran for 176 metres, Ethan Lowe for 158 and Coen Hess for 144. This is in comparison to the Sea Eagles, who looked to their backline for those sorts of metres, with Akuila Uate and Tom Trobojevic (among others) cracking triple digits.
If Manly are going to make any impact on this competition, they need more from their forwards, with Brenton Lawrence the only one to make the 100-metre mark.
Defence does win games, as the Sea Eagles discovered this weekend – but to win this year’s NRL competition, you’ll need a bit more than that.
I would also like to commend both the Dragons and the Knights on their efforts so far this year.
The Knights currently sit 12th on the ladder, having won one game out of their first three. Considering Newcastle only won one game in total last season, 2017 is already looking positive.
Their losses were to the Warriors and the Bunnies, by six points or less on each occasion. While Knights fans probably won’t be expecting a top-eight finish, a season with six or seven wins is certainly achievable.
And as for the Dragons, who said they had no chance of making the top eight?
bearfax
Guest
Lidcombe you are inadvertently identifying the major point in this argument. Injuries. You identify five teams you consider are definites if they go through uninjured, based on what they did last year and your perception of the value of the players they have. But maybe you forgot that those five teams were among the least affected by injury last year and that in itself gave them a leg up. Teams like the Roosters, Sea Eagles, Dragons,Tigers etc had dreadful injury tolls and therefore could not play anywhere near their best. So assuming those five going through with few injuries are a definite, forgets that some other teams if they are able to stay injury free, could be just as likely to be in that top five. I notice you also forgot the Panthers, who were the big movers last year. They've had an unsteady start but they look to have a strong side. Then there's The Dragons and Sea Eagles. Both have belted some of the favoured teams with injuries at a minimum. So much depends on injuries and it wont be that five that will determine the outcome this year, it will be injuries as usual.
Lidcombe Oval
Guest
I would be surprised if the grand finalist and premiers are not from the top 5 (Storm/Broncos/Cows/Sharks/Raiders). The gap between the top 5 and the rest will show as the season progresses. This will mean 11 teams will be battling for the token final 3 top 8 places without any hope of winning the comp- People may disagree but explain how any of the remaining 11 teams will match the top 5 if they are at or close to their best and injury free.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It was definitely an upset win. The fact they won so well makes it a greater upset. The fact Manly won so well away from home makes it an even greater upset. The fact Manly won so well away from home and missing four front towers makes it a massive upset! The fact it was a massive upset takes nothing away from Manly's win. If anything it enhances it. They thoroughly deserved it.
Aaron
Guest
Keep dreaming. Taupau could get close to being world class, if he can rein in his aggression and do the hard yards when his team needs it the most. Right now he's more like a Matai (note - Matai was a gun when he was on the field, but spent every second week injured or suspended). The only time Lussick gets close to JT2 and Scott is on the team lists.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
The warriors coming good is about as likely as SNL becoming funny. Sure you might have a giggle here and there and every once in a while you might get a belly laugh, but it doesn't discount the endless waves of disappointment.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
I think the major problem for the cowboys in that game was slow play the balls in the red zone. Scott and Taumalolo are quick play the ball specialists. Especially close to the line. Too many players were getting put on their back and taking an age to stand up and play the ball allowing the manly line to settle and rush Thurston and/or Morgan. Didn't help not having Coote who basically plays left side 6. As good as Ponga may end up being, at this point he's just a ball runner.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
Really silly decision to challenge Taumalolos shoulder charge at the judiciary. Especially in the new season with the new interpretation in what was basically the testing case. Hopefully for their sake they don't lose anyone else. Without Scott their front row options are barely bare. If Bolton, or god forbid Taumalolo go down they'll struggle big time the rest of the season. So much of the cowboys gameplan revolves around bringing those boys on around the 55-65 minute mark and dominating the final quarter or so of the game right up the middle.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah, it's impossible to form a decision about a team or a coach unless you attend every training session.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
Facial fracture from Rd 1. Back next week.
Kevin Malone
Guest
what is it about Mary you dont like do you go to dragons training sessions or hold an uniformed view?
Kevin Malone
Guest
perrett was dropped
The spectator
Guest
I am far from upset that manly won, whos upset!
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Yeah there was an article preseason about how they have restrictured themselves into an NFL style club. Mary is basically solely in charge of coaching and clearly its done wonders.
Zedman
Roar Rookie
Mary, if the Tiges defeat the Storm after the dross they have delivered in the past fortnight a major investigation will commence.
Craig
Guest
It was definitely an upset. Winning by 2, 20 or 40 doesn't determine whether or not it was an upset.
Aem
Guest
Relax, it's just the first six rounds... not even the bookies are particularly good at picking them at this point in the season. The pecking order will soon begin to become clearer...
The Barry
Roar Guru
Agreed. Great effort by the Dragons to win 2/3 against quality opponents but I'm still not sold on their attack. Round 1 they had three tries scored by Thompson and JDB strolling through paper thin Panthers defence on what were just meant to be regulation hit ups. They scored two long range tries from Panthers errors. Two tries against the Sharks against the run of play. You take them all where you can get them but they're still struggling to score in general play. Their defence looks pretty solid but basing a whole season D can quickly get exhausting. Any team not on their game will get battered by the Dragons but most teams that get 14 or 16 against them will get the two points.
Kaks
Roar Guru
Norman to win the Daly M if he plays the whole season and doesn’t get on the gear. It's Tic Tacs KC, not gear ;)
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
Let the fun begin!
bearfax
Guest
Playing pedantic word play misses the point entirely doesnt it. The primary argument is not about what word is appropriate but how the win should be assessed against other wins and the causes for those results. Call it what you will, the issue is how you interpret the causes of the win. That's what the argument is about not whether I crossed my Ts.