Thursday night forecast: Richmond vs Collingwood

How to write the Thursday night forecast this week – as the sober football judge, or as the rabid Richmond fan?

As the girl in the taco ad says, why not have both!

Sober football judge
Richmond has beaten Collingwood in three of their last four clashes, with the loss occurring on the last kick of the night in Round 2 last year, when ruckman Brodie Grundy performed the role of sharp-shooting rover after being in the right place at the right time.

Both sides impressed enough in Round 1, with the Tigers taking care of the Blues in better-than-expected fashion, and the Pies outplaying the Bulldogs for the majority of the match, but just lacking some polish at key moments.

Richmond have made three changes, with Ben Lennon at the crossroads replacing Sam Lloyd to offer a more viable high half-forward option. Jayden Short comes in for Taylor Hunt as small defender, with less experience but better skills. Kane Lambert comes in as another inside midfield option after Collingwood’s stoppage dominance last week, replacing Kamdyn McIntosh, who is an outside runner but disposed of the ball horrendously against Carlton.

The Pies lose Travis Varcoe to suspension, but bring in James Aish as a more than competent outside runner, who would have been disappointed not to make the Round 1 side. Mason Cox makes way for the talented Tim Broomhead, losing a tall for a mobile in-betweener. There is a bit of rain scheduled in Melbourne today, and the Pies needed some more defensive pressure inside forward 50.

The two teams looks to match-up well across the ground. Pendlebury versus Cotchin. Treloar versus Martin. Sidebottom versus Prestia. Adams versus Caddy. The Pies would consider themselves just ahead at the top end of the respective midfields, with a fraction more depth too.

Ben Reid will take Jack Riewoldt at one end, Alex Rance wants Darcy Moore at the other. Rance was well beaten by Jacob Weitering last week, and Moore shares similar athletic traits with the Carlton young gun.

Both sides have maligned tall and mid-size forwards, in the shape of Ben Griffiths and Ben Lennon at Richmond, and Jesse White and Chris Mayne at Collingwood. If one of these players can take ten marks and kick a few goals, their team will probably win the game.

Looking for outside-the-square match-winners, Collingwood has a couple of options in Alex Fasolo and Jeremy Howe; Richmond has the freshly-minted small forward lightning trio of Daniel Rioli, Jason Castagna, and Dan Butler.

Richmond kicked a number of crumbing goals last week, sending the ball in high and long to a contested situation, hoping the ball would hit the ground for their smalls to finish the job. Key forwards Jack Riewoldt and Ben Griffiths only kicked one goal between them, but forced enough contests for the crumbers to go to work.

Howe will play a key role with his intercept marking inside defensive fifty, and the more attacks he can repel, preventing those crumbs, will go a long way to setting up the win for the Pies.

Fasolo kicked a match-winning (and career high) six goals in the corresponding fixture last year, and will back himself to offer up a repeat performance against a team that has traditionally had trouble stopping small forwards.

Richmond broke even with the Carlton midfield at clearances last week, while the Pies dominated the Bulldogs in the stoppage situations. If Collingwood gain the ascendency in this area again, which they did early in the JLT Series match when these sides met, it will give them the first chance to kick a winning score, and also prevent the ball from spending too much time in the Tiger forward-line for their smalls to apply pressure and force errors.

Neither side is renowned for polished skills as a unit, with vulnerable members on most lines, and this will be a high intensity, high pressure scrap. Whichever side is able to produce the better skill level under such heat will win the game. Collingwood played too well last week to go down 0-2, and they should just have the edge.

Rabid Richmond fan
Can’t wait for this one, another four points in the bag. Magpies? More like bunnies.

We’ve beaten them three of the last four times, and even the one we lost we actually killed them. Belted them in disposals. Smashed them in hit outs, clearances, contested possession.

The only thing they had in their favour was the free kick count. 26-17! The AFL did that. Likes to have a strong Collingwood early in the season. Bigger crowds, bigger audiences, more money.

The umps tried the same thing in Round 20 last year, but we were too good. In 2015 we beat the Pies by 100 points, and that was us taking it easy.

Scott Pendlebury? Ha. Overrated. Can’t get a touch against the Tiges. He’s only dropped below 20 twice in the last two years. Both against us. No wonder Cotch has a Brownlow and he doesn’t.

Steele Sidebottom? Soft. Jeremy Howe? Once a Melbourne dud, always a Melbourne dud. Alex Fasolo? Only plays one good game a year. Okay, so in 2016 it was against us. He was pretty good last week, he’ll never back that up.

Adam Treloar should have picked Punt Rd instead of joining those ferals, but we’re glad he didn’t. Prestia did. They got the downhill skier. We got the one that understands the concept of team and runs both ways.

Jack will kick six. Who’s going to stop him? Ben Reid? He’ll ping a calf halfway through the second. Dusty kicked four last week, and could have had eight. Almost slotted one from the full-back square. What are the Pies going to do when he puts a barrel through post-height from the centre circle?

Nank the Tank will eat Grundy alive and spit out his man-bun. The only thing worse than Chris Mayne’s hair is his football ability. Tyson Goldsack is still playing AFL! He’d be dropped from our two’s if he could even get a game there.

We’ll be winning alright. Butler five and five. Castagna four and four. Rioli three and three. That’s tackles and goals. Good luck matching that. Most Collingwood players couldn’t hit the side of a barn if they were 20m from it. What are they going to do with a bit of pressure on them? Turnover city.

Richmond by 76 points, and Nathan Buckley to be sacked at half-time.

They’re my Thursday night forecasts. What are yours?