We’ve got another extended week of footy in Round 5 and again there are some challenging decisions to be made – so let’s dive right into The Roar’s AFL expert tips.
The first three matches all look fairly straightforward – Port Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide should comfortably defeat Carlton, Brisbane and Gold Coast respectively.
It gets a little trickier from there on though. Greater Western Sydney will head into a match against Sydney as favourites for the first time, and I will tip them, but the occasion may bring out some fire from the Swans.
After four weeks of tipping against my beloved North Melbourne I can hold out no longer, I’m tipping them to break their duck against Fremantle.
Admittedly, it’s a Perth game and Fremantle have been in good form this past fortnight, but North have been playing good footy too and also I’m a rusted-on Roos tragic.
On the formlines alone, Geelong should be strong favourites against St Kilda, but I reckon the Saints will knock the Cats off the top of the ladder and give them their first loss of the season.
The only concern is that the Saints have kicked more behinds than goals in their last three matches straight – they need to fix that this week.
Hawthorn are being tested for signs of life at the moment and I’m not optimistic we’ll discover any when they host West Coast on Sunday. Eagles by plenty.
Richmond and Melbourne is the match I wrestled with the most this week, tipping the Tigers to remain unbeaten in the end but not with any significant amount of confidence. Jordan Lewis and Max Gawn still being absent was just too much for me to ignore in this one but there’s no doubt it could go either way.
Lastly, Anzac Day is going to be a high-stakes game, and no doubt much more competitive than it was last year. Both teams have had a decent break and that favours Essendon more than it does Collingwood, so Dons for the win.
There are a few decent options for my lock of the week here, I’ll say Port Adelaide to get a home win on Friday night has the lowest margin of error.
Maddy Friend
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, North Melbourne, Geelong, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon
Port should be too strong for Carlton, although if the Blues can put up a good showing as they have in their past few games, it could be close.
The Bulldogs should account for Brisbane, while Adelaide will smash a Gold Coast team missing Steven May and Rory Thompson.
GWS should beat Sydney, but if ever the Swans were going to break their duck, it’ll be in the cringe-worthily named ‘Battle of the Bridge’.
Two weeks ago I would have said that North were shoe-ins to beat Freo, but after Freo’s last two weeks, it shapes as a close game. I’m tipping North, just.
Geelong should get over the top of an inaccurate Saints outfit, while West Coast should easily account for the woeful Hawks (there’s a sentence I didn’t think I’d see myself write a few seasons ago).
Richmond versus Melbourne is the match of the round – Tigers to win, but it should be a cracker of a game.
The Anzac Day match always brings out the best in both teams, and even though the Bombers supposedly hit a wall last week, they’ll bring their best on the big stage.
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Cameron Rose
Port Adelaide, Bulldogs, Adelaide, GWS, Fremantle, St Kilda, West Coast, Melbourne, Essendon
It doesn’t look the hardest round on paper, but that doesn’t mean some surprises don’t lie within. With only one match between sides currently in the eight, there could be some separation to occur on the ladder.
Port will beat Carlton, the Bulldogs will defeat the Lions, and ditto for Adelaide over Gold Coast.
Sydney will get some players back to take on GWS, but will that be enough to turn around their form? It’s doubtful, and we must expect the Giants to continue their winning streak.
North can beat Fremantle given they are knocking on the door for a win, but best stick to the home side in this sort of game.
It gets interesting on Sunday. Geelong are an unconvincing 4-0, and could easily be 0-4 with a marginally harder draw (which could be said for a lot of teams, admittedly).
St Kilda haven’t exactly impressed in their two wins either, but they will win this game with a style of play that will undo the Cats at Etihad, just as they did last season.
I’m going to steal Josh’s lock of the week and make the Saints mine.
Hawthorn are going worse than Fitzroy in their last season, and even West Coast’s MCG record won’t prevent an Eagles win here.
Melbourne is the second upset I’m tipping, based on the Demons having the wood over the Tigers, and Richmond probably being due for a loss. Or, as a man that bleeds black and yellow, maybe I’m just hoping for some reverse psychology? Either way, Dees for mine.
Essendon and Collingwood is probably the hardest match of the round to pick, particularly writing this on Wednesday night for a game on Tuesday! I’ll go with Essendon on the basis of a few more viable and in-form forward options.
| Round 5 | Josh Elliott | Maddy Friend | Tim Lane | Cam Rose | The Crowd |
| PA vs CAR | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| WB vs BRI | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| GCS vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| SYD vs GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| FRE vs NM | NM | NM | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| STK vs GEE | STK | GEE | STK | STK | GEE |
| HAW vs WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| RIC vs MEL | RIC | RIC | RIC | MEL | RIC |
| ESS vs COL | ESS | ESS | COL | ESS | ESS |
| Last week | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Total | 23 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 24 |
PHILMAC
Guest
well the demons' will because of the incoming rain be able to hit tiger smalls and scare em out of winning the hard ball..so tigers are now in trouble as the coming rounds should eliminate them from the 8 once and for all..MYLES MUST BE PLAYED IN THIS SIDE REGARDLESS AS DOES ELLIS AND GARTHWAITE THE BIG ROOKIE DEFENDER..GET IT DONE HARDWICK..ASAP...BLOODY AFL IS STILL TOO RIGGED FOR MY LIKING..HAWKES AND ROOS WILL CATCH UP IN NEXT 5 WEEKS..BRING IT ON,
kavvy
Guest
You're fouth favourite for the flag and every punter and analyst I've heard has you at least that high if not higher (admittedly majority seem to rate Adelaide/GWS higher). If being rated 3-4 best team is 'flying under the radar' then i guess you're right
Kaniel Outis
Guest
Slane: I would love to write such a treatise. I know plenty of people who could be case studies. Picture a sensitive guy with horned rim glasses and bangs, at the Rose Hotel looking gloomy, as he anticipates the coming doom over a pot of beer. Then there is gung ho self employed middle aged bald guy from Boronia psyched up about Richmond's new dawn. Then there is my favorite, the arty intellectual who wears retro 1980's football jerseys, who takes delight in following a team that has been robbed of success for longer than they have been alive.
Nigel Fauntleroy-St John III
Guest
Drake old boy I was speaking Upton Waldorf-Greig and he told me that young Dusty (read: Dustbin) is carrying an injury, which puts the mighty fuchsias in good stead for the battle of Toorak. We will definitely catch those tigers by the tail and then some. Tally ho off we go old chap.
Josh
Expert
Updated Crowd tips, no real surprises.
Slane
Guest
Another great comment. You should write a thesis on the duality of the Richmond supporter.
hal
Guest
Landgraft: Yes I agree, K.B will continue to say we are in decline, while we will continue to fly under the radar.
Landgraft
Guest
Cats'll beat the Saints and continue to not be given any credit for it, the world will just keep on turning.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Michael Barlow agrees with me
true blue
Guest
Fair point Col, it's my political bias I guess. I should have used the Stan Zemanic example. Who came to Melbourne in 2002 and chose Carlton because of our history. That year we finished last.
Kaniel Outis
Guest
It is funny because I have been surrounded by the maudlin Richmond fans, including one who always places $100 on the team Richmond is playing. Some intellectualize their maudlin disposition and indulge in negativity. If Larry David followed AFL he would no doubt be a Richmond fan. I have also come across and worked with the BFS types, who wear their Richmond gear all the time and claim that the premiership is nigh. Yellow and black are the perfect colors as it reflects the duality of the support base; the sunny optimism and the lunar pessimism.
Milo
Roar Rookie
You just wanted to use 'maudlin' on a post. Fair enough. Anyways i wouldn't be surprised if we drop our next ten...
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
True Blue, if you are going to pot people be sure to get your facts right. Both Menzies and Elliott were/are lifelong Carlton supporters. They didn't just jump on board as you have alleged and since when has it been a condition that you need to have a connection to certain suburbs before you can barrack for a team?
Macca
Guest
Yeah lofty the blues could kick 20 goals tomorrow night and win by 10 and Mattyb would only see negatives.
Drake Wrigglesworth-Smith
Guest
Greetings old chap. Looking forward to seeing our boys go out there to catch those Tigers by the tail! Will be a barnstormer I say. We will be the toast of Toorak yet again come Monday night. Our boys will teach that Martin upstart with the neck tattoos and moles on his face a lesson or two about winning with class and dignity. I was at the Club last weekend and Reginald was telling me how this Martin fellow will be getting his million next year. How about that? He'll be the richest man in Broadmeadows what
Lofty
Guest
Correct me if I am wrong but I don't think the got a Friday night game last year so eventually the AFL has to give us one. Every team gets a gig occasionally. As for so called prize recruits, that's the first time I've heard them mentioned in that context. Had more to do with getting other deals done. Are you just making stuff up again? Lets be honest Mattyb. It would not matter what the blues do, you would not be impressed. You just like getting a reaction from blues supporters. You cant help yourself can you?
Angela
Guest
Swans will win this weekend.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - can you point to where anyone has said Palmer and Smedts are prized recruits? And can you explain why a team with 10 or its 22 under 21 would be deemed to be slipping behind if they lose on the road to Port? Especially when you thought the blues wouldn't win a game this year? And weren't you criticising the blues for not going hard enough for youth in the rebuild?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Maybe a lot of Hawks supporters are saddened to see them at the bottom but no one else is
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Yep - rubbish comment - the Swans and the Hawks are exactly where they deserve to be. They don't deserve any respect this season because at the moment they are the two worst teams in the comp. Having said that I have a feeling they may both get their first wins of the season this weekend.