Richmond vs Melbourne: Monday Night Forecast

Welcome to the season’s first Monday Night Forecast, which pits two evenly-matched teams against each other, one – Melbourne – coming off two disappointing losses, with the other – Richmond – exceeding all expectations in its undefeated start to the season.

The Demons got their season off to a flyer, winning their first two games convincingly against St Kilda and Carlton, but were then underwhelming against Geelong and a previously hapless Fremantle, albeit without the talent of suspended duo Jordan Lewis and Jesse Hogan.

Richmond has shown off a new brand of attacking football to start the season, and it has paid dividends, recording easy wins against Carlton and Brisbane, and toughing out victories against West Coast and Collingwood.

This game shapes as a litmus test for both teams. Despite Richmond’s undefeated start to the year, the popular argument is that they’ve yet to beat anyone of note (particularly given they beat West Coast in Melbourne).

Melbourne’s two wins came against battling Carlton and a dogged St Kilda, but its loss to Fremantle and belting by 2016 finalist Geelong have raised questions about the Demons’ bona-fides this season. For both teams, getting a win over a side at a similar stage of development would be a big fillip.

It’s an old football cliche, but the midfield battle in this game will be crucial.

Second-year Melbourne midfielder Clayton Oliver has taken his game to a new level over the first four rounds, having improved his outside ball-winning ability over the summer. He’s the perfect complement to fellow hard-nuts Jack Viney and Nathan Jones.

Fringe players Alex Neal-Bullen and Billy Stretch have established themselves as outside runners, while Christian Petracca can explode away from the contest.

Pitted against them will be Richmond’s reinvigorated midfield, with Dion Prestia’s ability to win contested possessions and Josh Caddy’s toughness around the contest freeing up Dustin Martin to explode away from the middle and burst forward to kick goals.

It’s also given Trent Cotchin more support, and the skipper’s performances over the first four rounds show that, with some genuine support around him, he could return to the form that won him a belated Brownlow in 2012.

The Tigers finally seem to have a formula that suits their personnel. The stop-start, stagnant ball movement of recent seasons has been replaced by speed and verve, exemplified by the ‘mosquito’ fleet of dynamic small forwards in Daniel Rioli, Dan Butler and Jason Castagna.

This has given Richmond new avenues to goal, but has also allowed quick ball movement and short kicking that breaks open other teams’ zones, as was evident in the win against West Coast.

Continuing this theme, the Tigers have replaced the injured Nick Vlaustin with speedster Oleg Markov, in an indication that they will back themselves to beat Melbourne using their pace.

On their side, the Demons regain spearhead Jesse Hogan and will debut former Bomber Michael Hibberd, whose rebound and contested marking ability will be welcome in Melbourne’s defensive half.

They have also opted to replace the dour Tom Bugg and Dean Kent with speedy Jay Kennedy-Harris and tall rookie Tim Smith.

The ruck battle is shaping as an intriguing contest. With Max Gawn out, Melbourne will rely on Jake Spencer and Smith to shoulder the load against Toby Nankervis and Todd Elton.

It won’t set the world on fire, but it will be a yardstick of how the Demons are progressing in their attempts to adjust to life without Gawn.

One of the most salivating battles in this game will be Alex Rance against Jesse Hogan, but Tom McDonald’s ability to curb Jack Riewoldt’s influence at the other end will be crucial.

However, the Demons also need to find a way to keep Richmond’s damaging small forward trio from doing too much damage. Theirs is not a lock-down defence, so there’s a danger of Rioli, Castagna and Butler wreaking havoc.

Melbourne come into this game with a point to prove after two ordinary losses, and the addition of Jesse Hogan will be huge for their confidence and scoring chances.

Richmond will want to remain undefeated and show they’re not flat track bullies, but they have looked shaky during periods of their matches, even if it hasn’t yet cost them a win.

If the Demons can nullify Richmond’s small forwards and speed, it would go a long way to winning the game for Melbourne. I’m tipping the Demons by 10 points.

That’s my Monday Night Forecast. What’s yours?