TELL US: Are Richmond the real deal, and what the hell happened to the Swans?

I think it's fair to say Sydney will be in the cellar for a few years to come

If the Tigers can perform strongly against the Crows this weekend then we will all start to take notice. But at the moment the jury is certainly still out. Their next 4 weeks will be tougher. If they come away with 3 or 4 wins then we should consider them a big threat. If they lose 3 or 4 then they can't really be considered part of the top bracket of teams. For me I think they will finish 5th-8th. They might get a home final against someone like the Eagles or Port and get a long overdue finals win. In general I usually don't like the Tigers but I think it would be great for them and the AFL if they won a final and were a strong performing team.

We (Tigers) really need a serious centre half forward, and we'll have to go to trade or go to the draft for that, unless Mabior Chol can suddenly make the step up, or unless Nankervis goes there with young Soldo in the ruck. That said, this is a really good group, and there is some excellent back up in the twos. We may slide back a bit, but we may also (continue to) defy the pundits and get a few big scalps, starting with the Crows this weekend. If we can win two of our next four, we'd be really well set up for the year.

Good point

0-5 unfortunately

I think Richmond will make the 8, but I think it might be a year or two before they can be a premiership contender. Sydney have been pretty lifeless all over the park, they were particularly poor last weekend as well.

Problem of induction right there, philosopher David Hume would be shaking his head at you! Can you prove to me that the sun will rise tomorrow? No, you just say it's incredibly likely due to past experiences of the sun rising. But you can't be absolutely certain. For the same reason, there is a possibility that the Swans will will all remaining games and slot into the top 4. Unlikely, but possible. You definitely can't say there's no chance!

As to whether the Swans can bounce back in 2017, that depends on the short term form of Parker, Hanners, and to a lesser extent Kennedy. Our contested ball numbers have plummeted and our disposal efficiency (which was never that good even at our peak) is now the worst in the comp. Once Rampe comes back from injury and Aliir gets over his preseason injury, which was a big reason for his poor form in recent weeks, players like Zak Jones and Callum Mills will be given more scope for midfield rotations. Once Heeney gets warmed up he'll also be a huge contributor. That sort of variation and versatility in the midfield is something we simply don't have at the moment. It's those players in the forward line other than Buddy who will also determine whether we jump up the ladder. Reid has been decent, as has Hayward, although he had too much responsibility against GWS. I'll be very interested to see how Brandon Jack goes, because if his NEAFL form over the past two years is reflected in the seniors, he'll be very useful. His older brother could also join him up forward once his injury is sorted. Darcy Cameron is another who could get his debut soon as a tall ruck/fwd. Ultimately, a forward line of Buddy, Tippett, Reid, Heeney, Jack, Jack, Hayward when all fully fit will do just fine!

Except the 2016 Dockers didn't blood 15 debutants in their grand final year and their dropoff year!

Kurt Mutimer is the Eagles' 11th debutant since Simmo started 4 years ago. The Swans have had 15 in the past two years. In round three (or four, can't remember which, it was the one where Freo made 6 changes), the Swans had a younger list than Freo, and were playing more kids under 10 games than Brisbane. If anything, we should be absolutely incredulous as to how the Swans won the minor premiership in 2016 with a similar list position.

The same argument is being made as to why Richmond aren't the real deal and that the Hawks are on the rise...both beat West Coast in Melbourne

I don't really think the Hawks will make the 8, as much as I would like them too. They might pick up a few wins and points but they will struggle with their percentage which is shot. Swans, they are a tough one, I sympathise given their injuries etc... but I made a comment on another post that they are resembling the 2016 Dockers in a lot of ways... I don't think they'll get out of the bottom 4 Tigers, I think they'll be caught out by mid season... like North last year and Collingwood a couple of seasons ago

It was 2001, and they didn't make the finals again until 2013!

And the big game too St Kilda & Hawthorn in Tasmania i must admit 1 win doesn't mean too much at all and a prediction Sydney will "roar" up the charts? At 5-0 so far not an ideal start?

So by your definition, the Bulldogs aren't the real deal either- only won finals last year. What a team achieved in years gone by becomes irrelevant as to wether or not they are the real deal this year.

No they aren't they are a 1-4 team who have spent the majority of the season looking old, slow and clueless.

When was the last time Richmond won a final? That's the last time Richmond were the "real deal" - and it wasn't yesterday. A team that is the real deal backs up and wins finals in consecutive years. Can you name the last time Richmond did that? I doubt it. It's not in living memory!

A scenario I ponder, out of the teams not in the current top 8 I suspect only Hawks and Sydney to make a late charge up the ladder, if they do find themselves in contention for a top 8 spot, which current teams would make way for them?

Hawks look back to me. Let's give them more credit as they are a champion team.

Yep. Totally agree that it'll be impossible for the Tigers to beat the Hawks or Swans in the finals considering both the Hawks and Swans won't make the 8 this year.