With about a minute to go in the first half of the Gold Coast’s Round 6 clash against North Melbourne on Saturday night, the Channel Seven commentary team turned their attention to the impressive recent form of Gary Ablett.
Ablett had, to that point in the match, already gathered 22 possessions.
They discussed how Ablett had clearly been ‘stung’ into action by media criticism after his relatively quiet 16-possession game in the Suns’ heavy loss to the Giants in Round 2.
The following are a selection of comments from the Channel Seven team during that exchange.
Basil Zempilas: “Lingy, do you feel like he was stung by that criticism because his response has been brilliant?”
Cameron Ling: “Yeah, it’s been red hot.
Luke Darcy: “He has responded like an out and out champion”
The overarching theme of this particular narrative sits comfortably with the modern day sports commentator who see the role they play as central to the happenings on and off field. One where their views and opinions are extremely valued and drive actions in players, coaches and administrators.
It is true that from Round 3 Ablett has put together four straight games with more than 30 possessions in an impressive run of form. What this isn’t though is a ‘stick it up them’ response from Ablett, it’s just a professional footballer doing what he has done for the best part of his career.
Since his transfer to the Suns in 2011, Ablett has averaged more than 30 possessions a game, in fact over this period, 55 per cent of his games have resulted in greater than 30 possessions. He has also pulled together streaks of games, of 30 or more possessions, that have been at least equal in length to the current one on six occasions.
As can be seen Ablett’s current output levels are no aberration he has simply returned to his average performance standard – one that is just by all possible measures incredibly high.
Mathematicians call this ‘mean reversion’ the theory that suggests over time performance levels move back towards the mean or average
John Newcombe the former champion Australian tennis player turned commentator, but one schooled in a different era to Ling and Darcy, regularly touches upon this concept of mean reversion in his commentary.
Newcombe notes how over the course of a five-set match a player can often raise performance levels to above their usual standard but if their opponent can hang in through this period and not give up the match, that sure enough that players performance levels will drop back to their normal levels and their opponent will have a chance to get back in the game.
There is no doubt that Gary Ablett will go on racking up 30 possession games for the Suns as he enters the twilight of an exceptional career.
What isn’t clear though is if this was one off by the Channel Seven commentary team, or will they soon be taking credit for other normal and expected performance levels at the footy like sauce served on meat pies or queues at the bar at half time?
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
(dave: SPOT ON!) Author, you've hit on something that amazes me every time I hear it, particularly from ex-players in the booth who should know better. When they tell us in the post-game interviews that they were just focused on the guys in the locker room, they mean it. There's a trend in the American NBA these days where the star players make a public announcement about how they've turned off their social media and news links for the duration of the playoffs...but the truth is, 90% don't listen to that stuff with any level of engagement anyway. So media, feel free to write your honest , non-libelous opinions to your heart's content: you're not going to affect the outcome of the next game. Sorry.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
(dave: SPOT ON!) Author, you've hit on something that amazes me every time I hear it, particularly from ex-players in the booth who should know better. When they tell us in the post-game interviews that they were just focused on the guys in the locker room, they mean it. There's a trend in the American NBA these days where the star players make a public announcement about how they've turned off their social media and news links for the duration of the playoffs...but the truth is, 90% don't listen to that stuff with any level of engagement anyway. So media, feel free to write your honest , non-libelous opinions to your heart's content: you're not going to affect the outcome of the next game. Sorry.
dave
Guest
You kind of feel the next goal is critical.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
BT was going ballistic. Also the umps were right on board awarding dodgy frees and ignoring a couple of big 90s/00s shoves in the back from the tomahawk. At one point I thought zen Lethal was going to revoke his 32 year vow of nonviolence and give BT one.
peter wolf
Guest
Simoc listening and watching the Geelong vs Collingwood game up until the last quarter all i could hear was Brian Taylor carrying on how The Cats are gr8 finisher's in the last quarters of their previous games oh gee they're getting closer and closer watch out Pies it just went on and on, i think sometimes these so called commentators and experts which i guess they are, are so wrapped up in their own little ego but forget to commentate the game but i guess a sense of humour doesn't go astray? and gee at times they do talk a lot of B.S.
I ate pies
Guest
Basil is comfortably the worst commentator around at the moment. Even worse than BT. He has zero personality and knows nothing about any player who isn't from Western Australia. I can't fathom how he even got a job as a commentator.
Andrew Young
Roar Guru
Exactly! Take, for example the last quarter on Saturday night. They make assertions such as "that's the sealer, there is no way back for Gold Coast now!" Followed up by a Gold Coast goal, and we were immediately told that there was still time, still hope! Watching on mute is becoming a good option. It is the same with the cricket commentary as well.
Callen
Guest
All the commentators need to do really, is describe the game unfolding in front of them in a clear and informative manner. It seems like Wayne Carey, Cameron Ling, Matthew Richardson and Brian Taylor have a clause in their contract where at least every match, they need to be able to re-live their own glory days by comparing themselves to a current player, showing they can still kick a goal or re-living a personal achievement from their own career.
mdso
Guest
I wish the commentator's would just commentate, instead of proffering their opinion ABOUT ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING. I think they like the sound of their own voices.
bagc
Guest
Agree, Andrew. It seems like the ex-players turned commentators can bring a bit of insight for a couple of seasons and then they just start making things up and judging current players by different standards, or just echoing the often repeated lines from the main stream media / AFL.
Simoc
Guest
Yes , now we have these idiots "the games there for the taking" with Geelong needing just 5 goals to win in the last six minutes. Who are they trying to kid? And having seen Basil socially I doubt if a bigger ego exists when he is around his faithful. Naturally they would like to believe they set the agenda. Our Canberra journos have a similar problem. Trying to keep inflated egos in check.
XI
Roar Guru
I wouldn't be surprised if that's the reason why they try to hype up every moment. They're thinking of the montages and highlight packages and want to make sure that they're identifiable. More about their own glory than the glory of the contest.
Cat
Roar Guru
It's not just age, Ablett is also coming off back-to-back injuries and missing a ton of time in the last two years. Everyone has been patient with Fyfe's form coming off similar layoff but not Ablett.
Andrew Young
Roar Guru
It's true- less and less do we have commentators who are there to evaluate and inform, rather, they want to leave their own stamp and impression. The game is about those on the field.
Swampy
Guest
Older players merely require more time to 'get going' in a season. This has been repeated for as long as sport has been played. 'Match Fitness'. Ablett, Pendlebury and any other elder statesman or player that has been away from the game with a lengthy injury layoff you care to name rarely peak in rounds 1 or 2. For the same reason I would expect the Essendon drug squad to show this much later in the season as they have been away from the game for much longer. I doubt the media can drive someone to be better in a week.
Gr8tWeStr
Guest
Applying the 'mean reversion' theory, I expect they will continue to over state their importance and impact. For me, its become pretty standard practice for main stream media.
Jack Dyer
Roar Rookie
Mastermind is/was correct - a small type on my behalf fixed up by the team at The Roar. Thanks MM.
GJ
Guest
Mike Sheehan was banging on about it on radio this morning as well with the opinion that the media were responsible for his change/improvement in form. I doubt Gary would privately agree with any of them.
GJ
Guest
You probably need to read it again
Gecko
Guest
Interesting theory posed by Newcombe. Makes sense. Probably applies not just across all sports but across all professions!