State of Origin is often a close affair and despite Queensland’s dominance over ten of the past 11 years, there have only been a handful of games with blowout scorelines.
Out of the 33 Origin matches since Queensland’s dominance began 15 of them have been decided by less than a converted try and all bar seven have been decided by 12 points or less.
In close affairs, poor discipline is a killer especially at Origin level when the standard of play is so high. Silly penalties or dropped balls can really cost your team momentum which can be so hard to regain.
In the close games just one penalty for the opposition or a dropped ball in your own 20 can make all the difference. Unless the Blues players can arrest their poor discipline at club level they will be staring down the barrel of another series defeat.
When comparing the two selected teams for Origin, the Queensland players have shown far more discipline and control in 2017 than their NSW counterparts.
When it comes to penalties the Blues players have given away a staggering 113 penalties compared to the Maroons’ 65. And they also lose the error count by 135 to 107. When taken over 11 rounds that’s about ten penalties conceded to six and 12 errors to ten each and every game.
Granted there are less penalties given away in Origin but even a two-penalty and two-error advantage would give the Maroons and extra four sets of six often in good field position. Good club teams may be able to defend that at NRL level but with the best of the best playing in Origin you only need to give your opposition a sniff for them to ram home the advantage.
Other than Will Chambers – who has conceded nine penalties in 2017 – all the other Maroons players have conceded six penalties or fewer this season. The Blues have seven players to have conceded more than six penalties this season with James Maloney leading the way.
He has an astonishing 22 penalties conceded at the rate of two penalties every time he laces up the boots.
Maloney’s Sharks teammates may have been able to soak up the pressure against the likes of the Panthers, Tigers and Knights but his Blues teammates will be hoping he doesn’t pile extra pressure on them with Cam Smith, Cooper Cronk and co. ready to exploit the slightest advantage.
Even if Maloney is on his best behaviour during Origin the Blues players have still conceded far more penalties per game this season.
When it comes to the error count both teams have attacking players who will need to find the balance between creating opportunities and gifting the opposition-field position through loose errors.
Each team has five players who made ten or more errors this year with Jack Bird and Anthony Milford the worst offenders with 17 each. As you read through the list of high error makers they are also exciting game breakers who can bust open a game.
For the Blues: Tedesco, Maloney, Fifita, Graham and Bird.
For the Maroons: Oates, Chambers, Milford, Gillett and Morgan.
For these players finding the right balance and choosing the time and place to take risks could be the difference between a breathtaking try or a crucial error handing the advantage to the opposition.
Either way possession is king in Origin and if the opening 11 rounds of the NRL are anything to go by Queensland will enjoy a distinct advantage and be lifting the Origin Shield once again this winter.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Michael, excellent article mate. I thought NSW where the best team in Game 1 last year and the best to HT in Game 2 and then won game 3, but lost the series because of what you just said: The key game was game 2 at Suncorp and NSW lost the penalty count 7 - 5 and made 10 errors to Qlds 5. Completions were only 70% for NSW while the Maroons completed at 91% to clinch the series. Laurie Daley is very conscious of these figures and the one thing that stands out in his 17 is the huge number of genuine leaders.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
This has been an argument of mine for a long time . NSW have quite often done enough to win and have certainly been in the contest with ten to go , and then , step up Greg bird or Gallen and give away a stupid stupid penalty in order to try to demonstrate some kind of Origin Mongrel by taking it too far . The other issue with NSW can be a lack of patience, trying to push a pass that was never on Etc . They have to be more disciplined and need to get their head around the 80 minutes and then they might win . PS ..I'd like to watch the last ten minutes of each game for the last ten years and see who gives away penalties in that period.
Griffo
Guest
Errors are an interesting stat but depending on where they occur and in what moment they may be more or less costly. I would be guessing that backs tend to make more errors than forwards because they may be pushing for something extra to make something happen in attack. Much of what a forward does is a bit more straight forward and so their errors are more likely to be costly.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Yeah I might have been a little selective there Renegade. I still think it could cost the Blues though.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Is that the same Cooper Cronk and Cam Smith that couldn't cross the line when Maloney and his teams soaked up the pressure down in Melbourne?? "Panthers, Tigers and Knights" ... HA good one.
kk
Roar Pro
Top call MK. I rated O1: 2017 at NSW 14305 and Q'land 14145 so that your penalty appraisal is just as important as the selection factor. The referees will probably not be announced until next week. It would be interesting to know which referees penalise Maloney most and identify category infringement. If "Bench Strength" counts for anything the Blues are in for a good night. I just hope Sterlo guides Laurie how and when to use them. NSW by 7.
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Nah Maloney, Fifi and Graham concede only when his team needs it. Him and Fifi concede less than 1 pen a game in Origin and Finals. Not really a concern.