Adelaide vs St Kilda: Friday Night Forecast

A huge game in the context of the AFL season looms, as the freshened up St Kilda Saints journey west to face the might of the Adelaide Crows.

Stylistically, this match up has the potential to melt our faces clean off.

But before we get to the Xs and Os, a word on the stakes of this game because they are immense.

St Kilda find themselves in 11th spot with a 0.500 record and a percentage of practically 100 per cent. They’ve split the ledger at home (3-3) and away (2-2) and other than a victory on Friday night in Round 7 against the GWS Giants are yet to beat a team with a positive win-loss record.

They could be this year’s yard stick.

More critically, the Saints limped into their Round 11 bye with two losses of 50 and 40 points against Sydney and the Western Bulldogs, respectively. For a team that many expected to surge into finals calculations this season, Friday night looms as a solid test of where St Kilda sit in the pecking order.

As to the battle for finals spots, St Kilda can leap into the eight with victory, displacing the Fremantle Dockers who’ve got six wins but a poor percentage.

The Saints will likely still end the round outside of the eight seed though, unless Fremantle lose to the Lions and Melbourne and Collingwood draw on Queen’s Birthday Monday. Indeed, the winner of that particular game will end the round as high as sixth, given the Western Bulldogs’ defeat last night and the poor percentage of West Coast in seventh. That would require a Fremantle loss. If Fremantle were to win, they will jump up to sixth, Collingwood or Melbourne would end up seventh, the Dogs in eighth, and West Coast would slip to ninth.

So while the Saints probably don’t get the instant gratification of a finals seeding come the end of the round in the case of a win, they gain comfort knowing they remain within spitting distance of eighth spot on the ladder.

For the Crows, pending the results of the Giants versus Carlton Giants-lite game on Sunday, Friday night could see the Crows end the round on top of the ladder.

That’s symbolic; the more pertinent concern is maintaining their one-game gap over the fourth and fifth placed Richmond and Port Adelaide (the latter having a game in hand) heading into their week of rest.

In summary, the upside for the winner of this game is significant, while the downside for the loser could be season defining. We like games like this, because they make our most delectable a little more spicy.

Where this match-up really satisfies though is in the substance. Both Adelaide and St Kilda have a bias for action-oriented, up-tempo football, and care more about scoring than stopping the opposition. The Crows have been able to make this work for them in 2017, while the Saints’ misfiring forward line has hamstrung them as they continue along their development path.

The Saints like to play a bit more kick-mark than Adelaide, averaging 85.4 field marks per game to 69.3 for the Crows. It manifests in a slightly slower pace: the average St Kilda game involves 101.9 inside 50s (ranked 15th), compared to 111.3 inside 50s (ranked first) for an average Adelaide game.

St Kilda are much cleaner with the ball too; so far this year the Saints have averaged 5.9 disposals per turnover, compared to 5.4 for the Crows. Over the course of a game, that translates to about six extra turnovers, which is six extra opportunities for the opposition to score.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

It means this game could play out like a chess match, with the Crows keen to push the pace and the Saints more content with keeping control of the ball via shorter kicks. Interestingly, despite their faster pace, the Crows average an extra six minutes of possession per game than the Saints.

In spite of it all, St Kilda are a lesser offensive side than they were last year. Their 89.2 points per game is a shade below the AFL average through 11 rounds (91.9 points per game), and a modest half a point improvement on their 2016 mark. However, the competition as a whole is scoring a little more than last season, meaning in a relative sense St Kilda have gone backwards. We don’t need to revisit Adelaide’s potency.

The Saints are still tinkering with their forward line mix, as we can see from this week’s changes. Josh Bruce returns to the starting forward line, meaning St Kilda are rolling with their three-tall line-up (sans Nick Riewoldt) for just the third time this year. Also rejoining the team are Nathan Wright and Jimmy Webster, with Shane Savage, Darren Minchington and Daniel McKenzie all omitted.

Adelaide have also made an unforced change, with David Mackay making way for Riley Knight as one of the Crows’ outside midfielder fleet. Defender Luke Brown misses the game with a fractured cheekbone, with debutant Jono Beech added to the line-up.

Beech’s bio suggests he’s a utility forward-midfielder, suggesting Andy Otten, who has been Mr Fix-It for coach Don Pyke in 2017, will head to the back line to take one of St Kilda’s tall trio.

It looms as a really interesting stylistic match-up. St Kilda have the tools to keep the ball out of Adelaide’s hands, but given the Crows score about 20 per cent more than the league average per minute of possession it’s hard to see that being a particularly useful outcome. The Saints will need to rely on a comprehensive midfield victory, such as the one Melbourne engineered via tight checking and volume of numbers at the ball in Round 8.

While I’m looking forward to this game, there is no way to rationally tip anything but an Adelaide victory. Outside of that blip, the Crows have been volcanic at home: 129.8 points for (ranked first for teams on their home ground), 78.6 points against (ranked second) for a percentage of 165 per cent.

St Kilda have performed better in terms of percentage away from Docklands, but score just 86.5 points per game outside of Etihad this year.

So it’s the Crows for me, in what looms as an entertaining game that doubles as a significant marker of what’s been and what’s to come in season 2017.

Adelaide by six goals – a margin that’s more likely to be larger than smaller if you put a gun to my head.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?