The Socceroos got the win and the three points against Saudi Arabia in Adelaide a couple of weeks ago but, in terms of World Cup qualification, Japan’s 1-1 with Iraq in Tehran was just as important.
With two games to go, Japan have the lead with 17 points with Saudi Arabia and Australia now level pegging on 16 points, with the Saudis marginally ahead on goal difference.
There are two automatic qualifying spots up for grabs but obviously three into two doesn’t go, so what chance are the Socceroos of finishing in the top two and avoiding some home-and-away sudden death games?
Well, the first thing to remember is destiny is in their hands. If they win their remaining two qualifying games, they are in. The last game at home against Thailand should lead to a win but their next qualifying game is critical. On 31st August, the Socceroos take on Japan away at Saitama.
Australia’s last win against Japan in Japan was way back in 1969. Since 2000, they have played seven times away for four losses and three draws. So, it will be almost 50 years between if they do get the win. A draw would be an ok result, but a loss would likely send Australia to playoffs.
Saudi Arabia have the United Arab Emirates away at the end of August and then have Japan at home on the fifth September. For the UAE, it’s now mathematically impossible to grab third spot so you would think that Saudi Arabia would grab the three points in that game. If Australia can get the draw against Japan, Saudi Arabia would sit in first place one point ahead of Japan and two points ahead of Australia.
Australia would need to win against Thailand to then be assured of a spot as the other two teams play in the last round.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
A loss to Japan however would then require a big win against Thailand and a reliance on Japan to beat Saudi Arabia away, with Japan already assured of qualification if they beat Australia. The Japanese could be forgiven for resting some players in that scenarios so it seems like an Australian loss to Japan in August will have the Socceroos moving into a third place playoff.
The Socceroos’ likely Asian play off opponent would be Uzbekistan, although it could easily be South Korea. Australia would be hoping for the Uzbeks, who the Socceroos have played three times for three wins.
Despite a win against South Korea in the Asian Cup Final, a playoff between Australia and South Korea would be a toss up with both teams previously expected to qualify.
A win in the Asian qualifying fourth rounds would see a playoff against the fourth placed CONCACAF team which is shaping up to be Panama or Honduras. Both teams are close to unknowns for Australia and tough away locations will make qualification tight.
I think the Socceroos will take a point against Japan, win against Thailand and grab one of the two automatic spots for Russia. A loss to Japan would make it very difficult for Australia to qualify.
The Confederations Cup may actually save their campaign, with the squad to get some much needed match practice leading to probably the most important two games of the players’ careers.
Ben of Phnom Penh
Roar Guru
Moot means debatable, arguable. As we don't know who was actually available & willing (as we didn't ask) the discussion as to who would have been suitable can go on infinitum. That may be why Waz never answered your question.
bobbym
Guest
This team is so slow out of the blocks if they were a horse they'd be pet meat
Mark
Guest
I don't think it's moot at all. When considering whether to organize a friendly or not I would think one of the first things that would be considered is which other nations are available and willing to play. I don't think Singapore would have provided a really meaningful hit out. Philippines only marginally more so. Jordan or Oman may have been worthwhile, but one has to wonder if there would be any interest from their side in traveling so far for a friendly. They would also have asked us to cover the costs of a match, and if one was to be played in Thailand, there would be zero chance of making any of that money back.
Chris
Guest
Lucy Zelic gives me a headache every time she speaks
Stevo
Roar Rookie
Enough gas bagging already troops! Time focus on the coming game in the wee hours. Chile has beaten Cameroon 2:0 with Vidal and Vargas scoring. Bring on the Germans and let's watch the Roos give those guys a footballing lesson. In Ange we trust ... and Juric, Timmy, Tommy, Mooysie, etc :)
Ben of Phnom Penh
Roar Guru
If a friendly was sought then Philippines or Singapore to play us wherever we were training may have been a decent choice. Most of the teams still vying for 2019 AFC Cup Qualification didn't have games over that period as the weakest teams were having a play-off round. They'd provide a decent hit-out without overly stretching the squad. Oman & Jordan were also free to both play & travel however their style of play is rather different to the Thais'. A friendly wasn't sought though so it is somewhat moot discussing opposition as the market was never tested.
Fadida
Guest
Ha! Nice one Fuss, though the official term is "Fifa playstation" I believe. The tactics are wrong. If you had any tactical insight you'd recognise that, rather than blindly following, though you do have previous with Holger. For the record, as I have said before, Ange is far from useles, but he has lost his way at the moment.
Mark
Guest
I may be wrong, but I thought Fox only buy the rights to broadcast the Socceroos qualifiers, not all qualifiers
Mark
Guest
I ask again: Who should we have played, and where? You didn't answer last time I asked you to back up your suggestion that they should have played a friendly. Let's see if you do this time. This may be news to you, but other Confederations had qualifiers on during that period too. I'm interested to know what opposition you would have had us play and where in the world you would have had us travel a few days before a crucial qualifier.
pacman
Guest
Waz, you say "cool". You do realize that summer in Russia occurs in June, July and August? Apparently not very cool, lol!
Andre Leslie
Roar Guru
Good analysis. It sure is getting to the business end of proceedings now in the qualifiers. It's a shame we can't watch more Asian qualifiers that don't feature Australia on the pitch. Iraq v Japan in Tehran would have been fascinating. Or am I missing something on Fox Sports?
Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
Yes Nemesis, Lucy Zelic, urged Ange to give Fad a call, even begged him off air. :) Nonetheless, Ange, will not be deterred no matter what and will press on with his plan to play with 3 at the back and attack an inferior Germany.. Good luck to the boys on Tuesday. I hope we can show the world we are no mugs or a third rate football nation and surprise a few critics around the world and here back home (me being one, with egg on my face after Tuesday). Good luck Ange, coaching staff, and the players.
Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
Party pooper ;)
Nemesis
Guest
Thanks for the link, Catlex. Good to hear The Boss give his insights. I've heard reports, Lucy Zelic had intended to interview Fadida to get the best information about tactics, but his internet was busy playing FIFA games. Never mind, we probably know what he thinks: Ange is useless, tactics are wrong, if we play 4 at the back all the players will pass with 100% efficiency.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Confidence comes from results, results comes via performances, performances come via squad/team selection. TV interviews? They're just propaganda for the gullible masses.
Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/video/969905731641/EXCLUSIVE-Ange-Postecoglou-interview Nice little interview with Ange. I hope this gives you a little bit more confidence going into Tuesday's game.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Pretty cool for the players if they end up going twice in 12 months though hey ...
Waz
Roar Rookie
Given a choice I recon the FFA would be happy to roll the dice on that scenario, loads of $$$$$
Swanny
Guest
im thinking the Roos will finish third and we can look forward to some 2 legged playoffs. I'm thinking 80000 in Sydney for the second leg and juric scored the winner in a penalty shootout ,, ??
Bob
Guest
I see what you did there you clever little man. you must be a hoot at parties.