Sydney vs Essendon: Friday Night Forecast

A month ago, this looked like a Friday fizzer. After Essendon’s consolidation and Sydney’s return to form, it’s now a game for a spot in the top eight – at least temporarily.

We’ve talked about high leverage football a lot in the past few weeks; the games that in an even season result in big shifts in expected ladder positions. Tonight, the Swans and Dons play one of those games.

Essendon are in eighth spot on the ladder with the best percentage (102.3 per cent) of the four 6-6 teams after 13 rounds. Sydney find themselves one game back on 5-7, but with a superior percentage (105.5 per cent). It means the winner with end the night in eighth spot.

Sydney could end the night in eighth spot, after starting the season on a six-game losing streak and looking lethargic and tired and hopeless. This season is awesome.

It would likely be a temporary position for the Swans though, given three teams below them (the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Fremantle) all have opportunities to move to seven wins. All three have interesting match ups this weekend where wins are not a given (or in the case of Fremantle not expected). It’s possible the Swans finish the round in eighth spot – with a losing record, to boot.

On the flip side, Essendon have a golden opportunity to build a miniature barrier between their spot in the eight and some of the chasing pack. Right now, seven teams are within one win of the Bombers, every one of which bar Fremantle, Carlton and Gold Coast with a close enough percentage that they could overtake Essendon with a decent sized win.

The leverage is huge, both mechanically and in a narrative sense. The flames will fly all over if the Swans somehow manage to end Round 14 inside the eight after their start to the season. By contrast, Essendon’s qualitative case for finals – that they’re good enough – would be boosted immensely.

Before we get there, football needs to happen. Stylistically, this is a fascinating match up: the go-fast Sydney Swans against the go-slow Essendon Bombers.

We talked about the Bombers a few weeks ago, noting their penchant for the kick-mark game was stronger than any team in the league. The Dons take 94.8 field marks per game, ranked second behind Carlton (95 flat), and record a differential of +15.4 per game (third behind Carlton and Collingwood on +19.9 and +15.7, respectively).

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

While they’ve tried to play ball control, it hasn’t always come off. Essendon more or less break even on time in possession, controlling the ball around a minute less than their opponents on average. In wins, this skyrockets to 6.5 minutes of extra possession per game, while in losses it plummets to 8.5 minutes of less possession.

Sydney, in stark contrast, take just 75.7 field marks per game, ranked 13th. The Swans don’t play the outside game, with a field mark differential of -10.8 per game – the third lowest figure in the competition. However it yields a largely similar outcome for the Swans from the perspective of ball control: Sydney average 2.5 minutes less possession than their opponents on the year, +6.4 minutes in wins, and -8.9 minutes in losses.

On this alone, this game projects as an intriguing stylistic match up. Essendon like to control the pace of play, moving from slow to fast as the situation dictates. While they’ve clearly shown a preference to careful ball movement, when an overlap presents there are few teams that pull the trigger as quickly as the Dons.

Sydney don’t wait. They will as they always do try and move from their half of the ground to the other as quickly as possible, and swiftly press up to lock the ball inside 50. That’s if Lance Franklin hasn’t already kicked a goal from just outside the centre square on the left forward flank.

Both teams have made two changes, one forced and the other unforced. Sydney lose the rising Zak Jones to suspension and have omitted Harry Marsh, bringing in youngsters Lewis Melican and Oliver Florent.

Essendon key forward Cale Hooker is out with a hand injury, while David Myers has been omitted; in their place come Shaun McKernan and Kyle Langford. McKernan’s selection means both teams will go to market with two ruckmen – a rare sighting worthy of capturing in this year’s football almanac.

For me, the winner comes down to two somewhat discrete issues. First, is Sydney’s return to form real? As we noted last Wednesday, while the Swans have performed well over the past seven weeks in moving from an 0-6 record to 5-7, they’ve done so against a remarkably soft slate of opponents.

It’s easy to look clean in congestion and take plenty of intercept marks against teams ranked 18th, 17th (admittedly the Swans lost to the Hawks) and 16th on the ladder, and whatever it is the Dogs have become over the past two months.

Last weekend’s win against Richmond was full of merit, particularly given it was at the MCG, and that the Swans reeled in a 25 point half time deficit by grinding. Still, it’s hard to tell given the ride Sydney has inflicted upon us this year.

(AAP Image/David Moir)

The second matter is whether Essendon are able to get their game going on the small, round SCG. The kick-mark game works best on grounds that have ample space to work in, and with which to create angles of attack. The SCG is more suited to the fast pace style the Swans like to play, and which the Dons can expound in spurts. We will know early, because if it fails it is likely to fail spectacularly.

When Plan A fails for Essendon, their midfield has proven to be unreliable given its relative youth and inexperience. Sydney, despite their overall youth, are the opposite. If Sydney can close Essendon’s space, they have the midfield to lay the smack down and add a few points to their percentage.

From an individual matchup perspective, Michael Hurley versus Lance Franklin looms as a slightly-less-exciting-but-still-exciting redux of last weekend’s fireworks between Franklin and Richmond’s Alex Rance. I hope Hurley is given the task both up the ground and inside 50.

Down the other end, Joe Daniher will have both Heath Grundy and Dane Rampe to contend with, the latter likely to be matched up on Essendon’s resting ruckman and tasked with cutting off Daniher’s attack at the ball. If only we had forward 50 cameras available.

Essendon could win both of these matchups, and I’d still be pretty confident the Swans have this in hand. I don’t like the way the Dons game plan meshes with Sydney’s preferences and home ground, and I’m willing to give Sydney a teensy bit of credit for their recent winning streak. So it’s the Swans for me, by near enough to five goals.

That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?