St Kilda at the crossroads

St Kilda are at an uneasy precipice, in the midst of a flat-lining rebuild, and potentially destined for an extended run of mid-table mediocrity.

Two weeks ago it was all sunshine and lollipops, four wins in a row for the first time in six years, topped off by an extraordinary victory over Richmond, running up an 82-point lead in one half of blitzkrieg football.

Results like that are almost always anomalous, a once-in-a-decade feat where the Saints were white-hot and the Tigers were ice-cold. It was Harlem Globetrotters vs Washington Generals on an AFL field.

St Kilda’s other three wins in that run of four were against North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Fremantle, clearly three of the worst five teams in the league, and none of those victories were without their scares either.

The Saints finished ninth with 12 wins last year, after finishing 14th with six wins in 2015, and 18th with four wins in 2014, coach Alan Richardson’s first season. The build was steady, with the promise of more to come. Finals were one benchmark for 2017, but improving more than the sides below them was the other.

Occupying the four spots below St Kilda in 2016 were Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood and Richmond.

Three of those teams have flown by the Saints and are all legitimate top four and potentially premiership threats. St Kilda have now dropped to 11th after two significant losses.

The size of too many of their defeats have been surely too high for a coach that craves honesty.

Sydney has beaten them twice by a combined 92 points. Essendon manhandled them by 61 points. Adelaide tuned them up by 57 points. The Western Bulldogs gave them a touch up by 40, and we know the struggles they themselves have had all year. Geelong took care of them by 38 points. Going back to Round 1, Melbourne beat the Saints by an even 30 points.

That’s seven games being beaten by five goals or more. The gap between their best and worst is still too great.

(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)

The thing is, there have been plenty of positives. Seb Ross, Dylan Roberton and Jack Billings have taken their games to all new heights, and will be contenders for positions in the All-Australian squad of 40 at a minimum. Jack Steele has been a fine addition, adding yeast to the midfield mix.

Jake Carlisle has played some fantastic football in his return from a year out of the game, probably providing a better return than general expectation had him pegged for. Nathan Brown has delivered exactly what it says on the label in his first year at the club. Billy Longer is also having a career best season. Jade Gresham has improved beyond doubt.

That’s over a third of the team that has measurably improved the side and/or gone forward, so why haven’t St Kilda?

A number of players have been dropped this year, including many that are at a point in their careers where it shouldn’t be happening.

Does the game mean enough to Shane Savage? His skills are sorely needed at AFL level all of the time, not in between stints of VFL. Blake Acres has more talent than most and is the perfect size for today’s game. Luke Dunstan had one of the best games of his career against Sydney on the weekend, after getting another chance.

Jack Steven is a three-time best-and-fairest winner, but is too inconsistent for a player of his standing, age and experience.

Josh Bruce has responded to his mid-season dropping with a solid block of good form. Tim Membrey was close to some dew-kicking too, but still seems to cherry-pick against the lower tier clubs.

Paddy McCartin is a problem, thanks to his concussion history. As sad as it is for the human being in question, from a list management perspective he’s a liability at the present time. The investment was high, the return has been low. Time is still on his side. His medical history is not.

The cloud over Nick Riewoldt’s future is hanging over the club too.

Does he play on next year, and once again leave the Saints in some tricky positions with four key forwards to manage through the best 22? Josh Battle will need more opportunities as well. Forward pressure has been king this year. McCartin can’t apply it. Membrey won’t. Riewoldt is often too hobbled or exhausted.

What if Riewoldt is retired, and McCartin’s struggles continue in 2018, and Bruce and Membrey have form issues again? It’s a likely scenario. Will St Kilda’s forward-line be too dysfunctional to rise above a mid-table finish once more?

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Leigh Montagna may also be seeking another contract, which based on form alone is warranted. But do the Saints need to move past this great servant?

North Melbourne lost their last five games in 2016, amidst the speculation and angst surrounding the public retiring of Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo, Drew Petrie and Michael Firrito, mostly against their will. The Roos currently sit in 17th this year.

St Kilda’s handling of Riewoldt and Montagna must be viewed in this light, albeit the circumstances are different and slightly more favourable to the club this time around.

Can Alan Richardson coach? It’s a question that can’t yet be answered, four years in. As a public speaker he doesn’t inspire. He was long renowned around the AFL as a superb developer of young talent before becoming the senior coach at the Saints.

As we saw with Brendan McCartney at the Dogs and Mark Neeld at Melbourne, men with similar reputations, sometimes that doesn’t translate to delivering in the senior role.

St Kilda are approaching the crossroads alright, as a club, and as individuals within it. They’ll likely have two picks in the top 10 this year, and it will be fascinating to see what they do with them. They were linked to Nat Fyfe in the early part of this season, and Josh Kelly is the apple in many eyes.

Will they trade hard for a big gun, to try and jump into the upper echelon next season, or hit the draft again with those valuable top picks, and wait a year before making free agency waves?

If GWS are the Ferrari of the competition, St Kilda are a car that’s engine has stalled. Question marks hover over older and younger players, the coach, and what the list management strategy will be.

Two weeks is a long time in football, and if the Saints don’t get their balance right, the next two years could seem like an eternity.