After a couple of controversial, polarising articles about Wallabies selection, it might pay for all of us to take a break and understand why it is such an emotive topic.
» WESTERN FORCE AXED FROM SUPER RUGBY
At this point, I leave my own West Coast ‘Royal Blue’ bias at the door and attempt to explain everyone else’s various vested interests.
Tribalism
At our DNA’s core, we are tribal animals. To misquote the Quran: first my brother, then my cousin, then my village. Religious overtones aside, this is recognition of obvious human nature.
In rugby speak – my local club, my Super Rugby franchise, my country, my hemisphere. If my Super Rugby team doesn’t make the finals, I will support the next one closest to me or my heart – but never the Waratahs.
SANZAAR have tapped into this and I believe that this is the thinking behind home finals for conference winners. It keeps us watching, even if it is just for one more game. They have sacrificed a small amount of competition fairness for the sake some extra viewer cash late in the season – after all, this is a business.
Last year, this tribal debate spilt into our Giteau law ex-pats. It didn’t seem to matter how good the players were or weren’t, there was a rising tide of dissent. Not only were they not from my franchise, they weren’t currently from any of my allied franchises. Older fans remembered them from ‘the good old days’ when they used to play for their franchise and gave them a free pass.
Spectators
One-eyed fans will only watch their team. Part timers watch two to three games depending on broadcast time or the perceived level of competition. True patriots will watch every Australian game.
Die-hards watch every game, wearing a buttock-shaped grove into their couch each weekend, frothy beverage or fruit of the vine in hand salivating at the opportunity to watch one more gladiatorial battle between two teams playing the world’s greatest game.
They will have an Australian favourite, a Kiwi and a South African franchise that they follow and probably a soft spot for the MoonDogs or Los Catos. They may even be plugged into the Six Nations and European competitions.
It’s clear that knowledge is power. The more games you see, the better qualified you are to make a rational suggestion. The die-hards will have genuine insight into the Giteau law players and will be able to compare Wallabies selections against their opposite numbers and also predict the style of game the opposition will play in the Rugby Championship.
If you watch your team only, other than ‘my player is great’, perhaps keep your selection suggestions to yourself.
Highlights packages can skew opinion, producing more bias, because they tend to show only the glory boys scoring and neglect a lot of the hard work done in the engine room. Red and yellow cards usually get air time.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Commentators
Many commentators are former players and have allegiances and biases of their own. Their position gives them the power to mould public opinion. There are several that tend to talk up their own favourite players, ignoring their flaws and deficiencies but highlighting their accolades. There is dead air when the opposition do something good by making their favourites look bad.
‘Bah, humbug,’ you say. Keep this in mind the next time you watch a game: look for the good and bad performances that get no lip service. You will be surprised.
Lies, damn lies and statistics
Many Roarers and others fans love their statistics and cherry pick players’ statistics to put forward an argument as to why their player is better than another.
Those statistics rarely tell the full story. A coast-to-coast try gives a 98-metre run stat to an outside back, but ten five-metre runs from a lock or loose forward into contact gives half that. Both are great performances but the numbers should be used only in the context of the player’s role when considering them for a position.
I am also distrusting of stats. I went looking for some after a game and found one missed tackle for certain a player. I saw two undisputable, costly misses in the four-minute highlights package. How many others were missed?
In the corporate world, key performance indicators (KPIs) are used to determine pay rises and promotions. Many employees only perform duties relating to these KPIs in order to further their careers.
My inner cynic believes that there is a similar trend in sport, with some players performing only the duties that will gain them positive stats. With statistics in isolation, a failed tackle is a black mark against a player; it is better not to attempt difficult tackles to avoid the negative stats.
(Image: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Selector(s)
Bias is fine if you’re a passionate keyboard warrior – hey, it helps keep this website running – but what about the selectors of an international side? There is no room for bias; their responsibility is to pick a team that will not only win the next match but the next 20.
The selectors’ job isn’t an easy one. They need to find a balance between picking a team of winners and at the same time nurturing depth for inevitable injuries while developing the players of tomorrow.
What about the ARU’s policy of coach/selector? Opinions vary.
Here are Timbo’s cold, calculated, emotion-free selection criteria:
1. Be match fit
All players need to have demonstrated their current form in recent games and prove that they can last the expected game time at the elite level. There is no room for players still recovering from injury.
2. Be best for the position
I choose my words carefully here. In many cases, especially in the backs, players are proficient in multiple positions and for the greater good may be playing out of position for their side or may be the second-best in their position but still better in a companion position. There can be some allowance for shuffling in the 10-12-15, 12-13, 11-13, 14-15 and 6,7,8 positions.
3. Have composure, discipline and leadership both on and off the field
Penalties and referee perception is very important at international level. This is especially important for the captain and vice captains. Wallabies players will be visible in the media for some time and will become role models for junior players. They need to be outstanding citizens in the community as well as being elite athletes.
4. Perform all the roles associated with the position
Players must not be asymmetric. They can’t be great at some duties but rely on other players to pick up the slack for the ones they are poor at. Different positions have different criteria – for example, the halves require agility and tend to require smaller, less physical players that may not be able to bring down a charging wildebeest like a lock or an outside centre can.
There is no room for on-the-job training. That is what club, NRC and Super Rugby are for.
(Image: AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Utility considerations
Many positions, in particular the bench, need to be able to cover multiple roles in case of injury and fatigue. It should be noted that four out of the eight subs are position specialists. A common example is that the six, eight and usually 19 can perform both back row and locking duties.
The backs and two reserves should be able to perform at least two or three roles, being mindful that the team needs to have a sniper and a cannon on the field at all times to perform the primary kicking duties.
Captains and other leaders are also considered to be desirable.
Multiple options
What many of us forget is that for many positions there are multiple players who are rated equally but bring different proportions of each required skill to the table. Postponing the debate on the Wallaby back row, I use Sam Cane, Matt Todd and Ardie Savea as a case study.
In my opinion, all are high-quality players worthy of All Blacks selection. Each varies in playing style. I prefer Savea because in Super Rugby games you are guaranteed excitement – but spectator excitement doesn’t win games.
Cane is better in the grind of a northern hemisphere international, and Todd is somewhere in the middle. I respect all three players but I also recognise that one may be more suitable. Thongs, joggers, work boots – all are great footwear options but not always right for the environment. The same applies to most positions in Australian rugby.
Our Roaring debates would run better if, collectively, we could appreciate all the players’ talents and discuss strengths and weaknesses rather than whether we think a player is rubbish or not.
Do you agree with my selection criteria? Do Cheika’s choices make sense? Let the debate begin.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Higgs at 8, Timani at 6 and we look at a few of the guys mentioned above for the bench. We have plenty of options. The persistence with Hanigan will soon have him selected just because he has experience
Neil
Guest
Then I guess you are entitled to your opinion, Timbo. As am I. Just as you see deficiencies in Hooper, I am not convinced the Emperor, Pocock, is fully clothed.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
I don't think you will get far implying Pocock isn't a great #7. Nick bishop is great at analyzing plays and play making but doesn't do a lot of analyzing and comparing players. His article didn't mention the negatives his game, Have you ever seen Hoops clean out a ruck? Do you think that this is OK? Alcock and Hardwick and MacMahon can all carry and pilfer and run wide, but they can ruck and bend the line too My outrage is for them, the departed. Line out Jumper isn't on my criteria for an open side so not an issue. Hoops a good ball carrier - my Ar$e. Watch the Scotland game again. There is no point gaining meters and then gift wrapping the ball for the opposition to kick back as a penalty. 2 turnovers -1 ended in a try, the other sealed the defeat, Were was the writeup on this? .... *the sound of crickets My beef is actually with Chieka for selecting him. Look at the great back rowers that have left or are leaving because of they can't get an opportunity behind a player with skills deficiencies.
Neil
Guest
Fortunately, Timbo, you aren't a selector as many others (you did comment on Nick bishop's excellent article) have a different opinion on Hooper. Pocock, poor ball carrier on attack and nothing in the lineout, is compensated by other players, but you single Hooper out as the the root of all evil. Anyway, subject to what happens with the Force (if there is a legal challenge), Pulver resigning etc, it will be a brave new world of Australian rugby.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
If you read my response carefuly, I don't think Ned is our best 6. Matt Phillip is a Lock (A good one) but not Mobile enough to play 6. I have Higgers at 8 in my side and can't play him in both positions. Not sure he is agile enough to play 6. RHP is my pick too but I must stand by my own criteria - he will struggle to make 80 minutes at international level and will need a sub.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Hoops does not and cannot move bodies in a ruck and provides limited resistance when protecting one. He fails Rule 4. Perform all the roles associated with the position If your criteria for an open side doesn't have ruck capabilities, fine, Have him in your side. I, and most selectors worldwide do require it. Find me another international level player like this and we can have a conversation. Kwagga Smith is close but he can Jump and knows how to clean out. Ragdoll, Pushed back on his Scooter. Not phrases you hear about G. Smith, Alcock, Pocock, Gill, Hardwick. Hoops leaves a gap in the forwards that Chieka blames all the other players for, but never Hoops. Hanigan is copping it on this site for not doing his job properly. Perhaps if Hoops helped him out once in a while, he wouldn't look so bad.
Nobody
Guest
The only bias I have is that players should be picked on SR form rather than reputation or in an effort to justify their generous top-ups. I struggle to understand how any player can be picked when they have played little or no SR games in 2017. Forcefan, I can think of at least two counter-examples. Ma'a Nonu was on the verge of not being able to find a super rugby side to play in after drifting through several and not performing well in any. Yet he was still a shoo-in for the ABs. Ali Williams couldn't even make the bench for the poorly-performing Blues under Nucifora. But Graham Henry had no hesitation choosing him for the ABs either. I think there are also others who have come back from long injury breaks straight into test matches and performed very well (just don't ask me to name them). My point? I don't really know, except to speculate that it might be more complex than you make out.
concerned supporter
Guest
Further to my comment yesterday, in relation to the people running NSW Waratahs, (I live in Sydney) In particular,I was disgusted what the NSW Waratah CEO said,I shall repeat it, "The new Waratahs CEO Andrew Hore said on the 13 May 2017” Waratahs Ceo Rugby breeds better people than rugby league http://www.sportingnews.com/au/league/news/andrew-hore-waratahs-rugby-league-v-rugby-union/1n2tbju5dngzl1dmqs6zujk7t4 Andrew Hore is a recent Kiwi blow in.Maybe he should address his comments to the 4,500 juniors playing Rugby League in the Penrith District and try to convince some to play for the always struggling Penrith Emus Rugby Club. Who did not win one game in 1st grade to 4th Grade for the entire 2017 season A few years ago I attended a Friday Grand Final Lunch,The club received 3 seperate good luck telegrams from former players who were currently residents of Silverwater on drug charges. P lease note Mr Andrew Hore.Drugs are not exclusive to Rugby League. Now I have discovered that Mr Hore is not as holy as people would think. I know we all make mistakes, and deserve second chances, but a Judge in Otago was recently critical of Mr Hore's behavior. This article appeared in the Otago Times. ".https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/court-news/hore-wins-court-battle-gun-licence-reinstated ' Judge Crosbie said "Mr Hore was convicted of supplying a firearm to an unlicensed person over the shooting incident and fined $400, plus court costs of $130. Judge Crosbie said the sentence indicated the offence was at the lower end of the scale.However, the judge remained worried about Mr Hore’s attitude. "I am concerned about the line maintained by the appellant with respect to alcohol. I am well aware that there are those who will advocate for the culture if a few drinks when shooting, although from his own evidence I query whether the appellant’s habits are of ‘a few’," he said.' Maybe Mr Hore should clean up his own act , before offering advice to other people.
Neil
Guest
Yes, I am aware of that, Fionn, but prior to that his game intensity - at least in my view - was still well down on his season start. Earlier in the season, I thought he was a sho-in as starting WB 8.
Fionn
Guest
'Higgers started the SR season with a bang and I was personally really impressed, but he faded to nothing during towards the end of the season.' Neil, he was injured towards the end of the season.
Neil
Guest
PeterK, While it is questionable whether Hannigan will or should make it on to the match day bench, I don’t have any problem with him being in the current squad. He is very young, needs to bulk up and learn a few clean out skills, but with the RWC two years away, I don’t think we can ignore what could be a good talent. Higgers started the SR season with a bang and I was personally really impressed, but he faded to nothing during towards the end of the season. There is no role for him at his age, if he can’t maintain the standard. Don’t have a view on RHP yet, but I think Philips has the makings of a great lock and certainly should have been in the squad before Douglas and certainly Simmons for exactly the same reason as Hannigan, ie building talent for the RWC.
Old10
Roar Rookie
Timbo - it's a tad ironic that your first reply and then this one would seem to indicate a fairly strong bias against the newly appointed skipper. As has been discussed previously on this site and other FB blogs, it's astounding how much flak he receives from a number of fans when stats of varying types are thrown up. Working on your analysis of ground gained by a fwd vs a winger, which I strongly agree with, I would assume you are basing your selection bias against him on something else other than stats? And so placing you and other detractors at odds with both state and wallaby peers on their judgement of his ongoing performance, besides widespread global praise on numerous occasions. Obviously I am a supporter and it astounds me we see the tall poppy syndrome so prevalent in use against a player who has consistently been one of our rocks since he first burst into the squad. I totally agree the coach has had some bizarre selection choices and will no doubt continue to be consistent in that. But Hooper being there is one thing he has consistently been proven correct on - according to peers and opponents. He is not Po, nor Gill nor Smith. But thankfully he has been himself and bugger me, if he hadn't been around in last years, I fear our performances would have been more concerning. I trust some detractors will get behind him as his peers do. He and they need all the positives they can get. Imho.
Wal
Roar Guru
Read went straight up against the Lions first test and had a blinder. McCaw did it a few time during his career, can't remember specific matches, but I think for both guys their base fitness is such that it gets them through. Coles was named on the bench for the first Bledisloe last year after a short injury lay off only to come on after only about 10 minutes played 70 minutes of gut busting rugby. Crotty Played the First Lions test after a hamstring strain had kept him out a few weeks. I think what all of the above have in common though is 2 things, Core Fitness (J Savea is never going to be rushed back in), and Rugby brains they know the game so well that even under massive fatigue they make sound decisions.
PeterK
Roar Guru
easy Higgs, RHP or Phillips at 6 well ahead of Hanigan Hanigan peforms no roles above barely acceptable.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
I can't exactly say outright in this article that Cheika runs a dictatorship and has got it completely wrong.from plan to staffing to people management. I'll let you join the dots and make that conclusion for yourself.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Tooly, Have you ever worked with SAS guys? They are capable of running multiple plans and have the agility to adapt, go off book and play to their strengths. The squads tend to to be a collective of guys with different skills, There is no point having 7 desert specialists when there is a chance you might end up in blizzard conditions or making a sea based assault.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
1/17 [ ] This is a real problem at scrum time! Mike Alalatoa? 2/16 TPN/Moore 3/18 AAA/Kepu 4/5/19 Arnold,Coleman, Simmonds or Carter (Reserve Callers) Matt Phillip 6/20
Fardy/MacMahonTimani/RHP 7Alcock//Pocock/Gill//Smith//Hardwick 8 Higgers 9/21 Ginea/Gordon 10 Foley 11 Speight 12Hunt/Meakes 13 Kerevi 14Niavalu/DHP 15 Hodge 22Cooper/Beale 23 Rona/TK Players to watch for next year: Tom Banks for 15, Mack Mason 10. Not a lot of Force on this list and More Tahs than you would think. Perhaps you should keep your unfounded opinions about me to yourself.Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
So who is your pick? Simmons also ticks all the boxes and is a lineout caller as a bonus but has the same physicality issues as Ned and Mumm. I have never seen Dempsey play Lock. I am not saying he can't, just that with 50 minutes of SR this year it is hard to tell what he can or can't do. Timani isn't a line out Primary. RHP is the mongrel we need but he is 10 mins short of a full game. MacMahon doesn't lock and is leaving, The inconvenient truth is we need a Big 8 - Higgers for example and we can go for a lighter more mobile 6 that doesn't have to lock- Timani, MacMahon for example, But that requires a change of game plan at 7 and we all know that isn't going to happen.
ForceFan
Guest
The only bias I have is that players should be picked on SR form rather than reputation or in an effort to justify their generous top-ups. I struggle to understand how any player can be picked when they have played little or no SR games in 2017. If Cheika selects a player out of position then that player should perform incredibly well - without excuses. I've never been so despondent at this time before the start of The Rugby Championship. Perhaps it's just the impact of the ARU/Force & Rebels debacle?....... Perhaps I'm not confident of our fielding a competitive team...... Perhaps it just the same old/same old with Cheika complaining about lack of fitness and kicking buts trying to get players fit. This is nothing new - he's done it every year. What changes has he instigated during the year to improve this situation? There certainly is no personal input into the players at the WForce as Cheika hasn't been to Perth since last year's Test against the Pumas. I just hope that he picks his 23 early and then gives them a chance to work together on plays rather than running them into the ground immediately before the Tests as he has continually done (even during the RWC). The body language of our players immediately pre-game indicates that they are bone tires even before the opening whistle. No spark. No sharpness in their play. How often have we played catch-up rugby with high hopes from the "finishers"? I'm also biased in that I'd like to see the players show some pride in the Jersey, some passion for the game, some line speed in support and a stronger presence over the tackled player (whether in attack or defence). And I don't want to hear our new Captain telling me that the squad has trained well - especially after we've lost the Test. Is that enough bias, or is it just preferences, in one post?
Morsie
Guest
Except when it's steel capped.