This could easily be one of those years when a team makes it all the way to the grand final from the bottom half of the top eight, but which team?
It’s impossible to say, because the teams occupying the four spots from fifth to eighth at this stage are all still capable – at least mathematically speaking – of finishing in the top four.
And there are two more teams currently outside of the top eight who are still a chance to make it in by the end of the 26 rounds of the regular season.
That’s the thing. The top eight – apart from clear leaders Melbourne – is so compressed we can’t be sure what we’re going to end up with in terms of order with at this stage.
The Storm, the obvious benchmarks, are six points ahead and also have a tremendous for-and-against differential of plus 181.
Second-placed Brisbane are the only other team with a differential topping the century. They are plus 160.
There are only ten points between the first and eighth-placed teams on the table with three rounds to go, but more importantly there are just four points between second and eighth.
By comparison, after 26 rounds last season, there were 15 points between first and eighth, and 12 points between second and eighth.
After 26 rounds in 2015 there were 12 points between first and eighth, and ten points between second and eighth.
The way it is this season, with not much difference in quality between so many of the teams in the running for the finals, there might end up being little difference – in reality – between the team that finishes, say, third, and the one that finishes sixth.
Then it comes down to what sort of momentum you’ve got going into the finals, what your situation is in terms of injury, and the bounce of the ball and the decision-making by the match officials on the day.
Obviously it would be a massive shock if the Storm didn’t win the minor premiership from here. They would have to lose all three of their remaining games and the Broncos win all three of theirs for that to happen.
Like the Broncos, third-placed Sydney Roosters are on 32 points, but their differential of plus 62 is a whopping 98 points inferior to that of Brisbane and 119 short of Melbourne.
The Broncos and Roosters are locked in a battle of their own. Second and third play each other in the first week of the finals, and if it’s Brisbane and the Roosters filling those spots then the lower-ranked of the pair is going to have to face the disadvantage of travelling interstate for the game.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
But, as unlikely as it may seem, it’s still possible for the Broncos – and, so, the Roosters and fourth-placed Cronulla – to actually miss the top four and finish in the bottom half of the eight.
Fifth-placed Parramatta had the chance to move into the four last week, but blew it when they lost a home game against last-placed Newcastle.
But, again, the compressed nature of the table means the Eels can still get there and the result of their Round 25 away game against Brisbane is going to mean a lot – to not only those two teams but also others around them.
Penrith have made a strong late-season charge into sixth place, with the chance to finish top four if they keep winning.
Seventh-placed Manly, defensively fragile, and eighth-placed North Queensland, finding it tough as the absence of Johnathan Thurston finally kicks in hard, look like weak links and their stumbles have helped bring ninth-placed St George Illawarra and tenth-placed Canberra back into the contest.
The Raiders would make a few teams nervous if they squeaked in and their home game against the Panthers on Sunday is another clash that is critical in terms of positions.
The way those two teams play and with so much riding on the result, that shapes as the match of the round.
woppadingo
Guest
Raiders will make the 8. They'll finish 7th in fact. Theyll beat the eels in the qualifying finals too. After that its anyone guess. Obviously assuming they'll beat the storm to end the regular season
Oingo Boingo
Guest
What about the Guerra knock on after the Roosters had split the Storm up the middle .... no knock on , just a momentum shifting decision , to give the ball back to the home side on the second tackle . Garbage refereeing overall .
Bugo
Guest
Storm have to lose twice? A team can lose only 1 game all season and not make the GF.
BigJ
Roar Guru
Only time will tell A 06 rematch would be a good one though just this time a Storm win
PNG Broncos fan88
Roar Guru
You could be right Emcie, but I have watched that same game twice and was so impressed by how the Roosters were so unflustered given all the defence they had to endure. Mind you, in the semis, the penalties will dry up and this will massively boost the way Sharks and Roosters can dictate the style of play against Melbourne's usual antics. I honestly think the Roosters have their measure if they meet up again before the GF.
PNG Broncos fan88
Roar Guru
I beg to differ bigJ, Melbourne's forward pack are of a lesser class then the internationals and Origin forwards bolstering the Sharks or Roosters teams. If it is any other side than those two for the prelim, Storm will be there for the GF no doubt - where my Broncs will be waiting for them ;-)
Emcie
Roar Guru
It's hard to tell off that game, a lot of the top teams have a mini preseason going into finals once their spots are looking certain and that can lead to poorer performances on field. A lot of the penalties the roosters gave away also did a lot to take momentum away from the Storm
BigJ
Roar Guru
No png they will be right mate.
BigJ
Roar Guru
What comments would that be mate i need a good laugh
PNG Broncos fan88
Roar Guru
Is it just me or I thought the Storm were poor on Saturday against the Roosters? They could not break the line for a try in the first half, the vid ref gave them one. The Roosters were thriving on keeping them out, their line was impregnable given all the penalties and trick shots from the big 3. Week1 finals, and if its the Roosters or Sharks on a drier day - Storm will be beaten on their home turf. I cannot see the best of their forwards matching the best of the Sharks or the Roosters pack. And wherever they travel to week3, if they survive week2, they will be in massive danger of missing the GF.
Kilgore Trout
Roar Rookie
It looks to be all the Storm at present and they thoroughly deserve it , however , the Roosters nearly beat them at their own game last week , and there is always the wildcard of injuries . Still a long way to go , but whoever takes it out the title this year will probably have to beat the Storm to do it .
Joe
Roar Rookie
Home ground advantage for Sydney teams is massive. Pretty much the same every time the Swans have to go down to Melbourne to play their finals there. Last year the Sharks support was phenomenal...and it also went all the way to the commentators. Whenever Storm make the GF they're up against it for sure.
The Spectator
Guest
Hard to see Storm missing out on gf yet if they make it against a Sydney club I'll back Sydney in no worries in Sydney, Mel v Q side, Mel a shoe in. I hope they make it as overwhelming favourites so the 80 can decide not the media.
The Spectator
Guest
Hey it's Big J, how's things mate, been a few funny posts since you've been away.
The Spectator
Guest
On advantage it is always first offence, penalty knock on what ever after is irrelevant if you haven't passed 10 meters from first infringement, if that is how the ref ruled, he was wrong, I saw and thought, back to knock on, no ad, as you said mind boggling, imagine gf, costing a team, would we get %100 fans on board that the ref's are hurting our game. It's not so much the ref's but the system there currently working under.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Gallen's been relatively quiet as well. I think the Sharks can give it a shake but they need a massive surge in form.
Birdy
Guest
Scott, Thats why i can never understand the EPL system , 7 weeks to go and no more speculating on the outcome.
Birdy
Guest
Gee i got that wrong. I'm a sucker for the underdog. But come rd 26 its a must win game, who knows. Go Raiders.
Bonza
Guest
As Sharks fan am hoping Fifita fires up. He needs to do something silly, be vilified by media then unleash. We can beat Storm if we rediscover 2016 aggression/swagger.
Joe
Roar Rookie
That was one of the dumbest calls I've seen in rugby league. The problem is no one is asking whether the ref made the right call according to the rules because they're all talking about the penalty try. If he did make the right call according to the rules then the rules have to be changed because that is just stupid. Clear knock on then Slater picks up the ball and runs behind Ado-Carr therefore there is no advantage to Storm so it should have gone back to the knock on but the ref says he can't downgrade from a penalty to a knock-on and therefore gives the Roosters the penalty!?? mind numbing stuff.