Before last weekend, I had six teams still in with a chance to win the NRL premiership, but a combination of disturbing results for several of those and some key injuries had me cut that number in half.
Particularly when the benchmark set by the Storm is so high. Just when you think they can’t get much better, they peel off a 64-6 win over South Sydney at home.
There is no sense in rating too many teams outside of Melbourne as a hope when it is this late in the season, that is the standard they must at least get close to reaching and some have significant issues.
So I’m setting aside Cronulla, Penrith and Brisbane, even though the latter will still finish in the top four.
North Queensland, Manly and St George Illawarra were already each clearly not good enough to win it.
Two weeks ago, the Storm’s biggest opposition might have come from the bottom half of the eight, because it was likely both Parramatta and the Panthers would end there.
But now the Eels, courtesy of a 52-34 win over the Broncos on the road, should finish in the top four by beating Souths at ANZ Stadium on Friday night.
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I was never really convinced by Brisbane. Their 42-12 loss at home against Melbourne in Round 17 stuck in my mind and now they have conceded 50-plus at home only two weeks before the finals.
Plus, they have lost prop Korbin Sims to injury for the rest of the season, on top of hooker Andrew McCullough already being out.
I just can’t see them pulling it all the way back from there, particularly when Melbourne aren’t likely to come down much.
The Roosters looked like they had blown an opportunity to finish in the all-important top two, but their courageous win over the Sharks on the road combined with Brisbane’s loss has put them in the box seat to run second.
It was only recently that the Roosters gave the Storm a close contest on the road.
The Eels are the real deal. They’re not the world’s biggest side, but they’re so tough and hopefully for them they’ll get fullback Bevan French back from injury for the first week of the finals.
That could well be a first versus fourth match-up against the runaway minor premiers, but I’m not writing off the chances of Parramatta finishing as high as third and playing the Roosters instead of Melbourne.
AAP Image/Dean Lewins
I give the Cowboys a decent shot at beating Brisbane at home on Thursday night and condemning the Broncos to a trip to Melbourne.
North Queensland have found it particularly difficult without Johnathan Thurston recently, but they have at least stayed competitive and, who knows? The Broncos could be a bit shaky coming off that loss to Parramatta.
I was really disappointed by Penrith in their 16-14 loss to St George Illawarra at home. I know, the Dragons played well, but this was a chance for the Panthers to capitalise on a great run of seven straight wins by making it eight to finally clinch a place in the finals.
They should have been at their most intense but they weren’t and that has left them at some risk of actually missing the eight.
Plus, they have lost one of their in-form players, fullback Dylan Edwards, to injury and would have to go deep into the finals before seeing him back on the field.
Penrith captain Matt Moylan has been included among the four added reserves for Sunday’s game against Manly at Lottoland, but that may be more in hope than anything else. Appearing in an interview, he didn’t seem confident about getting over a hamstring injury in time to play this week.
Cronulla have lost three of their last four games. Yes, I know they lost four out of their last five regular-season games last year, but there’s more to the story now.
There have been enough signs this season to suggest the Sharks haven’t come up quite as well as they did last year, when they had enough wins in the bank to overcome that poor finish to the regular season before going on to win the premiership.
This season, their disappointing late-season form is set to see them finish in the bottom half of the top eight, and even in the knowledge that was a risk of happening if they didn’t rack up another win in time, they almost certainly won’t avoid it now.
The Sharks look like yet another team that is going to be unable to make it back-to-back titles.
Adam
Guest
There are 8 teams that can win it. You need to win a maximum of what, four games to take the title, maybe only three. A good win in week one and you get a bit of momentum and anything is possible. To say only three teams can win it is a bit disrespectful to the other 5 teams
Rabbit
Guest
Cronulla will put on there big boy pants and spank a few teams
BleakCity
Roar Rookie
Sure but the Eels had 1-2 on the bench for much of the game, their 3rd string fullback playing and it was 52-22 with 3 mins to go. Plus the penalty count was 10-2 against them. Besides it was never a defensive game - Broncs were playing high risk footy so it was always going to be try fest no matter what Bellamy says.
BleakCity
Roar Rookie
The thing I would be worried most about if I were a Broncs supporter is they talked a big game leading up to last week "we won't be ambushed by Parra this time" "we won't be bullied this week" etc and yet a number of players didn't aim up in defence or attack (including some senior ones). Although more surprising was Bellamy airing his thoughts on both Broncs & Eels after the game. Maybe it was actually a subtle reminder to his own team (which if it was worked a treat) but it could backfire if one of these sides play the storm in the finals.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Hreally? I don't hate Lockyer or the Broncos. Why do you say that?
Brian
Guest
The eels leaked 34 points to the Broncos who were at their absolute worst. We all know they are capable of stringing brilliant defensive performances together, as we saw two weeks back against the Drags.
Zedman
Roar Rookie
2010 was legit.
Beastie
Guest
In saying that, it was a pretty handy team that beat them containing legends like Buderus, Kennedy, O'Davis, Tahu, M Gidley, and of course, A Johns. Not many teams running around at the moment with quality like that in the line-up except for the Storm.
Duncan Smith
Guest
The difference is Smith / Cronk / Slater are big game specialists with over 100 origins between them. Compare that to Parra 2001. Storm will be hot favourites if they make the GF.
Duncan Smith
Guest
Your experience of that night sounds very similar to mine. What a debacle that game was.
KenW
Guest
As a diehard I dare to dream - hey it's just 5 games in a row from here - but I can't really pretend that this can be justified from the facts. That early run shows that the talent is there but they've been a very inconsistent football team for most of the year. Still one week at a time and all that, if they don't get over the Dogs then there is no next week.
Deir-ba-zor
Guest
well someone could get busted for taking banned substances.
KenW
Guest
Ouch that would have hurt. I went to the Dragons v Storm game that same weekend. A nervous occasion on two fronts. The Dragons had been playing well but were significant underdogs and it was the first footy game I had taken my girlfriend, now wife, to. I remember Inglis cutting us up for a lovely try down the middle. Alas the Dragons did not score enough that night, and neither did I - it was the first time (but not the last) my significant other decided I wasn't much fun to be around after a Saints loss.
PNG Broncos fan88
Roar Guru
Ok, now I see why you hate D Lockyer and the Broncs.
Lance Skelton
Roar Pro
My bolter for the premiership is St George. At the start of the year they were red hot. They fell away over the State of Origin period, and have been patchy ever since. But if they sneak into the finals they could cause a few headaches, especially if their forward pack gets on a roll.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Ohhhh... I get it! Thanks mushi.
The Barry
Roar Guru
2006 was a nightmare...I was at the final between the Dogs and Broncos at the SFS. O'Meley, Mason, Asotasi were toweling up the Broncos forwards and leading 20-2 a minute before halftime. Broncs (Berrigan?) scored in the dying seconds to make it 20-6 at halftime. I said to a mate "that try makes me nervous" but really I was still thinking "how am I going to get GF tickets?" Broncs came out in the second half and smoked us and ended up winning 40-20 or something. I went out afterwards and went a little haywire...I think it was as much the emotional rollercoaster as the booze...that's my excuse any way.
mushi
Guest
because they weren't won by the west tigers!
Busty McCracken
Guest
Manly 97 against newcastle... lost Parramtta 2001 against newcastle... lost Both times, unbackable favourites and couldn't get across the line. A bellamy coached team with smith slater and cronk is a bit different but still they are by no means home. The bigger the favouritism the higher the pressure close to the 80th minute in a tight one.
KenW
Guest
Oh and of course the Storm themselves in 2006. Just looking back their regular season dominance there resulted in a very similar ladder position to what they have now. Downed by Brisbane who only ended a 5 game losing streak a few weeks out from the finals.