After 26 rounds, the culmination of which was a drama-packed finale to the regular season, only eight teams remain and it will come down to a series of nine matches to decide who this year’s NRL premiers will be.
This year’s line-up of finalists is the strongest as it has ever been, with perennial finalists the Storm and Broncos right up there among the premiership contenders, while the Roosters and Eels shape as New South Wales’ best chances of keeping the trophy within our borders.
The two most recent premiers, the Sharks and the Cowboys, will meet in an elimination final which will also double as their fourth finals meeting in the past five years.
So, which club has what it takes to claim rugby league’s holy grail? Here is your full preview to the first week of the finals series.
[2] Sydney Roosters versus [3] Brisbane Broncos
Friday, September 8
7:55pm
Allianz Stadium
This season: Broncos 32-8, Round 6, Suncorp Stadium; Roosters 18-16, Round 13, Allianz Stadium.
Last meeting in a final: Broncos 31-12, 2015 second preliminary final, Suncorp Stadium.
If the Sydney Roosters claim this year’s premiership, then they can look back to the final ten minutes of their last round clash against the Gold Coast Titans as a massive turning point in their season.
Why? Because if they had not scored two late tries, then they would have had to travel to Brisbane for a daunting qualifying final against the Broncos, against whom they have lost their last three in the sunshine capital.
For 70 minutes the Roosters were made to look second rate against a side that was only playing for pride amidst a shocking back end of the season, but they eventually won thanks to tries from Michael Gordon and Boyd Cordner.
Their reward is home ground advantage against the Broncos, who will be missing captain Darius Boyd after the Maroons backman suffered a hamstring injury at half-time of the club’s 20-10 win over the Cowboys in Townsville.
Recent history is also against Wayne Bennett’s men, who have also lost five of their last six matches against the Roosters at Friday night’s venue, Allianz Stadium, including earlier this year by just 18-16.
The two meetings between the clubs this year were split, with the Broncos winning easily 32-8 in Brisbane in Round 6 before the Roosters returned serve with an 18-16 win at Friday night’s venue, Allianz Stadium, in Round 13.
The Broncos have also found themselves in familiar territory, this being the sixth time in the past sixteen years in which they have finished third at the end of the minor rounds.
On three of those occasions, they have reached at least the preliminary final, going on to win the title in 2006 despite losing their second qualifying final against the Dragons that year.
On the other two occasions, however, they went out in straight sets in 2004 and 2005 with losses to the Storm in both years’ qualifying finals, and then the Cowboys and Wests Tigers in the semi-finals respectively.
While the two teams’ most recent finals meeting came in a preliminary final at Suncorp Stadium just less than two years ago, this will be their first finals meeting before this stage since 2008.
At home, where they have only lost once this year, and facing a Broncos side missing their inspirational captain in Darius Boyd, the Roosters should prove too strong.
For the winner: Direct passage into the preliminary final.
For the loser: Await the winner of the Sea Eagles versus Panthers elimination final. If the Roosters lose, it will definitely be a grand final rematch from either 2013 or 2003.
Prediction: Roosters by 12 points.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
[1] Melbourne Storm versus [4] Parramatta Eels
Saturday, September 9
4:10pm
AAMI Park
This season: Eels 22-6, Round 18, AAMI Park.
Last meeting in a final: Storm 23-16^, 2009 grand final, ANZ Stadium,
^ – the Melbourne Storm was stripped of this premiership following a discovery of salary cap breaches in April 2010.
For Parramatta Eels fans young and old, to quote Jarryd Hayne, “it’s been a long time!”.
Eight years have passed since the Eels last played a final, when they lost the 2009 grand final to a Melbourne Storm side that nobody knew at the time had illegally assembled a side that was over the salary cap.
When the salary cap breaches were uncovered on April 22, 2010, many Eels fans turned into a rage of anger after it was revealed that their side were indeed dudded by a side which as punishment would have two premierships and three minor premierships stripped from them.
Why it has taken until now for the blue-and-gold to return to September is anyone’s guess.
Since October 4, 2009, the Eels have seen the back of three coaches, including Daniel Anderson, Stephen Kearney and Ricky Stuart, claimed back-to-back wooden spoons in 2012 and 2013 and last year were stripped of 12 competition points and their Auckland Nines title for salary cap breaches.
But their return to the finals will indeed come full circle when they face the Storm for the first time since that decider, after achieving their first top-four finish since 2005.
But while they can take confidence from the fact they won their only regular season meeting against the Storm in Round 18, Craig Bellamy’s men were at the time missing several players to Origin duties.
It was one of four defeats the Storm have suffered this season, the others being against the Sharks, Titans and Roosters. It is their most successful regular season since 2007, when it lost just three games (though it must be said that they were fielding an illegally-assembled team that year).
The Storm also enter their fourteenth finals campaign in the last 15 years having won their last seven matches.
The first qualifying final will also pit master against apprentice, as Arthur spent several years under Bellamy at the Storm as an assistant coach during the time in which the club was ruled to have operated illegally.
(AAP Image/Paul Miller)
As a matter of fact, Arthur coached the Storm’s under-20s side to the Toyota Cup premiership in 2009, which remained unaffected by the punishments handed down by the NRL for the aforementioned salary cap breaches.
While the potential is there for an upset, I can’t see the Storm being beaten at home here.
For the winner: Direct passage into the preliminary final.
For the loser: Await the winner of the Sharks versus Cowboys elimination final. If the Storm lose, and the Sharks win, it will set up a grand final rematch from last year.
Prediction: Storm by 18 points.
[6] Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles versus [7] Penrith Panthers
Saturday, September 9
7:40pm
Allianz Stadium
This season: Panthers 16-8, Round 18, Pepper Stadium; Sea Eagles 28-12, Round 26, Lottoland.
Last meeting in a final: Panthers 10-7, 1985 playoff, Sydney Cricket Ground.
It was only last Saturday night that the Sea Eagles and Panthers duked it out under the lights at Lottoland, with a fast start by the hosts seeing them run out convincing 28-12 winners.
Despite the result, both teams have qualified for the finals and seven nights on they will once again face off, this time in a sudden death elimination final at Allianz Stadium, following a dramatic final day of the regular season.
Touted as pre-season premiership favourites, the Panthers endured a horror start to the season, winning just two of their first nine games, before righting the ship to finish seventh on the ladder.
However, their title hopes have copped a major blow with news that captain Matt Moylan is set to sit out the entire finals series as he ponders his future in the game.
The time away from rugby league could help both Moylan and the Panthers in the long-term, should he decide to remain with the club beyond this year.
The two meetings between the clubs were split this season, with each claiming a win on their home grounds.
However, this will be their first finals meeting in 32 years, when the Panthers won a finals playoff at the expense of the Sea Eagles at the SCG.
In the end, Matt Moylan’s absence will conspire against the Panthers and the Sea Eagles should make it to week two.
For the winner: A semi-final date with the loser of the Roosters versus Broncos qualifying final.
For the loser: Season over.
Prediction: Sea Eagles by 16 points.
[5] Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks versus [8] North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday, September 10
4:10pm
Allianz Stadium
This season: Sharks 18-14, Round 11, Southern Cross Group Stadium; Sharks 26-16, Round 24, 1300SMILES Stadium.
Last meeting in a final: Sharks 32-20, 2016 second preliminary final, Allianz Stadium.
The last of the four finals will see the Sharks and Cowboys face off in a rematch of last year’s preliminary final, with this to be the fourth finals meeting between the pair in five years.
It also pits together the two most recent premiers, the Cowboys having won their first premiership in 2015 and the Sharks doing likewise last year.
Both teams defeated each other to do so, with the Cowboys winning in a semi-final landslide in 2015 by 39-0 and the Sharks getting their revenge in last year’s preliminary final, winning 32-20.
The two teams also met in a controversial elimination final in 2013, when a Beau Ryan seventh-tackle try proved to be the difference as the Sharks won a close one by 20-18.
The Sharks have endured an up-and-down season of sorts, their inconsistency towards the back end costing them a cherished double chance in the finals.
This means that if they are to become the first team since the Broncos in 1992-93 to successfully retain their premiership, they will have to win four consecutive finals to do so.
Not since the Wests Tigers in 2005 has any team won four consecutive finals to win the title, and no team has yet done so since the current finals system was introduced in 2012.
While that is the uphill task facing the Sharks, they’ll be up for it.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Their opponents, the Cowboys, should consider themselves lucky to have qualified for the finals for the seventh consecutive year, after the Dragons failed to beat the Bulldogs in the penultimate game of the regular season.
Their 20-10 loss to the Broncos left them at risk of missing out on September action for the first time since 2010, but the Bulldogs ended up doing them a favour by ending the Dragons’ season at ANZ Stadium last Sunday.
Still, the Cowboys enter September in poor form, having lost five of their last six matches to tumble to their final ladder position of eighth.
The fact that Paul Green’s men have made it into the finals is an achievement in itself considering they lost both their co-captains, Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston, to long-term knee and shoulder injuries respectively during the balance of the season.
Like the Sharks, if the Cowboys are to reach the grand final, they’ll also have to do it the hard way, but in their case they will get no home finals meaning they will have to travel for the entirety of their finals campaign.
It’s a tough ask, but will they be up for it?
For the winner: A semi-final date with the loser of the Storm versus Eels qualifying final.
For the loser: Season over.
Prediction: Sharks by 14 points.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
Very true about Lussick JH. While his hands sometimes let him down, there is no doubting his hunger. He's always quick off the line and hopefully the others follow. I'll look out for the sign in the crowd! I got an email last night from the SCG Trust saying members get free entry to all NRL Finals games at the SFS this weekend. Which means there should be a bumper crowd as the Swans are playing next door at 4pm. No doubt plenty will try to catch both games and wander in after the Swans are finished. I'm almost tempted to fly down for it!
Rellum
Roar Guru
As a Broncs fan I am more confident of beating the Chooks than most of the other finals teams. I am not too fussed over loosing Boyd given his form but the disruption to the halves might be thing thing that kills us.
R N
Roar Rookie
I am going to get my old man to put $10 on the Sharks to win by 12, thus almost ensuring the Cows victory! Will be happy to reimburse him...
Henry Bartlley
Guest
Cows to proof all wrong.
RM
Guest
swings and roundabouts...
matth
Guest
Chaos is a ladder all the way until you get your throat cut by a teenage girl.
BleakCity
Roar Rookie
I'm thinking the Roosters/Broncs and the Eagles/Panthers games should be close & hard to pick with their ins/outs. Suspect the other 2 games will blow out in 2nd half but you never know, hopefully 4 cracking games.
Wild Eagle
Guest
Api has been to a GF before and won despite coming back from long lay off and having no match fitness. He was rated 8/10 in that game. Penny Panthers beware of a fitter and stronger Api this time. Which Eagles team turns up? I reckon it is curiously absent from our history and that is a team who stumbles into the finals and then goes on an unexpected run. However this team is a lot different to any other in our history and I have some degree of confidence in this happening.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Agree EJ. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, it won't take long to realise if making the 8 was Manly's ultimate goal. I feel better knowing Lussick will be on deck, he was one of our best last year and adds a real presence around the ruck. I bet Campbell-Gillard reverts to the bench...O'l Freddie Mercury will be simmering all week!! Will do mate - I might even do up a flag with your logo on it :)
eagleJack
Roar Guru
That's my biggest fear too JH. But surely if we know that the Panthers will come at them at another level, and everyone who has ever watched 2mins of sport would realise this too, then surely the players will know it's coming. And will lift the intensity themselves. The trouble is Manly have a number of times this year failed to bring intensity when it counts. Far too often sitting on their heels in the defensive line. Last week was beautiful to watch. I just hope they don't expect it to happen again without putting in the effort. Enjoy it out there JH - should be a belter!
Joe
Roar Rookie
I think all games will be 1-12. I thought possibly Cowboys might be a blowout due to their injury struggles but a 10 day turnaround should get their boys in good enough shape to give it a really good go. Roosters - I think Boyd out is a big one and they haven't done to well at Alliance. Storm - Going to be a lot closer than anyone thinks. Also think if an upset is on this week its this game where nobody gives the Eels a chance. Manly - If Lussick had been suspended would have picked Panthers these two teams will be that close. Sharks - Cowboys injuries will catch up to them in the second half and Sharks boosted by the returns of Graham and likely Bird and even possibly Tagatese. These guys are huge ins and Tagatese is so underrated off the bench but he hits very hard and players avoid him on the field.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Penrith will been armed with the kitchen sink this week. My biggest fear is that Manly will struggle to replicate the finals intensity they showed last week. Although the Panthers aren't the same without Moylan and are well below the form they showed in last year's finals. I can't wait to get out there, a day hasn't passed where I haven't visualised Hodkinson kicking the Eagles out of the 2014 finals. Fans of both side should ditch the couch and get out there - nothing beats finals footy.
Roberto
Guest
The refs will keep the other 3 games close, 1-12 margin wins for the Sydney matches. They will be mind controlled by Smith in Melbourne, that is 13+ territory for sure.
RM
Guest
Storm definitely have the wood on Brisbane, but it's not really accurate to say they have shown again and again they can't beat them. Over the past couple of seasons before 2017, the games were actually split 2-2, with Brisbane winning both their games in Melbourne and Melbourne winning both their games in Brisbane. Then this season, Brisbane were on top for almost the whole game down at AAMI Park, finally going down by 2 points after a 78th minute try and sideline conversion from the Storm. That game also included a fair try to the Broncos being disallowed by an overzealous touchie. Of course the rematch in Brisbane later in the season resulted in an absolute shellacking, but the Storm can do that do anyone when they're in the mood and Brisbane had something like 5 players out injured, from memory. I think the reason people might think Brisbane is more of a threat to Melbourne than Sydney is that just occasionally, Melbourne can look rattled by teams who refuse to play their game. Very few teams can beat Melbourne if they try to play like Melbourne, but teams who can successfully pull off an up-tempo, attacking brand of football with plenty of offloads and less structure can force the Storm out of their comfort zone. Of course, trying to play that way against Melbourne and succeeding to play that way against Melbourne are two very different things, but it's how the Broncos beat them at AAMI in 2016, for instance. Regardless of all that, I still don't think either the Broncos or the Roosters are a huge threat to the Storm this year. Or any of the teams, really. It really is their competition to lose. Part of me is hoping for an upset from the Eels just to throw a little chaos into the competition. Chaos is a ladder, after all...
Oingo Boingo
Guest
I don't care how much the Roosters win by , as long as it's not in extra time . Parra have their work cut out , but I can't see them losing by a ton , maybe a try or two in it . They may even shock the NRL world with a win. Manly will double dose the Panthers , and the Sharkies will put the cows outta their misery .
The Barry
Roar Guru
Should be a good first round. Broncos v Roosters should be a tight game. I think it will be Roosters just. Hopefully both teams can hit form after strong but up and down seasons. I haven't seen either hit top form for more than a week or two at a time. Can't see the Eels winning. Sorta hope they do to add some spice to the series. I think the Eels will fight strong but never really be in it. Maybe a blowout score at the end with us all shaking our heads saying "how did that happen?" Coming to Sydney will be a step too far for the Cowboys. They'll fight hard as they have but it won't be enough. The other game is the toughest. The head says Manly after such a strong showing last week but how often do you see a team bounce back in this scenario? I'll still go with Manly - just. Amazing Panthers and Manly haven't played a semi since 1985!
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Mastermind has a habit (I don't know why ahah) of picking blowouts for a lot of games, I've noticed it when reading his previews. Personally, I'm taking Roosters by 2, Storm by 20, Panthers by 4 and Sharks by 2.
Benny
Guest
I get your point on Brisbane's ceiling being higher this year (even though I think the Roosters actual ceiling is higher, just haven't hit it yet), but I'm still confused as to why most people see Brisbane as a bigger threat to Melbourne. Brisbane have showed time and time again that they can't beat Melbourne. They don't match up well. They can't even beat them in Suncorp, ever! Yet the Roosters came the closest to beating the Storm that anyone has since round 18, losing by 3 points in Melbourne and copping a dubious penalty try in the midst of it.
RM
Guest
Wow - every game in the first week of finals to be a blowout, according to these predictions. The lowest winning margin you have is 12? I doubt it. And I certainly hope it isn't the case...it would certainly give plenty of ammunition to fans claiming 2017 is a dud season if there wasn't a single close match in 4 finals. I can see the Storm by 18 result happening - they have just been blowing teams off the park all season long, and while Parra have also put teams to the sword there has also been a brittleness to them and I can't see them matching Melbourne in full flight. Like all the other teams left in the comp, the Eels need the Storm to have an off night. For the rest - The Sharks are favourites for this game but the Cowboys have fought harder than most other teams in the top 8 and that will continue this week. They might lose, but I can't see them losing by a large margin. Sharks by 8. Manly did a job on Penrith early on last week, but then took their foot of the gas and Penrith finished strongly. For both these teams, the gap between their best and worst has been huge this season and I can honestly see either team winning it depending on what version of their teams show up on the day. If both teams show up and it's a close tussle, I'd back DCE to get his boys home. Manly by 1. Both the Roosters and the Broncos have also had similar seasons. Both inconsistent and I've never really had the impression that either team was a major threat to Melbourne's dominance. Of the two, I'd say the Roosters have a much smaller gap between their best and their worst this season, but the Broncos ceiling is higher (evidenced by their excellent attacking record, miles ahead of any other team apart from Melbourne). I'm not about to back against my Broncos though, so I'll say Brisbane by 2 for no real reason other than I want them to...