Cheer up Melbourne fans! The great Dee-pression is almost over

Melbourne’s 2017 was like everything we’ve seen from the club in the last decade – terrifying lows, dizzying highs, creamy middles, and of course gut-wrenching disappointment – rolled into a single season.

But, despite that, the Demons are on the path back to finals success, and nearing the end of it.

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
17 – Gold Coast Suns
16 – Carlton Blues
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

2017 in short

There was so much positive energy around Melbourne at times this year, with a widespread belief that they were ready for a return to finals.

Well, unless you’ve been living on Mars you’ll know it didn’t happen – an upset loss to Collingwood in the final round saw them miss out on percentage, and just 0.2 per cent at that.

That was as heartbreaking as you will see in this competition, but it should still be noted that the Demons achieved much this year, breaking a number of longstanding hoodoos and belting the minor premiers at home.

For a more comprehensive look at Melbourne’s 2017, check out Stirling Coates’ season review.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Coach

Simon Goodwin took over from Paul Roos at the end of 2016 after a two-year apprenticeship under him, and while he ultimately failed to take the team to finals in his first year, he still ought to be happy with the results.

Under his influence, Melbourne have graduated from playing Roos’ defence-first gameplan to one with a greater respect for attacking football, and they’ll only get better as they become more familiar with it.

He is signed on to coach the Demons until the end of 2019, and if they continue to improve/ then there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be around much longer than that.

Captain

Nathan Jones has led the Dees for several years now and in 2017 was joined in the role by Jack Viney.

Both copped injuries, which left Melbourne without either of their co-captains for a few crucial games in the latter half of the season.

The leadership is always one area that cops a public flogging when a team flops in the way that Melbourne did, but all things considered the succession plan looks solid.

Whether it is in 2018 or later, Viney will eventually be sole captain, and looks a good fit in that role, though Angus Brayshaw, when he cements himself, could be a fine choice also.

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

List management

A decade of poor recruiting – or was it poor development? Or both? – left Melbourne with a playing list that looked more like a not-entirely-sober Contiki tour only just a few years ago, but heavy investment in youth alongside canny recruiting of mature leaders has radically improved their position.

The likes of Bernie Vince, Jordan Lewis (both 31), Jeff Garlett (28), Michael Hibberd (27) and Jake Melksham (26) were all recruited after Roos’ arrival.

The only players at Melbourne 26 or older who are reliably in the best 22 and have played their whole careers with the Dees are Nathan Jones (29) and Neville Jetta (27), which shows just how thin they otherwise would have been on veteran leadership.

This is a decent collection of players, but where the excitement factor really exists on Melbourne’s list is the 25-and-under category.

Max Gawn (25), Tom McDonald, Dom Tyson (all 24), Jack Viney (23), Jesse Hogan, Jayden Hunt, Christian Salem (all 22), Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Alex Neal-Bullen (all 21), Billy Stretch, Sam Weideman and Clayton Oliver (all 20) all shape as key players.

While it would be heartwarming to see players like Jones get their shot at a finals campaign or even a flag, Melbourne’s window for success likely opens when this group fully matures.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

One notable aspect of Melbourne’s recruiting since 2012 is a focus on acquiring players who are renowned for their competitiveness, in an attempt to rebuild what was a poor culture.

That’s still a work in progress, of course. Sometimes you can see it shining through, but at other times they are clearly a side still burdened by the nervousness of youth.

However, it has resulted in a midfield group that will be the hardest in the comp to play against when they come into their prime – the trio of Viney, Brayshaw and Oliver will be a centre-bounce team that opposition midfielders dread matching up on.

At the same time, they’ve managed to acquire a decent amount of class, with the likes of Hunt, Salem and Petracca all having some quality skills. There’s certainly room for improvement on both sides of the equation, but the key thing here is that the future midfield looks well-balanced.

Jesse Hogan provides them with a truly elite key forward prospect to kick to, and eventually in time he’ll be partnered by Sam Weideman, likely allowing Tom McDonald to return to being a full-time defender.

All things considered, it’s a fairly complete group with talent in all the right areas, and while it hasn’t arrived yet, success will come if they keep making wise recruiting decisions.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Melbourne players by age
Bernie Vince – 31yr 11mth
Jordan Lewis – 31yr 4mth
Cam Pedersen – 30yr 5mth
Nathan Jones – 29yr 7mth
Colin Garland – 29yr 4mth
Jeff Garlett – 28yr 1mth
Jake Spencer – 27yr 10mth
Michael Hibberd – 27yr 8mth
Neville Jetta – 27yr 6mth
Tim Smith (R) – 26yr 6mth
Jack Watts – 26yr 5mth
Jake Melksham – 26yr
Jack Trengove – 26yr
Corey Maynard (R) – 25yr 10mth
Max Gawn – 25yr 8mth
Aaron Vandenberg – 25yr 6mth
Tom McDonald – 24yr 11mth
Tomas Bugg – 24yr 4mth
Dom Tyson – 24yr 2mth
Sam Frost – 24yr
Dean Kent – 23yr 6mth
Ben Kennedy – 23yr 6mth
Mitchell Hannan – 23yr 5mth
Jack Viney – 23yr 4mth
Josh Wagner – 23yr 2mth
Jesse Hogan – 22yr 6mth
Jay Kennedy-Harris – 22yr 5mth
Jayden Hunt – 22yr 5mth
Declan Keilty (R) – 22yr 3mth
Christian Salem – 22yr 1mth
James Harmes – 21yr 10mth
Christian Petracca – 21yr 7mth
Angus Brayshaw – 21yr 7mth
Alex Neal-Bullen – 21yr 7mth
Joel Smith (R) – 21yr 6mth
Oscar McDonald – 21yr 5mth
Mitchell White (R) – 21yr 4mth
Patrick McKenna – 21yr
Billy Stretch – 20yr 11mth
Mitch King – 20yr 8mth
Liam Hulett – 20yr 5mth
Sam Weideman – 20yr 2mth
Clayton Oliver – 20yr 1mth
Dion Johnstone – 19yr 3mth
Lachlan Filipovic (R) – 19yr

Vince is the name that immediately catches the eye among this year’s out of contract players – while he has slowed down a bit, it seems more likely than not that he can get another year, though it would surely be his last.

Looking ahead at the 2018 contracted group, Melbourne have plenty of work to do in order to keep their talent together, but there don’t appear to be any obvious flight risks.

Tom McDonald took till late in the year to re-sign last time he got a new deal, with Sydney following his situation closely then, so he will be a priority to lock away.

Petracca is one that other clubs will already be eyeing off but after receiving such support from the club during his ACL injury it’s hard to believe he’d seriously consider leaving.

Brayshaw, Gawn and Neal-Bullen will be the other key names to lock away sooner rather than later.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Melbourne players by contract status
2020
Michael Hibberd
Jayden Hunt
Jack Viney

2019
Jeff Garlett
Jesse Hogan
Nathan Jones
Jordan Lewis
Jake Melksham
Clayton Oliver
Christian Salem
Joel Smith (R)
Billy Stretch
Dom Tyson
Jack Watts
Sam Weideman

2018
Angus Brayshaw
Colin Garland
Max Gawn
Mitch Hannan
James Harmes
Neville Jetta
Dion Johnstone
Declan Keilty (R)
Jay Kennedy-Harris
Dean Kent
Oscar McDonald
Tom McDonald
Pat McKenna
Alex Neal-Bullen
Cam Pedersen
Christian Petracca
Tim Smith (R)
Josh Wagner

Out of contract
Lachlan Filipovic (R)
Liam Hulett
Mitch King
Jake Spencer
Jack Trengove
Aaron Vandenberg
Bernie Vince
Mitch White (R)

Unconfirmed
Tom Bugg
Sam Frost
Ben Kennedy

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Delistings and retirements

Melbourne haven’t made any formal delistings or retirements yet.

They said goodbye to a former skipper in Jack Grimes last year and it looks likely that his co-captain, Jack Trengove, will make way in this one, having failed to cement a spot in the side despite getting a decent run of fitness.

Other decisions will be harder to make. Neither Mitch King nor Liam Hulett have yet been given a chance to play an AFL game, and Aaron Vandenberg missed the entire season with a foot injury, but the Demons must make room on the list somehow.

Free agency

Jake Spencer (unrestricted)
Jack Trengove (unrestricted)

Trengove seems unlikely to get a deal either at Melbourne or elsewhere. Jake Spencer will presumably get a new deal to provide ruck depth behind Gawn, but if he doesn’t, other clubs may consider him for a similar role.

Melbourne haven’t been linked to any free agents this year and that seems unlikely to suddenly change, as by virtue of needing to be in the system at least eight years before qualifying, they are all generally older than the window the Dees will be looking to target.

Jarrad McVeigh in a player-to-coach deal would’ve been a great move, however he re-signed with Sydney on Tuesday night, so that door is no longer open.

Trade period

Melbourne’s trade targets list is only one-name long, and if they can get the deal done, that’s as long as it needs to be. They are waist-deep in the race for Jake Lever.

(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

Lever is someone who the Demons recruiting staff were heavily interested in during his draft year – to the point where they nearly considered taking him as early as the pick No.3 that was ultimately used on Brayshaw.

Melbourne also made a play that year to trade Trengove to Richmond for a first-round pick they would’ve targetted Lever with, but the deal fell through when Trengove failed to pass a physical.

The point is, he’s been hanging around in their head for a while now, and watching him blossom into the most promising young key defender in the comp while with the Crows has only made him more desirable.

They have undoubtedly made a hard play for him, one that has been strong enough even for him to reportedly formally say no to an offer from the reigning premiers said to be worth $800,000 a year.

All the rumour lately is that Lever has decided to play with the Demons in 2018 – though take that with a grain of salt, because the rumours have been wrong more than a few times.

This is pure speculation, but I would wager that Melbourne’s contract offer must be truly enormous – quite possibly something approaching $1 million a year for six or seven years, or even more. Surely that’s the kind of numbers it would take to make him budge.

The trade to get him across from the Crows will also be costly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Demons give up both their first round picks for 2017 and 2018, though they might get a little something back the other way alongside Lever if they do.

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Draft

First three rounds: 10, 28, 46.

The Demons may well wipe themselves out of the draft this year if they do complete a big deal for Jake Lever, but if they don’t land their man, then key defender Aaron Naughton could appeal, but there’s also a wide range of midfield options to look at.

Jack Higgins or Jaidyn Stephenson would both offer a touch of class if they’re still on the board at this point, Darcy Fogarty could also be in the mix, or they could reunite a pair of brothers by picking up Andrew Brayshaw.

Outlook

Missing out on finals this year will burn in Melbourne’s bellies all off-season. They were good enough but let themselves down, they’ll be good enough again in 2018 and I don’t expect them to miss the opportunity twice.

So long as they use their disappointment to inspire themselves, rather than let it drag them down, then a poor finish to 2017 shouldn’t derail them.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

In the longer term, you’d expect their list will be entering its peak in around four years or so, when Max Gawn is nearing 30 and the rest of their young talent are in their prime.

If they’ve made more smart decisions between now and then, they should be in the flag mix for a good stretch in the early and mid-2020s. Michael Hibberd or Neville Jetta might even still be going around and able to join in the fun.

Landing Lever isn’t a necessity to their list build, but it would be one incredibly luxury, and really put them in the race for the title of the most promising young team in the land.

This is obviously a bit of a water-cooler debate, but in my book it would give them both the best young key forward and the best young key defender in the competition, and with so much to like about the midfield playing between them. Yum.

Demons fans may feel stuck in hell right now – oddly appropriate, really – but there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel.