Four rounds of the National Rugby Championship left to play means that we’re edging closer to the pointy end of the season. This is the weekend in which some finals aspirations will be severely dented in some cases, and completely extinguished in others.
Six wins has been about the standard to reach NRC Finals Series in seasons past, in both seven and eight-game seasons, and I still think that will be the case in the nine-game schedule this year.
I do concede, however, that five wins and bonus points might be enough to scrape in if teams keep taking points off each other like they are.
That sounds contradictory, I realise, but I maintain both points are true this year. It’s just been that sort of season. And that means most teams have questions that need answers over the remaining four rounds.
Are Queensland Country finals bound?
Almost certainly, yes. First after five rounds, and with a game in hand over all three of their top four counterparts on 15 points currently.
I can see wins over NSW Country and Greater Sydney in the next fortnight, but the Drua in Fiji will be a big test, and a final home game against Perth could be too, depending on who the Spirit are left with after Alan Jones and his Barbarians finish their Western Force-focussed selection for the match against the Wallabies.
They are the big improvers of the NRC, though, and it’s easy to see in their defence and their work ethic why there’s so much attraction around Brad Thorn coaching the Reds next season.
Which Canberra side will play out the last month?
Will it be the solid-but-unspectacular side that won the first two games? The one who scraped past Brisbane City, but couldn’t against NSW Country? Or will it be the side who tore the Fijian Drua to shreds last Friday night?
I don’t know the answer to this. All three answers are possible. If it’s the first team, they might – and only ‘might’ – make the finals. If it’s the second, they won’t. And if it’s the third, they’ll lift the NRC Toast Rack trophy on November 11. That’s how good that performance was.
Are Perth the sneaky competition favourites?
Yep, I think they are. And probably not that sneaky, either. If they finished with three wins from their last three games – they have the bye this weekend – they’ll qualify top two and take a lot of beating from there.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The aforementioned last game against Queensland Country will be crucial, but as they showed last year, the Spirit won’t be afraid of travelling east both weekend of the finals. I think they’re sitting very nicely, indeed.
Are the Fijian Drua their own worst enemy?
Probably. Discipline was always going to be their undoing, and the judiciary hearing tonight in Sydney could remove two of their best players for the rest of their campaign, with inside centre Eroni Vasiteri and goalkicking fullback Apisalome Waqatabu cited for an alleged eye gouge on Canberra hooker Folau Fainga’a last Friday night.
Fourteen yellow cards have been handed out in the first five rounds, and three of them have been to Drua players. But the Fijians have been the only team to sit down in front of judiciary panels, and all of them have been for rather nasty incidents.
If they can keep their discipline, they’ve already proved they’re one of the best teams in the comp. Their points differential copped a hammering in Canberra last week, but their three opposition teams to come know exactly how dangerous they can be. They can play finals this season, quite easily, if they want to. But it’s up to them.
Greater Sydney Rams: Overachieving or underachieving?
Two wins and two losses might suggest they’re about on par, but given the two wins have been against the NSW-based sides, and the two losses against sides benefitting from Super Rugby programs (if not actual playing experience, in Melbourne’s case), then you might have a different view.
I had concerns about them going into the season, just on the strength of their list, so in many respects, they’re going better than I thought they would. They’re playing good rugby though, and have plenty of attacking strike power when they can create opportunities. My suspicion is this weekend’s ‘Pasifika Day’ at TG Milliner will answer this question.
(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
Are NSW Country on the way back?
I think they might be. They’re a long way from their best, where this time last year they only dropped their first game in Round 6, and they’re the first to admit that.
But they will take a lot out of a scrappy, defence-led win like Monday’s over the Rays in Goulburn. That’s the sort of win that they can use as a benchmark, and if they can light a spark under their attack, they could be the side to upset the top four apple cart. Keep an eye on them.
Are Brisbane City done for 2017?
Nope, not yet. The loss to a pretty hot Perth Spirit side will sting, no doubt, but with a game in hand, they can still finish on nearly as many points as the teams currently in the top four.
City have games against the three NSW sides and Melbourne to come, and with Quade Cooper steering the ship and Karmichael Hunt still rumoured to return, they could win all four of them. Lose this weekend, and they could be done; win, and keep winning, and they could the team approaching in the top four’s rear view in a real hurry.
What of the Sydney Rays and Melbourne?
They’re done. Well, to clarify, Melbourne are definitely done, but the Rays do have a game in hand, and could still get to five wins and 25 points, which might be enough. But there’s a whole lot of coulds and mights in all that, and once you’re talking about mathematical chances, those chances really aren’t that great, are they.
The young Rising side were probably always up against it, given their experience level, but they’ve shown plenty of guts and promise and should learn a lot from their NRC experience, considering I was watching plenty of them in the Super Under-20s back in March and April.
The Rays have endured an injury toll from hell this NRC, and it got worse again on the weekend, with flyhalf Angus Sinclair getting onto the bus in Goulburn wearing a moonboot. They’re a better side than their results show, however, and they could a real danger team over the remaining round for opposing teams.
Round 6 – Pasifika Round
SATURDAY
12pm AEST/1pm AEST: Queensland Country v NSW Country Eagles; Bond University, Gold Coast – Live streamed
3pm AEST: Greater Sydney Rams v Fijian Drua; TG Milliner Oval, Sydney – LIVE on Fox Sports 501
SUNDAY
1pm AEDT: Melbourne Rising v Canberra Vikings; Frankston Park, Melbourne – Live streamed
3pm AEDT: Sydney Rays v Brisbane City; Pittwater Rugby Park – LIVE on Fox Sports 501
Perth Spirit have the bye.
NRC ladder
Queensland Country 15, Canberra 15, Perth 15, Fiji 15;
Greater Sydney 9, NSW Country 8, Brisbane City 8, Sydney 5, Melbourne 4.
Tips
Rocks or diamonds. One correct or three correct. Three again last week, and I’m still waiting for Fiji to show me the “too many points” they were going to have for Canberra!
Saturday should see Queensland Country overcome their southern cousins, and while I’m sticking with Fiji over the Rams, I do it with no confidence whatsoever. Canberra and Brisbane City look to strong on Sunday.
But remember, I’ve gone 3-1-3-1-3 so far, which means I’m due to get…?
I don’t know, either. Enjoy your NRC rugby this weekend.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Good one Thugby... well done.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
A message from the ARU et al for the rugby folks who are going to a NRC game over the weekend. Fans are encouraged to bring their pre-loved rugby gear (boots, balls and playing kits) to matches this weekend, to donate to the Fiji Project, as part of the Pasifika round. The Fiji Project is an organisation that works to help hundreds of Fijian children a chance to chase their rugby dreams. See here for more details. http://www.rugby.com.au/news/2017/10/03/fiji-project-nrc
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
OK, here are the missing troops for this weekend. Fijian Drua: 1. Joeli Veitayaki. 2. Rautnaisa Navuma. 3. Mosese Ducivaki. 4. Peni Naulago. 5. Mataiasi Ucutabua. 6. Samuela Saqiwa. 7. Mosese Voka. 8. Peni Raidre. 9. Seru Cuvuilati. 10. Alvereti Veitakano. 11. Apete Daveta. 12. Eroni Sau. 13. John Stewart. 14. Ifereimi Tovilevu. 15. Apisalome Waqatabu Reserves: 16. Mosese Gavidi. 7. Eroni Mawi. 18. Osea Naganilau. 19. Filimoni Seru. 20. Sakiusa Nadruku. 21. Frank Lomani. 22. Kini Douglas. 23. Kitione Taliga Quite a few changes to Fiji after the mauling by Vikings last week. For starters they have lost their #12 Eroni Vasiteri for the whole competition after suspension for eye gouging and is replaced by Ifereimi Tovilevu. Of the starters, in comes a new #3 and #10 while the #5 and halfback are promoted from the reserves. Queensland Country: 1. Sef Fa'agase. 2. Alex Mafi. 3. Taniela Tupou. 4. Angus Blyth. 5. Harry Hockings. 6. Angus Scott-Young. 7. Liam Wright. 8. Caleb Timu. 9. James Tuttle . 10. Hamish Stewart . 11. Eto Nabuli. 12. Duncan Paia'aua. 13. Izaia Perese. 14. Filipo Daugunu. 15. Patrick James Reserves: 16. Richie Asiata. 17. Efi Ma’afu . 18. Kirwan Sanday. 19. Rob Puli'uvea . 20. Tai Ford. 21. Tate McDermott . 22. Teti Tela. 23. Byron Hutchinson. Only one change from last week's Queensland Country side, with the OC Chris Feauai-Sautia making way for Izaia Perese. A great mix of SR experience and young players coming through. Credit to Reds coach Nick Stiles who introduced the two promising halves J.Tuttle and H.Stewart into Super rugby. Sydney Rays: 1. David Lolohea. 2. James Hilterbrand. 3. Wayne Borsak. 4. Dave McDuling. 5. Angus Ryan. 6. James Brown. 7. Tom Connor. 8. Hugh Sinclair. 9. Jack Grant. 10. Rohan Saifoloi. 11. Stephan van der Walt. 12. Harry Burey. 13. Irae Simone. 14. Rob Buaserau. 15. Josh Turner Reserves: 16. Damien Fitzpatrick. 17. Richie Vaihu. 18. Alex Westgarth. 19. Connor Vest. 20. Alex Perez. 21. Harry Nucifora. 22. Kepu Lokotui. Brisbane City: 1. Tonga Ma’afu . 2. Andrew Ready. 3. Sam Talakai . 4. Dan Gorman. 5. Kane Douglas. 6. Adam Korczyk. 7. Michael Gunn. 8. Reece Hewat. 9. Nick Frisby. 10. Quade Cooper. 11. Ed Fidow. 12. Karmichael Hunt . 13. Dylan Riley. 14. Maaloga Konelio. 15. Jayden Ngaman Reserves: 16. Maile Ngauamo. 17. Feao Fotuaika. 18. Salesi Manu. 19. Jeremiah Lynch 20. Pat Morrey. 21. Moses Sorovi. 22. AJ Alatimu. 23. Junior Laloifi Lots of changes in the Sydney Rays side. J.Hilterbrand and W.Borsak come into the starting front row while the Rays have changed their #9, 10, 11 and 12 from last week. There was also quite a few changes in the pack for Brisbane. Big Sam Talakai returns to the front row while M.Gunn and R.Hewat are promoted from last week's reserves. Brisbane are strengthened with the return of Nick Frisby and K.Hunt into the starting side, while M.Konelio replaces Chris Kuridrani.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
No. 2 games involving the same team. Once handing out the thrashing before being on the receiving end of a similar thrashing. Perhaps get one of the nurses at your assisted living facility to read it out to you next time...
sheek
Roar Guru
One game? Great play, big boy. You really are a dill.
Bakkies
Guest
Muirhead has already played Super Rugby. He was very good for the Brumbies against the Kings and Jaguares away.
Bakkies
Guest
In those recent losses Canberra and Perth fielded more local grade players
Bakkies
Guest
The Currie Cup has seen ridiculous scorelines laden with weak defence. At least the NRC is going down in regards to score lines.
Brett McKay
Expert
Yeah, I've just noticed this myself tonight, TF, and my apologies for inadvertently adding to the confusion. 5pm (4pm kickoff in Qld) is what the Fox live stream page is saying too..
Redsfan1
Guest
Brett, Let's take a look at last weekends results: NSW Country 26 Vs Sydney Ray's 17 (good) Perth Spirit 62 Vs Brisbane 28 Qld Country 54 vs Melbourne 12 Canberra Vikings 66 vs Fiji Drua 5 When you take into account that Brisbane and Fiji have actually been competive in other games that just highlights how poor the defence and attitude is in the competition. Punters aren't going to watch it. I'm not saying it with glee, I would love for a local comp to replace Super Rugby as the path forwards for Australian rugby.
sheek
Roar Guru
Harry, The NRC will never be Australian rugby's answer to Currie Cup. There are many reasons for this I won't go into now because I have annoyed enough people already. Unfortunately I've been w-w-w-wr, not right occasionally! I love teasing these guys, which is wrong I know, but their devotion to NRC is so blind. It's so easy to get under their skin. I shouldn't do it, I know, but heck. Finding that the defence in the NRC was indeed so much worse than M10C, & not about the same as claimed, brought me great satisfaction. Forgive me for celebrating, but the opportunity when discovered, was too good to miss.
sheek
Roar Guru
Scottd, i like that. Obviously when TWAS said above "The defense (sic) is no worse than Mitre Ten Cup" he had fallen down in his own "nothin' but the facts, ma'am" routine.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
These are the teams etc for the Pasifika Round 6 of the NRC, as taken from the ARU website. SATURDAY 7th October. Greater Sydney Rams vs Fijian Drua, , 3pm AEDT Live on FOX SPORTS One 501 and via the FOX SPORTS app. Greater Sydney Rams: 1. Jed Gillespie. 2. Hugh Roach. 3. Robert Lagudi. 4. Sam Thomson. 5. Adrian Hall. 6. Fergus Lee-Warner. 7. David Hickey. 8. Albert Tuisue. 9. Waldo Wessels. 10. Jai Ayoub. 11. Stuart Dunbar. 12. Kevin Fuavao. 13. Dennis Pili-Gaitau. 14. John Grant. 15. Cameron Bailey. Reserves: 16. Mokani Fuavao. 17. Andrew Tuala. 18. Joshua Redfern. 19. Tevita Piukala. 20. Dion Spice. 21. Benjamin Cotton. 22. Kodie Drury-Hawkins. 23. Conor Young. Fijian Drua: With two blokes fronting a judiciary on eye gouge charges, they have held announcing their team till tomorrow. Heaps of changes in the Sydney Rams starting side from their last match (round 4 against Rising). Some changes were injury related but leaves the team very light on big match experience against the high-flying Drua buys. Three forwards are gone (including Jed Holloway) as are Dion Spice (half) and the Big Bopper Taqele Naiyaravoro. Queensland Country vs NSW Country Eagles, 5pm AEDT, Bond University, Gold Coast. Live stream on foxsports.com.au and via the FOX SPORTS app. Queensland Country: Not announced yet. NSW Country Eagles: 1. Paddy Ryan. 2. Brandon P-Amosa. 3. Sam Needs. 4. Ryan McCauley. 5. Tom Staniforth. 6. Rohan O’Regan. 7. Maclean Jones. 8. Pat McCutcheon. 9. Jake Gordon. 10. Tayler Adams. 11. Alex Gibbon. 12. Kyle Godwin. 13. Alex Newsome. 14. Seb Wileman. 15. Andrew Kellaway. Reserves: 16. Connal McInerny. 18. Matt Gibbon. 19. Harry Johnson-Holmes. 20. Tim Buchanan. 21. Lachie Swinton. 21. Nick Kellaway. 22. Tom Hill. 23. Tyson Davis The NSW Eagles have made two changes to the starters from last week's victory against the Rays. Pat McCutcheon replaces Sam Ward and Seb Wileman replaces Henry Clunies-Ross on the wing. There is plenty of Super Rugby experience in this side with a pretty decent forward pack. SUNDAY 8th October. Melbourne Rising vs Canberra Vikings, 1pm AEDT, Frankston Oval, Melbourne Live Stream via foxsports.com.au and the Fox Sports app. Melbourne Rising. 1. Rory O’Connor. 2. Siliva Siliva. 3. Fereti Sa’aga. 4. Jason Havea. 5. Alex Toolis. 6. Rob Leota. 7. Ikapote Tupai. 8. Lopeti Timani. 9. Harrison Goddard. 10. Jack McGregor. 11. Henry Hutchison. 12. Lloyd Johansson. 13. Sione Tuipulotu. 14. Kitione Ratu. 15. Jack Maddocks Reserves: 16. Cameron Mapusua. 17. Tom Moloney. 18. Pome Fa’amausili. 19. Sione Taufa. 20. Mahe Vailanu. 21. Maradona Farao. 22. Hunter Paisami. 23. Angelo Leaupepe Canberra Vikings. 1. Faalelei Sione. 2. Folau Faingaa. 3. Les Leuluailii-Makin. 4. Blake Enever. 5. Rory Arnold. 6. Rob Valetini. 7. Tom Cusack (c). 8. Lolo Faka’osilea. 9. Ryan Lonergan. 10. Wharenui Hawera. 11. Tom Banks. 12. James Dargaville. 13. Andrew Robinson. 14. Ben Johnston. 15. Andrew Muirhead. Reserves: 16. Robbie Abel. 17. Harry Lloyd. 18. Joel Penders. 19. Darcy Swain. 20. Angus Allen. 21. Pedro Rolando. 22. Mack Hansen. 23. Len Ikitau This could be a cracker game as there is a pretty good smattering of SR players in both teams, off-hand I see 11 starters in each team with a fair amount of SR experience. Continuity is not a big word in Melbourne who are playing ducks and drakes with their starting team, every week sees vast changes. Two different locks this week (Jason Havea started at blindside last week) and the return of Lopeti Timani at #8. The backs look stronger with the inclusion of Lloyd Johansson and Henry Hutchison. Canberra must be licking their chops this weekend as their forward pack just got a bemused Rory Arnold into the team and I imagine he is fired up and wanting a big game. Only two changes from the side that belted the Fijian Drua last week. Joel Pender and Darcy Swain move to the bench and Les Leuluailii-Makin and Arnold into the starters. There are some positional changes in the backs but the same players. Sydney Rays vs Brisbane City, 3pm AEDT, Pittwater Park, Sydney LIVE on FOX SPORTS ONE 501 and via the FOX SPORTS app. Sydney Rays: To be Announced Brisbane City: To be Announced
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
G'day Brett, just a wee question regarding the starting time for the Qld Country vs NSW Country match at Bond Uni. My information is from the ARU website which shows 5pm AEDT whereas this article shows different times. I don't know who has the correct information as the ARU are Keystone Kops at times, and to be honest I just don't trust any info from them; but a 5pm start sounds more reasonable on a warm Spring day on the coast. It would also make a great outing for mum n dad with the kids, bangers on a bun for dinner. :)
Harry Jones
Expert
@Sheek I'm a bit confused bc I thought your rugby cause celebre and raison d'être was to build Aussie grassroots so as not to be dependent on SANZAAR devices, and that you mourned the loss of inventive, attacking skills. Isn't this comp the ticket? Won't it take time and love to build an Aussie Currie Cup?
scottd
Guest
Verity-Am looked pretty good at 13 last weekend mate. I was pleasantly surprised as I thought it might have been a weakness. Does he play much club rugby there? I was reminded of Bruce Robertson playing for the AB's 40 years ago. Lots of finesse and sublime pace when opportunity arises. A very different option down the track for the world cup......
Train Without A Station
Guest
And if you use 35+ than 25% of Mitre 10 Cup results apply. Yet do the same to the NRC and it remains at your 45%. Considering the maturity of the NZ competition and the fact their are career players at that level who are 30, it's hardly surprising it can be a bit tighter at times. It's a bit more advanced in professionalism. But hey, since the NRC hasn't caught up straight away let's throw it away for your proposal which won't change the personnel or quality at all...
scottd
Guest
TWAS - have you hijacked Sheeks account? :)
Fionn
Guest
Ah well, we can't expect the NRC to be as professional and successful as Mitre 10 after only a couple of years, can we?
sheek
Roar Guru
Sorry about this Brett, The comparison is actually even worse. In my haste I got the NRC percentage wrong. There have been 18 x 40+ scores out of a possible 40 (2 scores per match). That's a percentage of 45.00%. Getting very close to 50-50. So the NRC's blowout of 40+ scores (45.00%) is nothing close to that of the M10C (16.07%).