With the 2017 NRL season now completed, it’s time to rewind all the way back to the pre-season, and revisit my fearless predictions for the year.
As ever, this is an exercise that’s excruciatingly embarrassing, but nonetheless fun, as we determine just how much rugby league egg I should have on my face.
Let’s rip this off like a Band-Aid.
1. The Sharks won’t make the eight
Well, you could argue that Cronulla were bundled out in the first weekend of the finals series, so it’s not that bad of a prediction. Unfortunately, there’s the pesky data point that they actually finished fifth on the ladder, a full six points ahead of the ninth-placed Dragons, so the prediction was a considerable way off.
There was some slight method to my madness though, as no NRL team has ever won back-to-back premierships, and with the Sharks also losing Michael Ennis and Ben Barba, I thought their premiership hangover might extend all the way to missing out on a finals berth.
However, I was wrong. Very wrong. So we’ll just move along rather sharply, shall we?
2. Des Hasler will depart the Dogs before season’s end
Obviously, I was referring to the rugby league season, not the NRL season. Since we still have the World Cup to go, and Hasler is long departed from the Dogs, I’m giving myself a tick here.
No?
Half a tick then?
Hasler was under pressure before a football was even kicked this year, and after a rocky start, he was all but gone. Yet after a gutsy win against Brisbane in the rain, the Bulldogs announced they were extending Hasler’s contract by a further two years.
It was a decision that looked silly almost straight away, as the Dogs went on to play some of the insipid footy in the club’s proud history, and finished well out of the top eight.
It was clear something was not right at Belmore, and Hasler paid the price once the season ended, with an acrimonious split that looks headed to the courts.
[latest_videos_strip category=”rugby-league” name=”League”]
3. Souths will win the premiership
I’ve been making these season predictions for a few years now, and this may be one of the worst I’ve ever made.
Unlike some other predictions, it’s not just because of how bad it looks in hindsight either; this was a dodgy one the minute it was made.
The Bunnies were listed at $17 to win the premiership, so they were ‘roughies’ anyway, but a spine of Greg Inglis, Adam Reynolds and Robbie Farah should have rivalled almost anyone in the competition. And if Sam Burgess and the rest of the pack could provide some go-forward, my feeling was that Souths would surprise a lot of teams.
Sadly, Inglis was lost for the season to injury, Reynolds battled his own health concerns, the Farah signing was a borderline disaster, and one of rugby league’s great mysteries is how and why Sam Burgess has fallen so far from elite status in the game.
The Bunnies had a poor year, finished 12th on the ladder, and fired their coach. So, needless to say, they did not win the premiership, and this prediction was just a little bit off.
4. Blake Austin will win the Dally M
And you thought the Souths pick was bad?
Goodness gracious me, this is enough to get me fired by The Roar.
To put into context just how bad of a prediction this ended up being, Austin wasn’t even in the top five vote-getters… at his own club!
I thought Austin was a chance because he’d have few teammates stealing points from him. It’s a logic that makes even less sense when you consider Cameron Smith won, and he’s got a load of talented players around him.
There is no defence for this selection. Time to just jog along, nothing to see here.
Photo: NRL images
5. The Knights won’t win the wooden spoon
After a valiant late-season attempt by the Tigers, Titans and Warriors to steal Newcastle’s wooden spoon, the Knights held on to win rugby league’s booby prize, and rob me of the one prediction I was the most bullish about.
The Knights were a better team than their record showed this season, with a number of close losses, and gutsy performances. Though you never want to finish on the bottom of the ladder, fans should be proud of their team and their effort in 2017.
It may not feel like it just yet, but there is plenty of cause for optimism, and with some much-needed talent on the way in 2018, things are looking up for Newcastle.
Sadly, things aren’t quite as bright for my season predictions, as I finish with a paltry half a mark, and even that is extremely generous.
Onwards and upwards! Already looking forward to the 2018 NRL season, and my embarrassing prognostications.
Gus O
Guest
Nice way to find a bit of humour. As for Souths... who thought they wouldn't even make the final?s Austin for Dally M :) You were not alone thinking the Raiders might be more successful in 2017. Plenty of us maybe expected that. Maybe also that St George would be closer to the bottom and not be leading the comp at one point. Maybe that the Gold Coast were on the way up, and that the inclusion of Hayne might help. Maybe that Manly might find the generational transition a bit more of a struggle. Maybe that the bulldogs would score a try... My real ruffy for 2017 was expecting Wests Tigers to break out this year, with their Farah vs Coach squabbles behind them and their "big four" taking control of the team as experienced first graders... you know... what we were promised. Instead, we have Simona, followed by half a season of contract renewal uncertainty, before finally losing three of the four, before punting yet another coach. Another one. This was the year they were supposed to focus on playing footy. This was the dawn of their next premiership window... Inthought they would be the bolter, would easily make the eight. You cant blame Terry Lamb for knocking Ellery Hanley into next week this time. Club management or the playing group can detonate a potential premiership window so very very quickly.
steveng
Roar Rookie
Souths have got allot to prove in 2018. All of us Souths fans have had a ‘gut full’ of expectations. Your ‘3. Souths will win the premiership’ in 2017 was a ‘big joke’ and hopefully 2018 won’t be the same joke. I don’t know and I won’t make any predictions, with the addition of GI and Gagai who knows? Souths will have to make a 360 degree turnaround, if things will improve at Redfern. Go the Rabbits!!!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah true. Shifty was one of those enigma sort of players when on song was sensational but looked like he'd rather have been playing A grade with his mates.
Andrew
Guest
He was a fantastic half back... and then he got a big contract and stopped playing.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Brent Sherwin? He's a far better halfback than Reynolds.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Tactics are probably a bit different. I'm sure you don't deliberately pick longshots when you've got your hard earned on them.
Bill Larkin
Guest
Ryan, it feels like you are almost part of the family.......okay, you actually are, but never mind that. People of Irish heritage never admit to their own mistakes. It's always the English, the grog or the Freemasons. Get with it. Blame others for your miserable predictions. I do give you a big tick for Hasler though. Anyway, my own unsurprising prediction for next year is that the Storm will have a re-building year. Sure, they will win the premiership in a canter, but it can take time to create another world's best halfback. Gus Gould will continue his hold on League Buffoon of the Year. Wooden spoon? Hard to care about teams so far below the Storm, but wouldn't it be great if Manly saluted. My pick. Dally M? Billy my a country mile. Cheers.
Rod
Guest
Gee I wish you were right about the Rabbitohs . 2018 I reckon is going to be tough to predict . But after seeing how the cowboys went with out JT and Scott .With the addition of McLean up next year They are my team to beat. The storm I'd say top 8 for sure. They always prove me wrong each year , so probably top 4. I'm not sure Billy Slater will last another year with that shoulder. But he is truly remarkable so I wouldn't bet against it either. Sharks won't make the eight next year , I reckon Bottom 6. Raiders to make the Eight. Roosters to make 8 again but probably 7th or 8th which I think is about right. I think they did exceptionally well to get to 2nd spot. But there finals performance showed what they were made of .
John
Guest
Switch to whisky this time round and see if that improves predictions. All in all though the only bold prediction that I thought was far fetched was Rabbitohs winning the premiership. The other ones based on last year's form I thought were reasonable. Very unlucky with the Des one.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Haha! Touchè!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
What a lovely contribution! Thank you so much! Good luck to you too!
Stewed Rabbit
Guest
Gees zero out of 5 - no half tick for Hassler either - you said Hasler would leave before seasons end - NRL season. Better luck in 2018
Dutski
Roar Guru
Are you worried that doing it this far out will affect your accuracy? ?
Greg Ambrose
Guest
I made a few predictions before last season and a few in the early rounds. In general I limit my predictions to a few areas where I have a fairly strong conviction and leave the rest alone because they are just a wild guess. As a Manly supporter I went on record as supporting Bozos rebuilding process and said that he would fix the place up. When I heard he was back at the club first thing I predicted is that he would get some big strong forwards. We had a very poor pack a few years back and he has done wonders. Manlys success has always come on the back of great recruitment and the fact that so many Manly fans declared that Bozo was wrecking the place was just astonishing. I thought we would win SOO 3 zip but that was partly based on Penrith , the Raiders and the Sharks players stepping up to the plate. Even so we should have won 2-1 in my opinion. My best prediction for the year was that Penrith would finish ahead of Saints on the ladder when they were miles apart on the ladder with Saints at the top. Like most seasons 2017 was very unpredictable and most of it I didn't see coming. Although I don't make so many predictions I do welcome other thoughts on the year ahead. I do however find fans abusing people like Bozo based on their own appalling grasp of the present and the future to be very weak.
BigJ
Roar Guru
Don't blame the beers Ryan, just admit you had no idea what you were on about, ha ha
Chui
Guest
By David Lord?
BigJ
Roar Guru
I wondered how you got through most of those all Sydney games this year Scott, now I know.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Can't agree with the Canberra prediction Peter. I know I'm biased but the Canberra season to forget was this season. I'd be shocked if they performed as badly next year. Its been well documented how many games they lost by close margins through a combination of bad luck and poor game management plus they had one of the harder draws over the season. The Raiders players and coaching staff will be hurting badly from their underperformance this year and there is just too much on the line for them not to improve next season. Depending on the draw I think they should me aiming for the middle of the 8. It's a given that the Storm will be up there again given Bellamy's ability to get the best out of them on a consistent basis and you would think that the Cowboys have to be even better next year with the reinclusion of Thurston and Scott. And you'd think the Roosters and Broncos would be capable of spots in the 8 based on last season's form and the fact they have Trent Robinson and Wayne Bennett looking after them. But as for the rest anything could happen. I can see at least 6 teams battling it out for the last 4 positions in the 8. All depends on the draw and a bit of luck with injuries. Penrith and the Eels had a pretty easy draw this season so they may find it tougher next year if their draw gets harder.
Scott Pryde
Expert
That's the best time to write though isn't it?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
The Austin pick provides a good lesson for everyone: don't write prediction pieces after 12 beers . . .