It can hardly be classed as the mother of all revelations to suggest England will be worse off without the presence of Ben Stokes.
Take a high-class cricketer out of any team, whoever they are and whatever they do, and the collective, in the majority of circumstances, will inevitably suffer.
Add to the equation the fact the current age is hardly comparable to, say, the late 1980s of Botham/Hadlee/Knan/Dev in the match-winning, seam-bowling allrounder stakes and it is only magnified.
Teams crave the kind of player Stokes is as pick six batsmen and he would be one of them; pick four seamers and he’d be one of them. Factor in a keenness for the fight (ahem) and you have a pretty good deal.
From where I’m sitting, and this probably goes for many, the chances of Stokes taking the field in Brisbane in six weeks’ time are negligible. Push me for an answer and I would say the 2017-18 edition of The Ashes won’t feature the Durham man at all.
I hope he does but that’s with the cricket-only blinkers firmly in place. Given what’s transpired there just doesn’t seem any way he can be selected, police charges or not.
Players have lost their jobs over far less and if nothing else, Stokes’ importance to the England set-up is highlighted by the fact he is now on the naughty step rather than in exile.
Hypothetical, of course, but the fallout would’ve been interesting had a player on the fringes acted in a similar manner.
But it is what it is and for now the tourists’ planning for the Gabba will focus on filling the gaping hole in the middle order/attack.
Is it really, as has already been predicted in some quarters, a case of no Stokes, no chance?
Yes, England’s odds on retaining the urn have lengthened – $4 for a series victory at the time of writing – and rightly so. They wouldn’t have started as favourites even with Stokes but I’m not so sure it will be the clean sweep the more pessimistic/optimistic (geography dictating) believe.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
But that’s somewhere down the line with the no Stokes issue needing to be dealt with in the first instance. So what to do?
A noticeable strength of the England team over the past couple of years has been the lower middle order positions of 6, 7 and 8. These slots are not often filled by players with multiple Test centuries but Stokes, Jonny Bairstow and Moeen Ali have made for a dangerous triumvirate in positions, certainly in the case of the latter two, a touch too low for their ability.
If the desire is to maintain a strong presence from four wickets down then Bairstow and Ali can shift up a place and Ben Foakes come in to keep wicket and bat at 8. This would obviously omit a bowler which leaves another option of Chris Woakes becoming the seam-bowling allrounder but batting at the foot of this particular trio.
The other road to go down could be that of picking a sixth specialist batsman and employing a four-man attack. This approach served them well not too long ago but since Stokes showed up it hasn’t been needed.
Ali works far better when he isn’t required to hold an end up and is used in a more offensive manner yet as part of a four-man unit there is a real danger he could get exposed which is the last thing they will want.
It is likely, certainly at first, that Woakes will fill the vacancy with Ali possibly going up to 6 and Bairstow staying in his current position at 7. This covers the bases of retaining a five-man attack and a batting order that doesn’t stop too early.
Given the hosts’ approach in the first Test, with a few predictable ‘enforcer’ articles already penned, will be more foot to the floor then ease through the gears, a lengthening of the tail won’t even be contemplated, especially given what occurred four years ago when Mitchell Johnson hit his straps.
And with five bowlers looking like a necessity, the Woakes option is the only one which fits this particular bill.
England do have a chance in the series, albeit one less than a few weeks ago, but an uphill task – and this isn’t taking into account the dismal record at the Gabba – has been made significantly more challenging.
I hope you’re ready for it Chris.
James
Guest
Stop saying that Smith is a young captain and needs to learn. The guy has been captain for two and a half years now, he has captained in 26 tests; Mark Taylor was only captain for 50, Clarke for 47. At Adelaide he will equal Richie Benaud and Kim Hughes, in Melbourne Ian Chappell, at the end of ashes he will be Australias 8th most experienced test captain. Yes captains are always learning but Smith has been captain long enough for no one to use inexperience as an excuse.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
Well pointed out, Chris. Our batsmen didn't quite match the South Africans last summer thanks to the all too regular loss of wickets in bundles and a lost series resulted.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
Technically, 4 of Root's test tons have been outside England. His 134 against us in 2015 was in Wales. However. its a very good point you raise. The careers of Smith, Kohli, Williamson and Root are all closely aligned. Currently, they have all played a similar number of tests, ranging between 56 and 61. Both Williamson and Kohli performed well when they toured here, although the pitches were pretty flat those summers. Root's away from home century percentage is well down on the others. Smith has 10 home and 10 away. Both Kohli and Williamson have 7 home and 10 away and as you say Root has 10 home and only 3 away from familiar conditions. This Ashes series will be his greatest test and it will be interesting to see whether he gains ground on Steve Smith as the best of this big 4. He is a better and more mature player than he was in 2013 and i am keen to see how he handles some bouncy pitches. I assume Cricket Australia will allow curators to prepare such surfaces. If not, we may as well play our home tests on concrete wickets. After Adelaide last summer, that's probably been considered...
DavSA
Guest
Ha Ha , the English are just so.......polite . Here in South Africa we also walk out straight to the pub if our side is being pasted.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
As Jeffrey said, those two series were both on pretty flat pitches, but also remember that India and NZ both lost those series. So suggesting that the key to England winning is Joe Root replicating the sorts of tours those two had last time is to ignore the fact that those teams lost. For the NZ tour, Warner scored almost 600 runs at an average of 99 and Khawaja, who played just 2 of the 3 tests, averaged 150. For the India tour, Smith scored 769 runs at 128. So in both those cases, while they had awesome results themselves, in both cases there was at least one Aussie batsman who did even better than them, and overall Australia came out on top.
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
That will depend on the pitches. When Kohli and Williamson were here we served up some of the flattest roads I have ever seen. All the bowlers struggled in those two series (the WACA pitch for the NZ test was a disgrace and the top order batsmen feasted on it). When England were here last the pitches had more pace and bounce and the England batsmen struggled. If it's the same this time Root will do very well to emulate Kohli and Williamson.
Targa
Guest
The key player is Root. Kohli and Williamson both had Bradmanesque tours of Australia the last time they came to Australia. Can Root do the same and prove he belongs in the big 4? He's scored 13 test centuries, but only 3 have been outside England.
JamesH
Roar Guru
No, two years ago. And it's been four years since they toured here for tests.
Minor Kampf
Guest
England only hang around to drink beer and sing. they dont even notice the cricket going on around them
Jake
Guest
No, England do not obviously have a very strong bowling line up. It is much weaker than SA and Pakistan who were here last summer. Weaker than the kiwis as well. Stronger than India (who isn't?) who failed in 3 out of 5 tests to take 20 oz wickets. On par with the West Indies.
Jake
Guest
5-0 with Stokes. 5-0 without Stokes.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
Without Stokes the English side is certainly going to be weakened, but I feel there are more surprises in store in the coming Ashes this Summer. There could be an upset, who knows?
Custard Cream
Roar Rookie
Win, lose or draw, England supporters stick around, unlike the fanatical Australians who left MCG deserted in 2010 when things weren't going their way.
Custard Cream
Roar Rookie
Win, lose or draw, England supporters stick around, unlike the fanatical Australians who left MCG deserted in 2010 when things weren't going their way.
Mitcher
Guest
Neil's Back.
Mitcher
Guest
Hi
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
In some ways having Ali in the side already does make it a bit of an easier decision. They will almost certainly replace Stokes with a bowler, someone like Woakes who's a bowler who can also hold the bat, and the batting lineup will be a little bit weaker, but that could be made up for by the bowling being a bit stronger. But we'll see. As you pointed out, in Australia, England were never going to be favourites coming in anyway, even with Stokes. I suppose, in recent times they've made up for having some serious holes in their top 5 by having that strong 6-8. Weakening that really does require someone to stand up and fill in those top order batting spots better than has happened to this point. It will be an interesting series, because we have two very flawed sides, both with some great strengths, but also both with some significant weaknesses.
Shane Warner
Guest
Stokes' only contribution with the bat was a century in perth in a losing cause. His bowling would be the biggest thing they'd miss this time, in my opinion.
Jameswm
Guest
But are you going to win oh former average underweight back rower?
DavSA
Guest
It would be surprising if he tours and if not would be a big loss but England remain a good team with or without particularly in batting depth .A big feature of Englands make up of late has been Moeen Ali but will he as be effective in Aussie conditions? I don't think so.....This would amplify the loss of Stokes bowling input. Another problem for England is the openers slot . So Australia will target early inroads .The major problem for Australia in this series is ....Which team is going to pitch up. If they play like they did in the first 2 tests against South Africa then .......