The ridiculously unfair 2018 NRL draw needs to be redone

Tim, sorry for the late posting, but wanted to thank you for the time and effort put in on this. Raises some very valid questions backed by data. I have occassionally been called upon to teach maths and stats at the tertiary level, and if this summary was submitted to me, I would post it online for my students as an excellent example of how to summarise/explain research/stats findings.

I understand that. I can only speak from my personal experience. If you're asking for full list of TPAs for each player, that'll never happen for privacy reasons but all of them do have to be registered with the NRL. I do agree with this policy, not for the sake of this discussion as I've written this before. I believe a TPA value, high or Low is not our business as with the actual contract cap figures. The only reason we have an indication of cap wages is because of player manager/media relationships. it would only cause undue pressure and speculation. Similar to if you published your wages, we would all have an opinion on whether you are worth it or not. Your value is what someone is willing to pay and unless you are part of that conversation, it is not our business.

I cannot answer that I'm sorry. I've tried looking on the NRL site and management company sites for templates without success. They only reference some rules around TPAs. Maybe ask a player manager you may know. From my experience we registered interest with the Broncos and were directed to several sports management agencies, organsied a deal through them and paid the player directly and monthly. Couldn't use the Broncos brand or reference the Broncos on print marketing material. We had rights to use the players image and have them show up to a limited number of company events. As an aside, we had Laurie Lawrence as a spokes person prior and while much more expensive, he had less restrictions and far less exposure as this was mid 2000s. My god that man could talk. His speeches would have big corporates eating out of his hand.

OK, sry, the ? threw me from your previous comment. Hayne did get picked on profile and that assists my point with regard to some players being a brand unto themselves, irrespective of FTA games of which the Titans had very little. To tim and Tim's "Killer Point" who is more recognisable to promote a car yard Ash Taylor or Tautau Moga? Both young players with amazing potential but never rep'd. One gets little FTA games and the other is every other Friday night. (I didn't use Hayne due to his extreme profile) The Scott Prince example is a little skewed IMO. He was a very good player in a poor team good up there. I lived up there during his time (always a Bronco but so was 50% of the crowd in those days) He left the Cowboys for the Broncos, most likely for money and profile but injuries and a badly broken leg saw him leave and thrive at Wests. Exposure at that very good WT team saw him rep for Qld and is that your point - it's easier to be recognised in better teams? FTA exposure is a small part of marketability. Eg, Moses and Wests Tigers got better FTA coverage than their performances should warrant. Always recognised as a player with potential but now with a successful Eels team (and over-perorming Lebanon team) he will be well within the discussion for NSW in 2018.

Hi Tim, Thanks for the measured and thoughtful response. 1. Agree. My perception was that the Roosters were given a golden run in 2017 also. I have a few hours to spare in an airport later so will go through it in some more detail. 2. Agree to an extent. All teams are playing under the same rules and led by the same administration (NRL HQ). NRL HQ doesn't seem to be giving them a level playing field with issues like the draw, however, some club administrators are simply basket cases who aren't doing themselves, their fans, their players and coaching staff any favours. The Tigers and Titans are great examples. 3. Great question. A lot of it is probably luck. For instance, Newcastle and Brisbane had absolute superstars who all happened to grow up playing together, similar to what the Storm have had for the past decade. They had smart enough recruiters, coaches and managers who were able to keep them together for a decent period of time to create success. Success breeds success, on and off the field. Who wouldn't want to play with Joey Johns or Alfie Langer? Who wouldn't pay to watch them? 4. Storm administration = bad. I'm sure most clubs try to bend the rules as much as possible around TPAs and so forth (see the Panthers current Maloney fiasco), but the Storm were straight up cheating. 5. Agree to an extent. I do worry that the competition is heading towards something like the EPL where the rich teams are the only ones with any chance of succeeding. However, with so many different teams having won the premiership over the last 20 years, and no teams going back to back, it does look like the salary cap wins in the end. I've always thought when a player says "I was really impressed with their facilities", that was akin to any other cliché you hear from them after the game. You're certainly closer to the players than me though, so I'll take your word for it. Always enjoy your stuff mate and looking forward to 2018. Up the mighty Broncos (who are literally no chance this year).

Nat, I don't believe Hayne should of been picked for NSW? He was picked on reputation and Media Hype after returning a shadow of himself. Crocker or Bird were better option but they don't get the exposure Hayne gets. For the record Scott Prince said he had a better chance of playing rep football and getting more money leaving the Cowboys and playing for the Broncos. At that time the Cowboys hadn't played a FTA game in their first 10 years in the Comp. Justin Hodges had a similar thoughts.

So you disagree with the Hayne example Rob? Please offer your thoughts as to why he deserved that spot ahead of any number of centers who were in form. In hindsight, do you think he filled the role successfully? Tim, I have offered my personal experience with TPAs in a post below. TPAs and FTA games have a very tenuous link with only a single digit % as the example. However, I do appreciate this was a throw away line, not conclusive evidence to support the whole.

So that's why you put these throw away lines in your analysis, you really have no idea how they work. Speculative opinion at best. Tim,my name is Nat, electrician turned share trader so it is my job analyzing trends within the ASX and commodities markets and in the majority I have had a healthy respect for your pre-game analysis. I also hold an advisory/board position with an organisation that has had TPA with (now Ex) Brisbane Broncos player/s so I have had the opportunity to appreciate the intricacies of how they work, what the sponsor is/not allowed to promote where, when and how. We have inquired about corporate sponsorship but it was prohibitively expensive* Maybe, like you, I like numbers because they don't lie but they can be manipulated to suit an argument. At first glance it appeared the analysis was flawed in many respects and the longer this has gone on it has become far more obvious that it really is an opinion piece, based on assumptions, supported by contrived stats. This last statement confirms as such. 2 days ago you said to AJ Mithen (to paraphrase) that other media outlets have published one aspect or another and you didn't know why no one has put all this together. Further, you said to The Barry, this is some of your "best and most important work" With all due respect it is not. Even if it was purely about Fairness and taking all commercial (ratings) considerations away, this entire piece is a subjective opinion at best. As this is The Roar, that's perfectly OK but please hang your hat on this being a factual piece of analysis and personally criticise everyone who disagrees. You make some fair points that along with most, I've agreed with. FTA games and Commercial sponsors - Yes! That's marketing, hence the * because SMEs are effectively priced out of it. TPAs and FTA games - tenous at best with maybe 1% as an example. You've now stated you have no idea how they work so when you dismissed my initial comment with a sarcastic retort, you were in fact being an ill informed bully using a position of strength, EXPERT, in place of actual knowledge. Further, you dismiss my other questions as an opinion, yours are facts and I must be a Roosters supporter. Hardly an expert reply from someone with a superior factual position. Are there inconsistencies in the draw, absolutely. Do they offer a benefit to some clubs, potentially. Have you made a case of Fairness that allows for some clubs to consistently be successful while holding others down - NOT A CHANCE. Upon your argument falling apart, you've challenged others to devise a another, fairer draw- that's impossible because there are extenuating club and commercial considerations and as such will never be able to please every supporter but you can. Instead of being a defensive naysayer, use your statistical abilities to offer up a fairer draw. No doubt you won't please everyone but that has a far better chance of being THE most important piece of work. Rugby League is a business and in my personal business experience change is effected by those who see a problem from a fresh set of eyes AND offer a solution. It will not change 2018 because that is set but it just may gain the traction on The Roar then commercial media to affect future change. You have the skills, the platform and the industry contacts. That will be something to hang your hat on.

Good analysis Tim, I think though it needs to be broken into two distinct categories. Commercial & Playing. The Commercial reality is a combination of Free to Air games and crowd favourable timeslots. For example thursday night is great for free to air exposure but kills your crowds meaning tickets sales are down and game day experience for fans is not favourable. 6pm friday with the expection of the Warriors home games is a double negative with crowds and no FTA exposure whilst Sunday 4pm games on Channel 9 are great for both FTA and crowds. These things affect the long term commercial reality of your club, but not your week to week ability to win games in a given season. Playing is a combination of the other things you mention plus I think travel is an unavoidable factor too that disadvantages some teams.

Nat, I would suggest Hayne was picked for his profile over ability?