The Sea Eagles were one of the surprise packets of 2017. After a couple of seasons out of the finals, a rejuvenated line-up jagged sixth spot on the ladder.
Daly Cherry-Evans was close to his best. Tom Trbojevic continued his impressive rise. His brother, Jake, did much the same as he earned his Origin debut.
Outside of their stars though, Trent Barrett managed to get his rag-tag support cast firing, particularly in attack.
On their day they could turn it on anywhere and really put a team to the sword – as evidenced by their 17-point win over the premiers, Cronulla.
Conversely, they could look sluggish and fragile, losing touch with some important matches.
Their exit from 2017 came in Week 1 of the finals, at the hands of the Panthers. After totally outclassing the Panthers in Round 26 at Brookvale, with a fast start and some enterprising play, they lacked the same style a week later at Allianz Stadium.
Some errors crept into their game, and they lacked the polish to put Penrith away, bombing a couple of opportunities.
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How does their squad rate?
Manly have a bit of a money-ball approach to their team under Barrett – it was about getting value for money out of each member of the team in 2017.
It has been well documented the impact Blake Green had, the Sea Eagles struggling for 2016 without a genuine five-eighth, but the likes of Api Koroisau, Curtis Sironnen, Marty Taupau and Akuila Uate hit the best form they have seen in some time.
Their squad is mostly settled, with no big names to rely on to improve in 2018 – although Joel Thompson is a very handy pick-up from the Dragons.
Green is their biggest loss, being replaced by Lachlan Croker from Canberra.
Their backs have some real class. Tom Trbojevic was one of the form fullbacks of last season, topping Billy Slater in tries, try assists, line-break assists and line-breaks. Uate and Jorge Tafua, who returns from injury, are two of the most damaging wingers on their day, capable of making some big metres, but also finishing nicely.
Dylan Walker will take one centre spot when he returns from injury, hoping to build on a solid 2017, as Brian Kelly and Matthew Wright compete for the other spot.
Cherry-Evans’ form had him mentioned in regards to Origin, but how much of that was facilitated by Green? Green had five 40-20s for the season, as his tactical kicking game complemented Cherry-Evans nicely.
Croker and Jackson Hastings are the men to pick from going into 2018, with their mandate to take control and take pressure off DCE.
The pack isn’t one to write off either. They have some real aggression in the front row in Taupau and Darcy Lussick, with value and size coming off the bench in Lloyd Perret and Addin Fonua-Blake.
Curtis Sironnen looked close to his best last season, while Jake Trbojevic was good enough to earn an Origin jersey and the vice-captaincy. Koroisau was more of a utility to start his career, used sporadically and off the bench, but he seems to have found his home at 9 – although can be a bit of a target in defence.
Goal-kicking was an issue at times last year – Wright was their best option, but is not necessarily guaranteed a spot in the team. Aside from that and the question at five-eighth, hooker is the main concern if Koroisau goes down.
Ins
Jack Gosiewski (Rabbitohs), Toafofoa Sipley (Warriors – 2019), Lachlan Croker (Raiders – 2018), Joel Thompson (Dragons – 2019)
Outs
Pita Godinet (Wests Tigers), Blake Green (Warriors), Brenton Lawrence (retired), Jesse Martin (Rabbitohs), Steve Matai (retired), Brett Stewart (retired), Billy Bainbridge, Jarrad Kennedy, Joey Lussick (released)
AAP Image/Action Photographics, Grant Trouville
Key man
Daly Cherry-Evans showed he could yet return to the Origin fray after a promising 2017. However, with Green having departed for the Warriors, Cherry-Evans has to maintain his form for Manly to be a chance of making the finals.
As their highest paid player, he has to be the most influential on the field, whoever he has playing next to him.
DCE has the support he needs around him in the likes of Trbojevic and Koroisau, and they make up a strong spine. But in the big games, he needs to put his hand up. While he wasn’t poor by any means against the Panthers in the finals, he wasn’t front and centre.
While his haul of 19 try assists for the season was impressive, he had nine of them over three games. The other ten were over another 22 games.
Cherry-Evans needs to become the leader and influential player that his wage demands. The Sea Eagles put plenty into retaining him, and while 2017 was solid, 2018 needs to be better.
Where do they need to improve?
Defence wins premierships and while Manly were ranked third in attack last campaign, they were eleventh in defence – a result of poor attitude and lack of mental toughness.
Their big wins over the Sharks and Cowboys, both away from home, as well as getting over the second-placed Roosters twice are indications of what Manly could do.
But they could also clock off.
In consecutive weeks they had 40 and 52 points put on them by the Storm and Dragons respectively. In the last four weeks of the regular season, they lost to the lowly Tigers and Bulldogs, putting their finals spot in jeopardy.
This inconsistency demonstrates that they probably haven’t learnt to really get in the arm wrestle and grind out a win. If they are on in attack they can mix it with the best, but if they aren’t, they don’t seem to be able to stop the rot.
They were ranked in the top three for missed tackles, and the bottom three for tackle efficiency. Both worrying stats for a team.
If there are two players that personify these defensive woes, its Koroisau and Walker. Api missed an average of around five tackles a game. While he has found a home at hooker for now, the target he had on him for his size in defence will continue to be exploited. Whatever he might add out in attack, he has to be aiming to match with his defence.
Walker missed more tackles than he made in the final fixture against Penrith. He had plenty to say that night and scored the first try, but his efforts in defence just weren’t good enough. He seemed much more concerned with spraying the opposition than getting his head into the game.
AAP Image/Paul Miller
Top five clashes
Round 2: Sea Eagles versus Eels, Lottoland, March 18
Fibros versus Silvertails. The Eels won their only clash last season, in Round 1, but plenty has happened since then. A sunny arvo on the Brooky hill, traditional rivals and the Sea Eagles’ first home game.
Round 4: Sea Eagles versus Raiders, Lottoland, March 31
Manly won both match-ups last year in golden point, each being games of spite and sledging.
The Raiders weren’t far off the finals, or from beating Manly. Will the Sea Eagles keep their run of close wins coming or will the Raiders strike back?
Round 16: Sea Eagles versus Panthers, Lottoland, June 30
All three games between these two clubs last year had big talking points. Many’s exit in Week 1 of the finals against the Panthers will still be fresh in the minds of both players and fans when the two sides meet in June.
Round 21: Sharks versus Sea Eagles, Southern Cross Group Stadium, August 5
It was the win that stamped Manly as genuine contenders last season, travelling to Cronulla to roll the premiers.
Round 25: Broncos versus Sea Eagles, Suncorp Stadium, September 2
The Sea Eagles journey to the cauldron for the second time in 2018 for the final round of the season. How often does it come down to the final round for the eight to take shape? Will Manly again be looking for a win to play finals football?
How will they go?
I put down 2017 for the Eagles as a bit of an anomaly. They flew under the radar for a long time, not really considered a contender by many for a finals spot until late in the season.
I tend to wonder if opposition teams treated them with the same respect they did others, especially early on.
Their propensity to clock off and lose some games by big margins, or to lowly teams, is a concern. The NRL is a game of inches and there might only be a couple of win or losses that define your season.
Manly can’t get much better for 2018. The same defensive deficiencies linger. A small hooker, some really flaky outside backs, they couldn’t seem to improve their defence as the season wore on, saving some of their worst performances for the last five weeks or so.
Similarly, their attack was on fire at times last year, but teams will be more alert to what they bring to the table. Tom Trbojevic will continue to entertain from fullback.
Their finishing spot lands in the lap of Cherry-Evans. He was over-hyped last year with the rest of the spine also providing plenty in attack. When they needed him most late in the season, his influence fell away.
He has only ever looked the goods when he has a good team around him. The Sea Eagles haven’t won a finals game since 2013, back when he was supported by the likes of Brett Stewart, Kieran Foran and Matt Ballin.
The Sea Eagles will struggle without an adequate halves partner for their number seven. Unless Lachlan Croker or Jackson Hastings can step up, there won’t be as much joy for Manly in 2018.
They will hang in, and get some wins on the board, but ultimately they won’t make the finals.
Predicted finish
11th
The Barry
Roar Guru
Except for Bearfax !!! ...nice summary.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Fair enough Greg But the talk about how good Green was and how he was buy of the year was definitely around last year from Manly fans. Can't find any Manly fans admitting to it now.
Bearfax
Roar Guru
I think what Green brought to the position at Manly was a steadying influence. He was consistent and gave the backs good service. His kicking game was exceptional and he ensured most of the focus of attention was not all on DCE. However he's not a great defender, is fairly pedestrian in pace and is not a power player. He's not going make great individual plays. He's a player who does his job professionally and makes the right calls by controlling the play, which takes a lot of pressure of DCE. The question is what will Croker offer to the team. Things we know are that he is a strong unit and wont be pushed around. He's quicker than Green and more likely to be individuality more dangerous. I suspect he's a better defender. He's also got a good long kicking game. Question is will he be an effective link to the backs, like Green was. Will he be a steadying influence like Green was. Will he make the right calls consistently like Green did. And will his kicking game, especially near the opposition try line bringing about repeat sets and pin point accuracy, be as effective. Manly dont want just a clever runner at 5/8. Didnt work with Walker, Cullen and so far Hastings, all clever individualists. The reason Manly's 3/4 and full back made so many tries last year was a lot because of Green's good clean service and an excellent kicking game. That is where Green was effective. Hopefully Croker has those skills and if so he will be superior to Green in other areas.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Lawrence retired after he'd signed with the Titans.
Tom G
Guest
By the way Brenton Lawrence's retirement will come as a big surprise to the Titans and Joey Lussicks release will be big news to him and the reserve grade coach who has named him in the trial against Wyong this weekend.
Greg Ambrose
Guest
DCE's stats from 2017 are at least as good as Cronk's if not better . The three players you say he needs to duplicate are playing in the top teams and of course life is easier. When DCE was in one of the top teams his influence was dominant. He was leading Manly to important wins over Thurston on a regular basis. Thurston is clearly a champion but he has led the Cows to one title in a long career just like DCE in a much shorter career. After all the criticism Api got from his own fans in 16 I watched him very closely in 17 and a charging missed tackle is a great result if it halves the attackers speed and he is then mauled by the back up troops. It's not conventional logic but I don't care. A charging missed tackle which disables an attacker can be a lot more effective than not getting involved at all. The way it would be rendered a bad idea is if the one out hit up isn't one out at all and he passes it. I would imagine Barrett would change his style in that case.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
A team with Cherry Evans and the Trbojevic brothers should win about 50% of their games. 11th is way too low. Green will be a big loss, played a lot ore first receiver last season, giving Cherry Evans space to move out wider No depth though
Greg Ambrose
Guest
I didn't say much about Green last year TB because I didn't rate him as more than an average 1st grade player. That's not a harsh opinion it's just what I thought. I haven't changed my opinion. The Storm have plenty of these players pass thru their system and they are happy to pass them on when someone wants to pay bigger dollars.
Tom G
Guest
Another pre season and another Manly side written off despite a pretty good season last year.. been there, done that and we all have the T Shirt at Brookie
The Barry
Roar Guru
Dogs dropped from 6th to 11th last year without losing any players. Raiders dropped from 2nd to 10th without really losing any players. It happens. The spots from 5th through to 12th or so will be very tight.
Bearfax
Roar Guru
Like Newcastle, Manly have been rebuilding and though they havent bought big names (neither does Melbourne mind you and look at them), they have bought on potential. Suggesting Manly havent improved their stocks from last year, is not looking closely enough. Remember they won the U20s and several of those kids are already ear marked for bigger things. Gosiewski, Croker and Kelly are on Fittler's Blues radar. Fainu, Tom Wright and Anderson are three kids who will surprise. But most importantly the players in first grade are all generally young and on the rise such as Sironen, Fonua-Blake, Perrett, Lane, Koroisau, some already being spoken of as Blues possibles. The Trbojevic brothers will dominate with the support of Kaupau and Thompson. And then there's DCE and with two juggernauts on the wing, they have a potential team that could get to between 3-6. Manly has lost only one significant player in Green. If Croker displays the potential many think he has, that position will possibly be strengthened, because he's faster and stronger than Green, has a good kicking game, good passing game and is a better defender. Manly have increased their back up, and if you had watched the trial game against Cronulla you would have seen a side without ten of their first grade squad and nine players from the U20s comp from last year. Yet they gave a Cronulla side with more first graders a scare. Under-estimate this side and there's is egg en route.
Joe
Roar Rookie
First issue Manly has is replacing Green. Croker/Hastings have to do a decent job of that. Also assume DCE lifts his game because he really does want to play Origin now that Thurston/Cronk have left. If he does get picked that means Manly will possibly be without 3 or 4 their best players come Origin. DCE/Turbo bros and possibly Api which means there might be a run of losses around Origin time and after. Second main issue is consistency. At their best last year they looked like top four material but then follow that up with a bottom four performance. Round 26 into first week finals against the same opposition the Panthers was a good and final example of that. Third issue is depth where once they lost some frontline players the team went downhill pretty quickly. I don't think that has been addressed this year and they'll face the same issues. I think this is more to do with salary cap issues that they are currently facing as I would have thought they'd have a lot of cap space after Matai/Snake and Green were no longer on the books. Overall I think they will pretty much be in the same position as last year and whether they get into the eight will largely depend on injuries. Their first choice team can get there but if they have injury issues and if Origin takes too much out of them they will just miss the eight.
Malo
Guest
Top 4 for sure
uglykiwi
Roar Pro
I did my form and I always try and find a roughie for the WS. Manly is that team. No recruitment over the summer; I don't think you can improve without this. Trbojevic brothers.... if they get injured. bye bye. Green was a massive loss. I have never seen Hastings play a decent game. So no back up to the halves (rookie 5/8) Forwards: decent; that's about how you would describe them. Wright is your back up for the outside backs... enough said. Will not make 8; just where do they finish 9th-16th; I have them 16th.
BA Sports
Guest
*I meant that could easily be a 1-6 run mid season, sorry.
BA Sports
Guest
Manly start the season with a reasonable draw and should be at least 5-1 through six games. After that they go Eels - away Knights - home Roosters - away Brisbane - away (home game at Suncorp) Melbourne - away Raiders - away Cowboys - home That could easily be a 1-5 run. You are now looking at being about 6-6, going into the final stretch when you have to play the Roosters and the Storm again as well as teams like Penrith, Sharks, Bulldogs and Dragons which could all be fighting for that 7th and 8th spot.
Paul
Roar Guru
There are a lot of "ifs" Manly has to address this year if they are going to finish higher than Jack's predicted 11th They need their best side on the field for the bulk of the season, simply because they don't seem to have the depth of other sides Their defence obviously needs to step up and they need to win the games at sides ranked below them. Again, common sense, but they struggled mightily last year as Jack pointed out. They can't afford any more off field dramas that have hurt the Club in recent years. As a non-Manly supporter, I'm hoping they'll have a "peaceful" 2018 because if they're going well, it gives plenty of people a side to hate!
madmax
Guest
No rational thought.......the same was written last year & they came 6th. To be honest the same is written every year yet they seem to always spoil everyone's party. Yes I support them & no it's not blind love. If you honestly think they will suddenly drop 5 places to 11th then it must be DCE that's left for the Warriors not Green.
Albo
Guest
I am no great Manly fan, but I agree with you Louis. Whilst they had some deficiencies last year particularly in defence, they also regularly displayed some very positive attacking capabilities. They won't have to improve their defensive consistency too much to again be in line for a spot in the 8. Joel Thompson improves that already. I just can't see a team that boasts the talents of the Turbo twins, DCE & Marty Taupau as being forecast to finish 11th , even if there are question marks over some of their players ? They do need a couple of players to practise their goal kicking though !
Haradasun
Guest
I think Croker can step up. He has plenty of ability. I dont consider blake green a massive loss. He was solid and a good foil for DCE his role was to control middle 3rd of field and had a solid short kicking game but was no game breaker by any stretch. Can't find the stats to back it up, but my sense from last year was manly conceded a bit up the middle especially by the bigger teams, I think their younger forwards will have matured esp fanua blake. Have more depth this year as well. Barring injury I cant see them going backwards