Well here we are. With part 1 and part 2 covering teams 9 through 16, it’s time jump into the top eight.
8. Gold Coast Titans
In 2017, the Titans had a selection of issues to deal with – a debilitating and on-going injury crisis, the sacking of the head coach, their co-captain getting caught in a drugs bust and being stood down, insinuations of player revolt, constant contract speculation, uncertainty about future ownership of the club, and Jaryd Hayne. Any one of which would be an understandable excuse for a poor season.
Malcontent over the handling of many of the issues threatened to spill into this year, though new coach Garth Brennan seems to have calmed things down, as demonstrated by the retention of Ash Taylor (who was rumoured to have a foot out the door) and the ability to attract several new faces.
Still containing a core of players that pushed their way into the top eight in 2016 despite being the shortest priced pre-season favourites for the wooden spoon in NRL history, the club showed glimpses of their potential last campaign by defeating the defending premiers twice and even became one of only four teams able to claim the highly prized scalp of Melbourne.
The addition of Bryce Cartwright will only add to their attacking options, while Michael Gordon will bring some needed experience.
A relatively favourable start to the season will certainly help, while the upcoming Commonwealth Games should take some of the pressure off by attracting the lion’s share of local attention, allowing them to go about their business without too many distractions.
Origin should be comparatively kind to their roster and a good portion of their opponents over the period can expect to be heavily impacted by state selections. To top it off, their post-Origin draw offers them a great opportunity to kickoff a finals charge before having to face two of the top teams in the last two rounds.
Now, this all sounds positive, but bear in mind that I have them just scraping into the eight, so it’s not like I expect them to blow the competition apart. But in a squad with plenty of attacking potential, I’m predicting them to make use of the opportunities presented, even if I can’t necessarily see them pushing deep into the finals.
7. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles of 2017 outperformed even the most optimistic pre-season forecast, and did so with more than a million dollars sitting on the sideline.
Yet, despite their success, they’ve again been widely tipped to struggle this season, with the salary cap investigation engulfing the club being the main culprit. But if there’s one thing that galvanises a Manly side it’s a club scandal.
While the loss of Blake Green is a step back, with names like Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic in the spine, you can’t write them off. Proof of the spine’s influence can be found in their 2017 stats, where they placed in the top two teams for weighted kicks, forced drop-outs, tries per game and try assists.
With a legitimate opportunity to secure the Queensland halfback role, expect DCE to build on last year, where he was equal fourth for try assists despite being the busiest half defensively in the league by a fair margin.
The club’s off-season recruits might garner a limp reaction, but Trent Barrett’s ability to get the best out of last year’s underwhelming recruitments suggests they may bring more value then assumed.
Their draw should give them the edge over sides of similar strength – their hardest match-ups being grouped together, allowing them opportunities for several strong runs and a comparatively easy start to the season, which should compensate for the loss of Dylan Walker for the opening rounds. Origin may hit them hard, though Manly does have a history of being overlooked for selection and their draw is fairly forgiving.
Their charge to the finals won’t be a cakewalk, but they will only play two rounds against teams from last year’s top four.
Overall they’ve got the potential to be real contenders, though consistency and an apparent lack of depth may see them drop a spot from last year.
AAP Image/Lukas Coch
6. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
With a gameplan a couple years past its use by date and some of their most influential players getting shopped around like cattle, it’s no surprise the Bulldogs looked unmotivated last season.
However, on the back of a new coach promising more freedom in attack, a new board and the Aaron Woods-David Klemmer love in, the Doggies will be out to make the most of their fresh start.
Despite losing a couple of favourites, they still retain a playing group boasting plenty of state and international rep experience. Freed from a gameplan that seemed to suffocate any creativity in attack and behind a platform laid by the Australian front row combination, the Dogs should be afforded more opportunities on the offence while still being able to fall back on their already reliable defence.
While there has been some understandable doubt over whether Kieran Foran will bounce back after two forgettable years, having Moses Mbye chiming in as a third playmaker from fullback should take some of the pressure off as he adjusts to his new duties.
The pre-Origin draw will be a baptism of fire for the franchise, featuring four matches against last year’s top three teams, as well as one against grand finalists the Cowboys in their opening nine games. If they can snag a win or two over this period, they will find themselves in a good position to climb the ladder as their draw eases substantially toward the back end of the year.
Origin is likely put a large dent in their forward pack, though enough of their opposition over this period should be similarly depleted that it won’t derail their season.
Expect a slow start, but with an easing draw they should fly under the radar for much of the season with the experience of their roster getting them over the line in enough games to see them reach the top eight.
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So there you have it, my predictions for what is likely to be the most closely contested grouping of the ladder. If you haven’t completely lost faith in my predictive abilities yet, hang around for part four, where I cover the real contenders.
The ladder do far
1 –
2 –
3 –
4 –
5 –
6 – Bulldogs
7 – Sea Eagles
8 – Titans
9 – Dragons
10 – Sharks
11 – Eels
12 – Raiders
13 – Panthers
14 – Knights
15 – Tigers
16 – Warriors
TheFrog
Guest
This just goes to show how hard it is to predict the table before a ball is kicked. Seems the writer got the Rabbitohs correct though, maybe they're his team. Very poor effort with Panthers and Warriors.
3_Hats SSTID 2014
Roar Rookie
Souths will come close to the Top 4, just watch the New game plan, New Attitude, the pace all over the park, plenty of good depth in all positions. A Big and Mobile Pack. The fastest dummy half in the comp. If Injuries are at a minimum we will be there deep into the Finals.
Emcie
Roar Guru
I think practically every team has had a change in thier halves (and the ones that didn't havn't played together in a while). I think you're right about the top 2 and then the rest. I don't think there's been a season this unpredictable in recent memory, there's really no sure bets
Mike from tari
Guest
Not so funny Souths being in your 5, funnily enough having a red eye & a green eye, I have them finishing on top, if Inglis, big Sammy & Reynolds stay injury free.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Just a comment on the settled versus heavy recruitment approach Emcie - it could take some time for new combinations to gel - particularly for the Knights who recruited heavily and the many teams that have changed their halves combinations over the off season. I'd include the Raiders in this latter group as they will be rotating Aidan Sezer, Sam Williams, Siliva Havili and Blake Austin through the match. Two of these players - Havili and Williams - are new faces compared with last year but the rest of the side is very settled. Is it better to have a settled side and rely on the fact that players are used to how each other plays or is better to clear the decks and refresh the team? Guess we will soon know. Thought I'd also add I'm really enjoying your assessments of each team. The comp is so even this year apart from the top 2 or 3 teams so I think the rest of us supporters are in for a roller coaster ride.
Emcie
Roar Guru
"Bounce back" probably didn't accurately convey my line of reasoning, I'm giving an edge to teams that made signifiant changes over the off season and expecting teams with new coaches to enjoy a bit of first years syndrome. There appears to be a slight change in attitude (coaching wise) towards the more attack focused game plans which a number of teams leant towards last year to counter the more defence heavy tactics that have been the recent trend, and this is what I'm basing that on. With all the off season movement theres going to be a bit of unpredictability about this year and more "settled" teams (like the raiders) may find themselves left behind. Of course I could be completely wrong and all the unpredictibility could be teams undoing, leaving the more settled teams to capitalise. Either way, it's going to be a very interesting season. With regards to the Bulldogs, I've got them in 6th, but that in no way means that they'll be well clear of 8th or 9th. And as for the Rabbits, you'll just have to wait and see ;)
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Hi Emcie. You didn't put much store on the Raiders bouncing back. More like going from bad to worse with your prediction of 12th! Never mind. We'll see what happens. Predictions for where the Raiders will finish are all over the place ranging from 6th to 15th. And with good reason as we don't know which team is going to turn up - the team that performed above expectations in 2016 or the one that performed way below expectations in 2017. Big call on the Doggies coming 6th. I see them improving but maybe not that far. But they'll be scrapping around near the bottom of the 8. Their trial performances provides evidence of them being a lot more competitive. And I won't be making any judgements on the Titans till I see how they perform under the new coach. The Titans have a tendency to go all right for a while and then slip into a huge trough of complacency from which they never escape. They were a lot worse than the Raiders last season. Will be really interesting to see how both sides match up this Sunday as they both have a lot to prove after last season's miserable performances. I'm also not convinced that Manly can repeat what they did last year when they crept under the radar. I think a lot of teams will be better prepared for them this year and there is a big question mark on their 5/8. And I can't see the Rabbitohs yet so they must be in your top 5 which for me will be an absolute shock. From what I've seen on paper I don't see them making the 8. From what you've revealed so far we differ in the fact that I see the Sharks, Eels, Dragons and Raiders all making the 8 and Manly, the Titans, Dogs and Rabbitohs missing out.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Most of our players are at a great stage of their careers , either well established with plenty of good years ahead or relatively young and still on the rise. If the Knights signed the Turbos, Dce , Marty T , Api and AFB they would be considered certainties to make the eight but we have them and coming off a sixth place last year. We managed to get up in some close games last year just like the chooks did and we will need to win a fair share of these again. It will be nice to hit 2019 with a complete roster though and I'd be expecting to be a serious contender by then.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Haha, I may be completely wrong, but I have my reasons!!
Bunney
Roar Rookie
I've just read all three parts Emcie, and I've enjoyed it. I agree with your sentiment that the Eels and Sharks might struggle, but I don't have the Dogs or Titans as high as you do. BUT, the biggest surprise is the Rabbits in the top 5!!?!?!? Wowsers. Didn't see anyone bar a rabid Rabbit fan saying that! I look forward to your justification.
Emcie
Roar Guru
A lot of teams would kill to have some of the talent in Manlys side, I really don't understand why they continue to be so underrated
Emcie
Roar Guru
The titans probably have the highest ceiling out of the three but they also have potential to have the lowest floor, which is why I've got them just scraping in due to some predicted inconsistency. The dogs have been forward heavy for a fair few seasons and still been able to match it with other teams, and with talk of the players being given greater control hopefully we'll see a style more reminiscent of their last three games then the predictable play of the last two years
Emcie
Roar Guru
I heard about that trial game. I think as long as the dogs keep their expectations in check for the opening rounds they'll do alright throughout the season. With their forward stocks they should be able to grind out wins without putting too much pressure on the halves early. One benefit to having your hardest games first is that there'll be a lot of teams still finding their rhythm with all the off season changes so it might not be as tough a prospect as it appears
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
DCE struggles in any team which isn't going well like any half. Blake Green would have made little impact in 16 as we had too many issues to function well. We'll know more in a month or two. Blake Green has left a fair few clubs and they haven't fallen apart. One misconception about Manly is a perceived lack of depth. There are plenty of forwards and several backs in reserve grade which would walk into the 2106 outfit which many rated as possible contenders. We are on the rise , I have little doubt. Keep an eye on Shaun Lane on Friday
Dirk Diggler
Roar Rookie
Looking at those 3 teams and potential upside I would single out the Titans as having the greatest potential based on the comments you made about last years horror show. New ownership , new coach, new roster should mean they are pushing for a Top 8 finish. Then again Manly have in the past had to put up with similar internal issues at their club and always used it for motivation. The Dogs?? Just not convinced they have enough game winners to make a serious run to the finals. Yes they have a very good pack, & backrowers but there are questions at just about every other position. The draw could be their undoing but as we have seen before they tend to finish strongly.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I feel depth may be an issue for the Titans and anything more than a random distribution of injuries will scupper their chances. But I guess you can say that about most clubs. I haven't been too optimistic about the Dogs chances in the off season, but after watching them in their trials (they beat the Panthers 24-10 with a reserve grade squad) and hearing some of the talk coming out of Belmore my confidence is growing a little. But again, like a lot of teams they could finish anywhere from 6th to 14th. A lot of unknowns need to click for the Dogs to do well but there are a more than a few clubs in the same boat. Incredibly tough draw in the first 11 or so rounds. I'd be stoked if the Dogs were sitting 6-6 but they could very well come out of that period 2-10.
Emcie
Roar Guru
@ Nat 6 though 10 were really difficult to seperate, so I gave a fiar bit of weight to a bounce back factor with clubs doing a lot to recover from last year. Really you could put this middle order in any order and still be able to find justifications, but this is as close as i can get to how i see the season shaping.
Nat
Roar Guru
Titans in the 8 is optimistic but, as discussed last week, it could be anyone in those middle positions. If they still had Henry I'd be slightly more confident due to his track record of bringing a team together, Brennan may and I hope he does. My biggest question on Manly is their spine, or #6 specifically, because historically DCE has struggled without an organiser. I can see a late run with Walker's return to fitness and halves combo gelling but it will be a tough start. I'm confident the Dogs will put in a good showing as well. I'm glad this was published today, it's all a bit miserable otherwise.