It’s now or never for the bottom five

By Tim Gore / Expert

This weekend, there are five sides in danger of going winless through the first three rounds of the 2018 season.

Just three short weeks ago, everyone had had a great pre-season and was raring to go. There was optimism and hope in hearts of players and fans. Now, just 21 days later, over a third of the teams need to win this weekend or kiss their chances goodbye.

In the last 40 seasons, only one team has lost their first three games and then gone on to lift the premiership trophy: the North Queensland Cowboys, in 2015.

Almost as scary is the stat that in the NRL era sides that lose their first three games only make the finals 25 per cent of the time.

So, statistically, this weekend is a make or break for the Eels, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Sharks and Raiders.

What has gone wrong at each club and what do they have going for them? Let’s take a look.

Parramatta Eels

After the first 27 minutes of their Round 1 game against Penrith, Parra must have thought this footy business was pretty easy. Leading by 14-0 and powering through the Panthers, surely they were right back into their 2017 groove. Right?

Wrong.

Since that moment, the Eels have not scored a point in 133 minutes of football, while they have conceded 78. That has included their biggest ever loss to arch-rivals Manly.

What has gone wrong?
In the game against the Panthers, the Eels just seemed to stop dead in the water. The subsequent sin binning of Mitchell Moses certainly didn’t help either.

However, their stats for that game weren’t too bad. They had six players who made over 100 metres and missed just 26 tackles. They were essentially overcome by a determined unit after they seemingly relaxed.

The match against the Sea Eagles was another matter. There are reports that the side did a 40-minute ‘warm up’ in the 40 degree heat and humidity at Brookvale Oval. If that is true, then their trainer made a huge error. Parramatta looked cooked from the kick off and found themselves down 18-nil after just 13 minutes.

They had only 39 per cent possession in the first half, which translates into them having to defend for an extra nine minutes in those conditions. By that point, it was 30-0 and the game was truly gone. That they only conceded 24 points in the second half is a positive.

What do they have going for them?
Their team will be stinging from that loss and has the talent to make amends. The Sharks can expect a very physical encounter this weekend, with the likes of Nathan Brown and Manu Ma’u keen to make amends.

Brad Arthur – who is indisputably a good coach – will be ensuring that his boys man up on Saturday night too. Out of the side are Brad Takarangi and Will Smith, with Beau Scott and Kenny Edwards coming in.

When Parra have actually had the ball – and were not totally gassed – their attack has looked reasonable too.

Can they do it?
They sure can. However, standing in their way are the equally desperate boys from the Shire. Saturday night at ANZ Stadium should be a cracker but Cronulla might get them.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

The 2016 Premiers recruited strongly for season 218, bringing in Josh Dugan and Matt Moylan. Further, young Jayden Brailey is showing promise of being an excellent hooker, and Andrew Fifita, Wade Graham and Valentine Holmes are all stars.

While Luke Lewis and Paul Gallen come to the ground using Zimmer Frames these days, they are still good contributors.

So why are they without a win in 2018?

What has gone wrong?
There is absolutely no disgrace in losing to the Cowboys in Townsville. Further, the Sharks got back on level terms in the 69th minute and it was only a late try to Gavin Cooper that split the sides. They also lost debutant Sione Katoa early in the game with a broken jaw.

They looked great against the Dragons, up 14-0 after 28 minutes. The only score they conceded in the first half was a freak try to Nene Macdonald. However, they stopped dead in the second half and were overrun by a St George Illawarra side that is growing in confidence.

Both losses were only by four points, against good opposition. It’s not ideal, but it’s also not terminal by any stretch.

What do they have going for them?
As stated above, their list has quality players on it, capable of really challenging opposition sides. They’ve also got strong leadership, and lots of top-level experience. As well, they’ve got a great and boisterous home crowd.

Can they do it?
Absolutely they can. I’ve got a feeling the new combinations just need a bit of time to click. However, that clicking better happen this Saturday night or they are statistically in big trouble.

I reckon they’ll win.

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

2017 wasn’t good for the Doggies. Their attack wouldn’t have scored on Oxford Street on Mardi Gras. Des Hasler got the boot, Raelene Castle went to Rugby AU and now Ray Dib is off the board. A big broom has gone through Belmore, with James Graham, Josh Reynolds and Brenko Lee all departing. In have come Kieran Foran and Aaron Woods, and new coach Dean Pay.

What has gone wrong?
Playing Melbourne in the first round is never ideal, as the Storm make a habit of winning first up. The Dogs only missed 17 tackles and beat their average score in 2017 by six points, but the premiers scored 36.

Against the Roosters, they missed seven fewer tackles and made eight fewer errors, but were again beaten by 18. It seems the tackles they miss often become tries and when they have the ball they still lack venom.

What have they got going for them?
Well, their defence on the surface seems committed. Josh Jackson and David Klemmer are top-line players, while Will Hopoate, Moses Mbye and Kieran Foran have excellent attacking credentials.

Throw in the experience of Aiden Tolman and the Morris twins and the side is OK on paper. Then, of course, there are the Doggies fans, who’ll continue to show up and be an excellent 18th man, because that’s what the Belmore faithful do.

Can they do it?
Maybe… While I’m sure that Pay will instil discipline and order, I’m still not sure they have the attacking chops to really threaten.

This Friday they face the in-form Panthers, who know how to put on a try. The Dogs must fire, although I suspect Penrith will once more get the job done and Canterbury will be also-rans in 2018.

Canberra Raiders

So much was hoped of the Raiders this year but the moment Josh Hodgson’s ACL went while playing for England, they have been scrambling for a solution. The hope is that they can still be competitive by the time he returns in July.

There were many issues in 2017 and two have returned to haunt them again this season.

What has gone wrong?
Two injuries, both at crucial points in their first two games, exposed their bench. Joe Tapine’s dislocated thumb was the turning point against the Titans, the Gold Coast having struggled in attack and defence against the young Kiwi.

Similarly, the reshuffle forced by Joseph Leilua’s ankle injury further exposed a makeshift right-side defence to the attacking prowess of Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga. They constantly went there with great success.

Canberra may not have the depth to cover those injuries, or the nerve to win the close games.

Further, Josh Papalii is out of form and out of shape, having failed to have any impact against the Knights. In spite of his side having an extra eight sets and four and a half minutes with the ball than their opponents in the second half, he was clearly struggling with the pace of the game.

What have they got going for them?
Like last year, they can still put on a try, having scored 56 points in the first two rounds. Nine tries show what a deadly attacking force they can be.

Further, the likes of Jack Wighton and Shannon Boyd may be in career-best form, with Blake Austin seeming to have discovered his excellent running game and Jordan Rapana still as good as ever.

Further, they are overdue to get a refereeing effort that actually does them any favours at all.

Can they do it?
Yes, but they’ve got to get two points this weekend against the resurgent Warriors anyway they can. Toss a coin.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

I saw this one coming. I didn’t think the Rabbitohs would do well in 2018. I had plenty of questions over their players and whether Anthony Seibold could coach, however Souths haven’t lost in the way or for the reasons I thought they would.

What has gone wrong?
In the match against the Warriors in Perth, the Bunnies were on the end of a few poor refereeing decisions, which amounted to at least 12 points – the margin they lost by – and a lot of momentum.

Against the Panthers, they were up 14-0 before being overrun – captain Greg Inglis getting concussed didn’t help matters there.

In general, they have played relatively well, without being brilliant. However, while they aren’t too bad in regard to missed tackles, their error rates have been high – 14 against the Warriors and 12 against the Panthers; too many if you want to win games.

Losing Adam Reynolds isn’t ideal either.

What have they got going for them?
Against the Warriors seven of their players made 100 or more metres. Against the Panthers six of them did. Further, they’ve got stars to burn with Angus Chrichton, Sam Burgess, Dane Gagai and Greg Inglis. Damien Cook and Alex Johnson are pretty handy too.

As well, they’ve got improvement in them. It won’t take much to get them into the groove.

Can they do it?
It would be handy not to be coming up against an in-form Manly this weekend, when it is a must-win game. They can win that match – I just don’t think they will.

So there you have it. The Sharks are the side most likely to get the win this weekend and remain in the hunt for the title, with all of the others right up against it.

The Crowd Says:

2018-03-24T23:51:36+00:00

Chilli

Roar Rookie


By crikey i was loading the cannon after reading that first sentence on the bunnies but you balanced it out with logic and then hope which we ultimately delivered on last night... boom we beat the real enemy. Always a touch extra special giving it to Manly... particularly on a wet track without Reynolds!! The real difference this year has been young Murray starting at lock for us. Once Surgess gets his match fitness up those few extra tackles he wont have to make each game allows him a bit more gas to become the impact leader we all need, with and without the ball. Murray is one of those De Belin, Jturbo Gallen type locks who just smash themselves for 80 minutes tightening up the middle and ruck which allows us to concentrate on our edge defense which was awesome last night. Once Musgrave comes back in or even if young Tatola keeps impressing along with the resurgence of the Burgess Twins, Sammy will switch to the 11 edge slot and sutto will come into it off the bench with fresh legs. That along with getting Reynolds back, Inglis to FB, Hymel hunt to centre (is too good a player not to be starting) will be when you see what we are really capable of. Johnstone and Inglis will swap roles throughout matches (hunt to wing, GI to centre) to really keep things fresh. Bring it on SSTID.

2018-03-24T11:00:47+00:00

Bunney

Roar Rookie


I am late to this party, but how good is it?? Two of the Roar's League heavyweights going head-to-head! Love it. Tim, I agree with you in general that the refs should be better, and that the problem starts at the top. The refs should be backed to the hilt, not hung out to dry. They should be applauded for making tough decisions, not rewarded for wimping out of making tough decisions. I think the refs boss should come and give the public review at the end of each round, looking at contentious decisions. Some, like Friday night's obstruction in the Doggies first try and the penalty to the Broncs in golden point they'll have to own up for as being incorrect. But they should highlight all the many calls they get right as well, as well as backing them for calling lots of penalties, and using the sin-bin. However, TB has a point that your bias - conscious or sub-conscious - towards the Raiders does show through at times. Lastly, the squirrel grip on Rapana which has dominated the discussion. Based on precedent, its not currently a sin-bin offence, but I reckon it should be. What a stupid tactic. Definitely suspension territory too. But, I cannot accept that it is sexual assault. The NRL footy field has a very different set of laws to the norm. If you hit / tackled people in public the way they do on a footy field, you'll have an assault conviction very quickly. But its part of the game in NRL. They are clearly different spheres. Grabbing and whacking genitalia occurs every single game during tackles. With a bit of luck, neither of you agree with me, and you continue arguing - its very entertaining!!

2018-03-24T03:42:08+00:00

Wolly

Roar Guru


Each to their own I guess. Barry would be one of the first people on the Roar that I’d have a beer with.

2018-03-24T02:11:18+00:00

kk

Guest


I think Tim and The Barry make highly intelligent contributions to the Roar and could not imagine the site without them. I enjoy TB's limericks and TG's stats.

2018-03-24T01:28:24+00:00

David

Guest


I find The Barry to be highly intelligent and very funny.

2018-03-24T00:30:42+00:00

RoryStorm

Guest


Gee I'd hate to be on a interstate bus going from Perth to Brisbane with Barry. He never shuts up. What's worse is he will take whatever you say and argue the opposite just to annoy the heck out of you because he thinks the other Roarers wait in anticipation to read whatever dribble comes out of his mouth. Also like most amateur comedians he thinks he's hilarious with his jokes and limericks. He's not. Seems to me he is obviously on the NRL's books and is being paid by the "word".

2018-03-23T07:06:31+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Most disappointing part of this is that despite your one eyed-ness and propensity to refs fault you’re one of my favourite rugby league journalists. A fact I’ve expressed many times in the past. It’s really disappointing after years of correspondence, discussion and at times robust (but always healthy and respectful) debate you’ve chosen to make it personal with statements like me condoning sexual assault because I didn’t jump on your refs fault bandwagon. It’s a pretty low blow and I would have thought despite a couple of jokey hashtags I deserve better than that. Anyway good luck to the Raiders if for no other reason than to avoid another farken refs fault article next week!!

2018-03-23T06:22:27+00:00

DP. Schaefer

Guest


Nice article Tim. Can I suggest that this year, the first few rounds are too much out of the ordinary to read accurately. True, 0 - 3 will be a struggle but the Cows are only 1-3 and they are most people's premiership favourite. 0-3 is also only two wins behind last year's premiers, who will struggle to repeat that dominant result. I respect your stats of the last 40 years and NRL history, however, it's also the first time in forever that the last four of one year all win their first up games the next year. By round 2 only 1 team from the top 8 in 2017 is in the top 5. 2018 is not going to be a 'normal' year.

2018-03-23T05:33:21+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Why don’t you try the easy bit: When was the last time someone got marched for a squirrel grip? Sam Burgess didn’t. So In that context explain again why Proctor should have been sent off and how that cost the Raiders the game? Crickets... #refsfaultraiders

2018-03-23T05:11:07+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


What do you think is going to happen? You write big long diatribes about me and I’m going to roll over and thank you for it... Typical response though...you don’t actually reply to anything.

AUTHOR

2018-03-23T03:58:05+00:00

Tim Gore

Expert


Just keep throwing your spanners from the cheap seats. It’s what you’re good at.

2018-03-23T02:46:08+00:00

Duncan Smith

Roar Guru


How the hell do you get #metoo into a football article? Oh well, go talk to Hoppa's victims.

2018-03-23T02:39:44+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cm2YyVZBL8U

2018-03-23T02:21:50+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


...do you honestly believe that an article counting penalties and what time they occurred gives you the right to refs fault your way out of every Raiders loss. Don't repackage your Soliola article. Yes you conceded he should have been sent off...you could hardly deny it...but that article was 100% in defence of Soliola and how he shouldn't be judged too harshly for one of the latest, highest, cheapest, grubbiest tackles in recent memory. I shouldn't be amazed that you defend a Raiders player for knocking an opponent into next week but then you're outraged at an opponent squeezing the bollocks of a Raider without injury. It's par for the course... If I was going to take your low approach I'd ask "so you support coward punches and violent assault do you Tim? Because that's what it is when you hit someone in the head from behind. You're a Neanderthal. Glad you don't live in my neighbourhood. Why don't you go and hang out in Kings Cross with your coward punch king hit mates?" But I wouldn't do that...I'm above that sort of thing...

2018-03-23T01:55:31+00:00

Forty Twenty

Guest


Hey Tim , The stats say no team has conceded 50 points and won the title but I wonder if any team has scored 50 points and won the spoon? It wouldn't surprise me if it has happened.

2018-03-23T01:42:42+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


It wasn't that good the first time mate. Certainly didn't bear repeating. My response has been held up by the mods so I'll try a scaled down version. It's beyond pathetic that you're trying to imply that I somehow condone sexual assault all because I didn't jump on your "it cost the Raiders the game" bandwagon. It's grubby. You really need to have a good hard look at yourself and why you'd do that to someone, particularly before you start banging on about throwing spanners. For the record I think Proctor should have been suspended. It shouldn't happen on the football field. But it does. It's just not the crime of the century you want it to be. If you genuinely think a sexual assault occurred why was your concern limited to why Proctor didn't get sent off and why it cost the Raiders the game? I think that's a worse response than making jokes about someone having their wheels grabbed. You're a hypocrite. Go back to your brilliant, insightful statistical analyses of games. They were original and exceptional. This constant "we wuz robbed" diatribe every time the Raiders get beat is destroying your credibility. It's become a laughing stock. Finally - you keep banging on about Proctor being sent off. But Burgess wasn't. Or sinbinned. Can you give one example of a player being sent off for this sort of thing? There isn't one. It's yet another immediately clear, tangible example where the Raiders have been treated exactly the same as every other club but you find a way to call foul and continue your "we wuz robbed" narrative.

2018-03-23T00:55:46+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Theres almost no point responding because you don’t answer anything directly. I find your weak attempts to imply that I somehow condone sexual assault to be pathetic and immature. Of course I don’t. And I think Proctor should have been suspended. But you’re carrying on like a petulant child with all this “it cost us the game” BS. It shouldn’t happen on the field. But it does. It’s not the big deal you’re making of it. You didn’t make any mention of sexual assault initially. It was all about “we wuz robbed”. When you got called on that you started this childish “oh so you’re in favour of sexual assault, are you?” My 11 year old maintains a higher standard of debate. Answer this: Why is it if you genuinely believe a sexual assault occurred, your one and only concern was that it cost the Raiders two points? That’s been your stance multiple times. It seems a weird attitude for someone so far up on their high horse... Sam Burgess didn’t get sent off or sinbinned when he squirrelled Chambers. The refs handled Proctors offence in line with that. But the Raiders got ripped off because he didn’t get sent off. Response? Throwing spanners from the cheap seats? How condescending. I forgot you’ve been nominated for a Walkley for your 27 part expose entitled “how the NRL dudded the Raiders this week” You continually have pot shots at the refs and the NRL. To the point of demanding the NRL hold a press conference to address an internet cartoon. Spanner! ? How can you of all people accuse anyone of throwing spanners. It’s all you do. You’ll never be happy because while ever the Raiders are losing there will always be a way to blame the refs or the rules or NRL HQ. Every team gets dud decisions. Everyone can choose their response. And yours is always “we wuz robbed” It’s an attitude “dude”. Because you have that attitude nothing will ever fix it for you. There will always be decisions that go against you regardless of the system. And when they do you say “that cost us the game. The NRL doesn’t know what they’re doing. It’s rigged. The refs are biased.” The Raiders are playing like absolute plonkers but all you do is lay blame with the refs. It’s just poor sportsmanship. I remember when you used to write brilliant, fascinating articles loaded with insightful statistical analysis. You need to get back to that and let go of the pettiness, anger and victim mentality.

AUTHOR

2018-03-23T00:20:31+00:00

Tim Gore

Expert


Repeated from above so you don't miss it: Baz, A huge amount of sexual assaults – that’s what it is when you grab someone inappropriately without consent BTW – go unreported. Please note the massive #metoo movement. Making a joke out of Proctors behavior – and basically rubberstamping the NRL’s lack of appropriate action on it, while also encouraging others to parrot your Cro-Magnon behaviour – is piss poor behavior on your part. The bloke should have been sent and suspended on that evidence. But your response is that I’m whinging about the refs… I can’t remember when your opinions weren’t basically towing the line coming out of NRL HQ in Moore Park either. It’s almost like you’re on their books. I’ll stop calling the officials and the NRL to account when the following occur: The people responsible for the officials are hired in a transparent process – that actually allows everyone to apply for the jobs – with the process undertaken by independent people – who are approved by a 2/3rds majority of clubs to carry out the role – with stated selection criteria and KPIS that dictate the process. When that happens I’ll be far more likely to accept that they are the best people to run and review the games, and to select, develop and run the actual officials. That, mixed with the non selection of Grant Atkins for last years finals – that completely flew in the face of Archer’s selections all year (https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/09/14/picking-best-people-finals-mr-archer/ – to which your contribution was “Atkins is a flog…”), The fiasco of the Soliola non send off (https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/07/24/sia-soliola-not-sent-off-ask-tony-archer/ ), The appointment of Bernard Sutton to an even higher role in spite of his key role in the Soliola fiasco and his comparative lack of experience (https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/11/10/bernard-sutton-replace-tony-archer-refs-boss/ ) gives me strong grounds to question their onfield results. No one – and I mean no one – has studied the referees as closely as I have. Just look at this Baz: https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/08/03/refs-fault-right-actual-facts/ That sort of indepth analysis actually does give me a right to question the officials and call them out. Its called expertise. and what you come at me with is the trite and purile input of #refsfaultraiders to glibly try to sweep away the fact that had Proctor and Moga got sin binned as they clearly should have that the Raiders two point losses could very well have been wins. In a game of inches these were huge non calls. Four officials and a bunker either no one saw a thing or they decided that a penalty and a letter is just fine for the disgusting act that Proctor perpetrated. Yet you decide that, because I follow the team that had those incidents go against them, my opinion is invalid and biased. That’s in spite of me writing these: https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/07/24/sia-soliola-not-sent-off-ask-tony-archer/ https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/09/04/dear-raiders-this-mad-monday-i-want-you-to-drink-regret-and-steely-resolve/ How about you go with Joh’s #dontyouworryaboutthat next Baz? Or maybe you’ll just tell me to grow up… Whatever dude. You just keep throwing spanners from the cheap seats.

AUTHOR

2018-03-23T00:12:25+00:00

Tim Gore

Expert


Baz, A huge amount of sexual assaults - that's what it is when you grab someone inappropriately without consent BTW - go unreported. Please note the massive #metoo movement. Making a joke out of Proctors behavior - and basically rubberstamping the NRL's lack of appropriate action on it, while also encouraging others to parrot your Cro-Magnon behaviour - is piss poor behavior on your part. The bloke should have been sent and suspended on that evidence. But your response is that I'm whinging about the refs... I can't remember when your opinions weren't basically towing the line coming out of NRL HQ in Moore Park either. It's almost like you're on their books. I'll stop calling the officials and the NRL to account when the following occur: The people responsible for the officials are hired in a transparent process - that actually allows everyone to apply for the jobs - with the process undertaken by independent people - who are approved by a 2/3rds majority of clubs to carry out the role - with stated selection criteria and KPIS that dictate the process. When that happens I'll be far more likely to accept that they are the best people to run and review the games, and to select, develop and run the actual officials. That, mixed with the non selection of Grant Atkins for last years finals - that completely flew in the face of Archer's selections all year (https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/09/14/picking-best-people-finals-mr-archer/ - to which your contribution was "Atkins is a flog…"), The fiasco of the Soliola non send off (https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/07/24/sia-soliola-not-sent-off-ask-tony-archer/ ), The appointment of Bernard Sutton to an even higher role in spite of his key role in the Soliola fiasco and his comparative lack of experience (https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/11/10/bernard-sutton-replace-tony-archer-refs-boss/ ) gives me strong grounds to question their onfield results. No one - and I mean no one - has studied the referees as closely as I have. Just look at this Baz: https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/08/03/refs-fault-right-actual-facts/ That sort of indepth analysis actually does give me a right to question the officials and call them out. Its called expertise. and what you come at me with is the trite and purile input of #refsfaultraiders to glibly try to sweep away the fact that had Proctor and Moga got sin binned as they clearly should have that the Raiders two point losses could very well have been wins. In a game of inches these were huge non calls. Four officials and a bunker either no one saw a thing or they decided that a penalty and a letter is just fine for the disgusting act that Proctor perpetrated. Yet you decide that, because I follow the team that had those incidents go against them, my opinion is invalid and biased. That's in spite of me writing these: https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/07/24/sia-soliola-not-sent-off-ask-tony-archer/ https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/09/04/dear-raiders-this-mad-monday-i-want-you-to-drink-regret-and-steely-resolve/ How about you go with Joh's #dontyouworryaboutthat next Baz? Or maybe you'll just tell me to grow up... Whatever dude. You just keep throwing spanners from the cheap seats.

AUTHOR

2018-03-22T22:43:56+00:00

Tim Gore

Expert


It was 1991. a 50 point turnaround. So there must be bigger. I reckon around Origin time we'll find some beauties.

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