Three rounds into the year, and we can begin to discern some trends. For instance, we know there are three teams who should begin consciously decelerating and planning for next year.
Those three teams are St Kilda, Brisbane and Carlton, who all have their strengths, but whose weaknesses are not fixable on the fly. The Blues and Lions sit on the bottom of the ladder, winless through three outings. St Kilda jagged a victory against Brisbane, but not without a fight.
The three have percentages that are a step change below the 14th placed Collingwood, who sit on 90.4 per cent. A fourth team, the Western Bulldogs, are down in those depths too, but looked a different unit than in their first two hidings on Sunday.
St Kilda can’t score, or more specifically, can’t turn possession into points. As it stands, the Saints are booting just 1.44 points per minute of possession, 17 per cent below the league average rate and 30 per cent below the league leader (who will shock you – but more on that in a moment). Nothing they’ve tried has worked – three talls, two talls, long kicks, short kicks, stoppages or turnovers.
Carlton can’t stop their opponents from scoring, a stunning turn of events given it was the Blues’ strength a year ago. Carlton has conceded scores of 100 or more in all three of their games, the only team to do so this season.
They only did it seven times in 22 games last season, they’re on track for 22 of 22 as it stands. The Blues are overcommitting to their counterattack, while their personnel group has chopped and changed due to form and injury.
Brisbane have a different kind of defensive problem, but one which is all too familiar. The Lions are struggling to keep the ball in their attacking half, recording an inside 50 differential of -8.7 – second worst in the league (the owner of the worst rate will shock you – more on that in the moment, too).
Brisbane is smoking its opponents at stoppages (+8.3 clearances per game), but can’t keep the ball in its hands, playing with incredible aggression that exposes its back half going the other way.
It’s not clear each has an answer available, unlike the Dogs, who turned to their high pressing ways to mince the Bombers at Etihad Stadium. There is reason for optimism out west, but elsewhere in the bottom four, the challenges look real.
For Brisbane and Carlton that was to be expected, but for the Saints a slide down the ladder is an unwelcome development.
Outside of this group, we know very little.
The middle class logjam appears to stretch from fifth through 14th, the teams separated by a win and only 63 points of margin. Collingwood, who sits at the bottom, has shown it has the mettle to hang with the Giants and Hawks, and midfield firepower to handle the Blues. Two members have, in some ways, come from the clouds, on account of a big shift in the way they are playing their football.
West Coast, who sits at the top, are scoring at a league-leading 2.1 points per minute of possession, on account of a long-kicking, quick-trigger counter-attack game that takes advantage of its aerial prowess in the back half.
(Photo by James Elsby/Getty Images)
It’s a fascinating development, all things considered. West Coast was the fashionable slider coming into 2018, and that could still be the club’s destiny. A time in possession differential of -7.7 minutes per game would be death for most clubs, but for West Coast, it looms as a strength. They are able to absorb opposition attacking thrusts, and flick a switch to move into attack mode themselves with great haste.
West Coast is doing this without its spearhead in Josh Kennedy, the league’s ultimate bailout man, and a forward who does his best work when given some space to work in. They do, however, have their most important player in place: Nic Naitanui.
In my preseason predictions I picked Naitanui as the likely leader in hit outs to advantage for season 2018. Right now, he’s tied in third with 34 of the things, but has attended just 148 ruck contests, per AFL.com.au. Max Gawn, who sits atop the charts, has 48 HTAs, but has attended almost 100 more ruck contests (243).
That’s because he’s still working back to full strength – Nic Nat has played just 55 per cent of game time on average, compared to 85 per cent for the league-leading Max Gawn.
It bodes well for when he is fully fit. The Eagles have injected plenty of youth and pace into their line up, and they should improve a little once Kennedy returns to strengthen the forward 50. It’s early, but it appears the death of the West Coast Eagles has been greatly exaggerated.
We as a football collective may have also sold the Gold Coast Suns short. Yes, they’ve played a relatively weak slate of games, but other than this weekend’s home-away loss to Fremantle have done all that could have been asked of them. New coach Stuart Dew has his team playing a high pressure brand, replete with some aggressive switching concepts through the middle of the ground.
The Suns are currently +12.9 on tackle rate (tackles per 50 minutes of opposition possession), a very good mark on its own, but a stunning +29.8 turnaround on their 2017 performance. Gold Coast is kicking the ball much more frequently than last year, although that could be influenced by their rain-soaked Round 1 victory over North Melbourne.
West Coast host Gold Coast on Saturday night this week, with the victor to end the round on three wins. That’ll leave said team ensconced in the eight, setting up their season in close to the best way possible.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Port Adelaide’s season is certainly set up – a 3-0 start, with an away victory against the Sydney Swans in their pocket, the year to date could not have gone better for the Power.
The preseason promise of a flexible forward line has been delivered: 19 of Port Adelaide’s 23 used players have recorded either a goal, a behind or a goal assist so far this season, while nine players have recorded at least two per game.
Remarkably, Robbie Gray is not one of them, the forward booting just two majors to date.
There isn’t a lot that’s different about this year’s Port Adelaide against last year. They still press aggressively, back their defenders in to defend, and run hard between the arcs to create attacking lanes, set up said press, and help the back line.
Their new recruits have helped add a little bit of spark on the counterattack, which could end up being the difference.
The Power have Essendon (away), Geelong (home), North Melbourne (away) and West Coast (home) in their next four, and right now they’d be starting heavy to very heavy favourites against the quartet. But as the Brisbane Lions showed on the weekend, Port Adelaide is vulnerable when the pace is pushed, and the press is broken.
They have what it takes to score, which is what every team is looking to as its path to victory in 2018. It has made for a delightful first three rounds, and a season that will keep us guessing for a while yet.
Philby
Guest
I suspect you'll get even more sick of us once our new star tall, Noah Balta, is unleashed.
Philby
Guest
Re Richmond and injuries....sooner or later someone will start giving some credit to our conditioning staff. I'm sure other clubs are already taking a look.
Philby
Guest
Have to love the optimism. Go Tiges!
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
McInnes is one of those players who is A Grade at WAFL level but just can't cut it at AFL level. Brander should get a guernsey before him in any case. Duggan is useless at shooting for goal, so don't rely on him for more scoring power. If JK doesn't get selected this week they will probably give Ainsworth a run to see how he performs.
Steve009
Guest
Not so much surprised, but disappointed with how many players disappeared when challenged and skills fell away so badly under increased pressure. I want to see these young players desperately trying to meet the challenge, standing up under pressure and not necessarily always winning at this stage, but competing to win at each contest.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
I think Brander should get a run. Took 10 marks on the weekend,kicked 3.3, 5 inside 50s. He's also big and breaks packs. McInnes would do the job,but May will be hard to beat
User
Roar Rookie
Would you also say that the Carlton theme over last ten years has been "We don't need another hero"?
Macca
Guest
I realy don't get this "big stage" argument for Friday night, last year we beat Collingwood on a Saturday afternoon at the MCG in front of just over 70k, this year we lost to Collingwood at the MCG on a Friday night in front of 68k - what exactly is the difference?
true blue
Guest
I am a Carlton fan and am dead against us playing on a Friday night. It is not going to help our rebuild. We play pathetic football on the big stage, and should be playing our games on a Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately I have to agree with some of your sentiment. Clinging to past has got us nowhere. The 16 premiership cups (15 of which are VFL) have become an albatross around our neck. These cups give the powers that be a sense of entitlement that we are supposedly better than the other clubs. I do think we should stick with Bolton though.
Macca
Guest
roughly 12 hours after an Essendon article appears on the site HTH rears his head on a different article form yesterday. There are some truths that are just too harsh hey Harry.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
Old slow Cats gone! Ablett hammies done and dusted!
Paul D
Roar Guru
Bolton’s not working out at Carlton. – I think that seems to be the prevailing view yes No better than they were a few years ago. – How very observant of you Bolton’s been living off the reputation of being a Clarko assistant for too long. - Agreed Anyway, I’m just tired of hearing about Carlton and seeing them in the marquee timeslot of Friday night. – only…3 more games this year. And they’re all against clubs who need a leg-up to draw viewers in the dogs, Swans and St Kilda. So I’m ok with that. Ironically I think it’s the Carlton v Collingwood game that’s least deserving of being on Friday night Club has been of no relevance this century and play some ugly football. - using a century as a yardstick has more impact when it contains 80-90 years rather than 20. What’s your alternative suggestion. Anyone can urinate on a monument. Surely this rejuvenation of the list is the only way forward, even if they do have the wrong man for the job. You can't keep whacking sides for decisions made in the past, not when they have embarked on a different course of action for the future. The club is a complete mess and hasn’t been able to adapt ever since the league embarked on equalisation measures. Brown paper bags just don’t cut it any more. - You might need to update your invective, and really it should be brown cardboard boxes, not paper bags. Salary cap rorts ended 15 years ago for the Blues. They then started offering jobs for the Judd. Stuffy club stuck in the past living off accomplishments achieved during the amateur and semi-professional eras of a suburban Melbourne football league. - Lazy outdated rhetoric. A club clinging to faded glories as yet unaware of how much work is yet to be done in the brave new world they find themselves is perhaps a better way of putting it. Besides they're way better placed than the Saints.
Paul D
Roar Guru
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/to-brisbane-lions Don't forget Claye Beams! But yes, I'm no longer concerned in the short-term about retaining players. Finally the tourniquet has held. Any more bloodletting from the list and we'd have to had to rename ourselves the Brisbane Haemophiliacs
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
If we're talking about underlying skill, will and potential, I absolutely agree that Freo aren't as bad as the thrashing form Port suggests. If we're talking about execution on the day, Freo most definitely were as bad as the thrashing from Port suggests — though to note this is to do little more than state a tautology. Freo's first 15 minutes or so had Port on the ropes, but they were unable to make the most of that dominance by converting F50 entries / time in F50 into goals. The intensity and effort dropped off, and Port were given the space to play the game they want to play. The second quarter saw Freo get a few more goals and look like they were still in it, but the pressure was still missing and Port were still able to play as they pleased and to match those goals. In the second half it just got worse as Port were allowed to transition without even the threat of a tackle. The mounting scoreboard pressure eventually prevented Freo from playing the game they wanted to play, and they resorted to bombing it inside 50 in the hope of gaining ground lost on the scoreboard. Port then made them pay on the counter. Freo's terrible second half was symptomatic of Port's increasing control of the game, which was itself symptomatic of Freo's lack of pressure after the first 15 minutes or so. In that sense, they deserved the thrashing. If they'd focussed on stemming the blood rather than making up ground, they might have avoided the thrashing and perhaps even gotten themselves back into a position to snatch a win.
WCE
Roar Rookie
West Coast should bring in big Fraser McInnes as full forward to replace Ryan this week until JK is back which hopefully could be next week against the blues. Fraser is tough and leads well for a big man. Strangely he has been drafted twice by the club so give him a chance or let him go. Duggy should be another in this week too so more scoring from a mid / forward if he's put on the ball.
Macca
Guest
If it is coming from you it is an odd statement. But lets look at it "IMHO Brisbane has the best young list ripe for development in the AFL (despite what Macca and other Carlton tragics keep telling us)" For this to be correct I would need to be claiming that Brisbane's list is not "the best young list" or at the very least that Carlton's list is better than Brisbane's - I have made neither of these statements and in fact been very positive on the direction the Lions are taking - hence it is an odd statement.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
No it isn't an odd comment. Read it again!
Macca
Guest
Steve in the last quarter against the Tigers the blues were pretty much level pegging at the half way point, the tigers kicked 3 goals in 3 minutes but the blues hung in after that, I wasn't unhappy. Against the Pies Collingwood simply denied us the ball for that second quarter, yes we didn't help with our turnovers yes we didn't defend well enough, yes we were beaten at the contest but credit has to be given to the pies for their ball use (which was unusually good for them). The positive for me though was that after being massively outplayed in the second we turned it around in the third and finished the better team in the last - in previous years we would have folded up our tents and gone home and been belted by 10 goals plus. If you look at the fact we have 2 second year players, a first year player (all under 80kg) and 21 year old with 21 games under his belt all playing in our midfield (not to mention our CHF and CHB are both 3rd year players) are you really surprised at our performances?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I think most of them are already extended contracts. Just last year we had Witho, The Scottish hand bag and Berry sign extensions. Then after being drafted and without having played a game Rayner extended as well. I think our only free-agents / off contract at the end of the year are Lester and Bewick, hardly blokes we will miss if we don't resign them.
powa
Guest
port at adelaide oval are freo's "waterloo" kind of bogey, I dont think they are as bad as the thrashing they got