The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 5

By Josh / Expert

A nice long week of footy this one as the Anzac round sees games spill over into Tuesday and Wednesday. Who are you tipping?

Sydney and Adelaide have been two of the best teams in the league over the past few years so a game between them is one to look forward to.

Home ground advantage decides this one for me – the Swans have a good recent record against the Crows also.

Port Adelaide and Geelong both have questions over where they’re at so it’ll be a valuable scalp for whoever is able to get the win on Saturday night, of course only one can.

Again home ground advantage plays a big role in why I’ll tip Port. Geelong still have a significant injury list and don’t really have a ruckman who can take advantage of the absence of Paddy Ryder.

The resurgent Bulldogs are every chance of topping Fremantle but I suspect the Dockers will get over the line in Perth in what could be a very close match.

Neither Queenslander team played well last week, while Gold Coast have arguably been the more impressive of the two so far in 2018 I’m tipping Brisbane for a breakthrough win.

It’s not been uncommon this year to see sides who were embarrassed one week come out breathing fire the next. Am I brave enough to tip Melbourne? No, I’m a big soft coward – Richmond to win on Tuesday.

Collingwood will challenge Essendon with their physicality on Anzac Day, and I reckon it just might be enough to get them a win over the Bombers.

GWS over St Kilda, West Coast over Carlton and Hawthorn over North all feel like reasonably straightforward tips this week.

Carlton could not have imagine a worse start to the year than having Sam Docherty and Marc Murphy both out with injury, and Matthew Kreuzer probably not at top fitness either.

For that reason, I’ll tip the Eagles to get a win over the Blues as my lock of the week.

Adrian Polykandrites
Sydney, GWS, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Richmond, Essendon

I still don’t totally trust the Giants away from home, but there’s a bit of a stink on the Saints, so the visitors shouldn’t have too much trouble on Saturday afternoon.

An upset isn’t out of the question at the MCG; though I’ll take the Eagles in a close one over Carlton.

Port were dreadful against the Bombers, they should bounce back against the Cats and get the win at Adelaide Oval.

Both the Dockers and Bulldogs would fancy their chances of joining the mid-table scrap with a win here. I’ll bet on the Dogs proving their form of the past fortnight is closer to what they really are and cause a minor upset.

Hawthorn won’t have it all their way but should be too slick for the Roos.

After a shocker against the reigning premiers, I expect the Lions to notch their first win of the season against Gold Coast.

Tuesday night shapes as the game of the round and the Tigers will flex their muscles against the Demons.

Collingwood-Essendon is a coin flip. The Bombers have more scoring power but the Magpies have the superior midfield. I’ll take the Dons, just.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

TomC
Sydney, GWS, West Coast, Port, Freo, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Richmond, Essendon

I think last week was just an aberration for the Crows, but nevertheless the Swans are normally pretty ruthless at home.

The Power look a little shaky, but on balance they have a bit more depth than the Cats, and can win at home.

The Dogs are playing better, but unless they can really get on top in the middle and deny the Dockers the ball I can’t see them winning at the new Perth stadium this week.

The Suns have a better team than the Lions, but half way through their magical mystery tour of everywhere but home I suspect fatigue is becoming an issue, so I’ll back Brisbane in a wet slog.

On ANZAC Day it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. The Magpies had a superb win last week, but I feel we’ve been down this road before of false dawns. The Bombers are a bit more of a complete side and I’ll just give them the edge.

Elsewhere, GWS to have another rare Melbourne win over the Saints, ditto West Coast over the Blues, Hawthorn too classy for North, and Richmond too steady for the fragile Dees.

Round 5 Josh E Adrian P Cam R TomC The Crowd
SYD vs ADE SYD SYD SYD SYD SYD
STK vs GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS
CAR vs WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE
PA vs GEE PA PA PA PA PA
FRE vs WB FRE WB FRE FRE FRE
NM vs HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW
BRI vs GCS BRI BRI BRI BRI BRI
MEL vs RIC RIC RIC MEL RIC RIC
COL vs ESS COL ESS ESS ESS COL
Last week 6 6 5 7 7
Total 18 24 20 23 24

The Crowd Says:

2018-04-21T21:13:14+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


I hope you're hungry. This was such an easy prediction. Freo is that good.

2018-04-21T21:09:42+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Timmy tried but this is Sandi. Timmy would do very well to come home and get some coaching from the big boy. Yesterday was the first lesson.

2018-04-20T06:35:44+00:00

QuokkaJoe

Guest


Dogs have lost 9/10 of their last trips to Perth, and the one they won came after a two week break as part of their finals run. For whatever reason they cannot handle a big trip outside the CBD. Hard to see that changing at all given some of their performances of late. Essendon are all over the place a couldn’t get it done when it was in their corner at home against Sydney. Freo very comfortably

2018-04-20T06:29:08+00:00

Macca

Guest


I think Ryan must be trying to protect his street cred by not putting it on the roar!! I did like the way Ryan still couldn't bring himself to say he was wrong about the blues at the start of the rebuild but just that they have finally agreed with him!! Given I didn't post the link in the form of a question we may just find out what the rapper thinks (unless he is busy with the Haschak Sisters) although I dare say we will be treated to more dross about the leader newspaper.

2018-04-20T06:22:28+00:00

Col from Brissie

Roar Guru


Hey Macca, what a good article by Ryan. Would love for him to put in on The Roar so we could see the responses. I wonder what the 'rapper' would say as he has backed Ryan's previous articles on the Blues.

2018-04-20T06:08:48+00:00

Macca

Guest


No issue with Jockeys just hypocrites who s0 0k when they are on the receiving end but are keen to look big and brave and try and dish it out. You may want to ask Bolton if he finds being called a jockey endearing. As for excuses you still haven’t answered the very simple question “looking at the two line ups picked for this week you are seriously saying that Carlton should win?” You do realise you can try to win but acknowledge the unlikelihood at the same time can't you? That it is possible to live in reality and still have a "winning culture"? That you don't have to be deluded not to "developing a strong loser culture"? By the way you may like this article – the author is very familiar and is no fan of the blues. https://onballers.com/2018/04/20/enough-with-your-bullshit-takes-on-carlton/

2018-04-20T06:05:20+00:00

Macca

Guest


No issue with Jockeys just hypocrites who sook when they are on the receiving end ut but are keen to look big and brave and try and dish it out. You may want to ask Bolton if he finds being called a jockey endearing. As for excuses you still haven't answered the very simple question “looking at the two line ups picked for this week you are seriously saying that Carlton should win?” You do realise you can try to win but acknowledge the unlikelihood at the same time can’t you? That it is possible to live in reality and still have a “winning culture”? That you don’t have to be deluded not to “developing a strong loser culture”? By the way you may like this article - the author is very familiar and is no fan of the blues. https://onballers.com/2018/04/20/enough-with-your-bullshit-takes-on-carlton/

2018-04-20T05:28:56+00:00

mattyb

Guest


Macca,if you have issues with jockeys that's your issue not mine. Jockeys are short little men like Bolts,same as calling Beveridge the skater,or Worsfold the chemist,their endearing nicknames. No excuses in professional sport unless your happy to be a loser club developing a strong loser culture.

2018-04-20T02:57:41+00:00

johno

Guest


Sandi v English ... Fyfe and Neale should get leather poisoning this week. Good to see Langdon back in and Freo gone with a faster defence bringing in Duman for Johnson I would think this is a 6 goal win for Freo. Len Hall game and a night match at Optus - should be good fun. 3-2 would be a nice start to the season

2018-04-20T02:54:20+00:00

johno

Guest


Round 8 2015 was the last time Freo beat any team by 10 goals - North Melbourne by 73 points at Subi - Walters kicked 4 and Mundy and Tabs 2 each. Fyfe got the 3 brownlow votes

2018-04-20T01:39:53+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Never happened yet. Timmy is unlikely to be the first.

2018-04-20T00:39:48+00:00

I ate pies

Guest


It could well be the lowest crowd ever for a Q clash. The state of Queensland footy is disappointing, especially considering, in my opinion anyway, that Queenslanders are more accepting of aussie rules than New South Welshmen.

2018-04-20T00:34:58+00:00

TomC

Roar Guru


Yeah, I'm probably with you on this. I mean, it's nothing. It doesn't matter at all. But I like to see organisations make an effort to get everything right, even when it doesn't matter much. I should say that I'm just assuming this is what he's done. I haven't noticed it in his past previews, but I do know he wrote a couple of books about Carlton.

2018-04-20T00:23:08+00:00

TomC

Roar Guru


I know what you meant, but the Brisbane-Gold Coast game might be one of the most unwatchable in recent history. One team battling fatigue, one team battling inadequacy, both teams likely battling wet, greasy conditions.

2018-04-20T00:15:50+00:00

Liam Salter

Roar Guru


Oops - ignore my outrage. I missed your point about "tipping them by a point to show they don't really mean it". Still though, I don't like it too much.

2018-04-20T00:07:39+00:00

Liam Salter

Roar Guru


Eh, that's not particularly good. If I wrote match previews for Freo contests and continually predicted narrow Freo wins I don't think that would be good. For mine, the odds are stacked so heavily in the Eagles' favour it's difficult to look upon his prediction with a semblance of "oh, that might happen". To be fair to the website, though, they do cover their bases with the obligatory "this article is the view of the author" spiel just below the prediction.

2018-04-20T00:06:13+00:00

Macca

Guest


Answer the simple question Matthew - "looking at the two line ups picked for this week you are seriously saying that Carlton should win?" As for "pumping up" the club - I predicted them to be bottom 4 this year - how is that pumping them up? It is funny how you were quick to complain about me putting an s on the end of you name or having some fun with Harry's name but yet you label Bolton the jockey? You may also want to look up the definition of "prized recruit". And living in reality isn't looking for excuses - you may want to try it some time.

2018-04-19T23:34:39+00:00

TomC

Roar Guru


Howard Kotton wrote that preview. Mad Carlton fan. It's a bit of an established tradition for some not to tip against their own team, so they tip them by a point to show they don't really mean it. I'd probably prefer the AFL website not to let their writers be quite so self-indulgent but of course it's a non-issue.

2018-04-19T23:27:25+00:00

I ate pies

Guest


Geez they're coming thick and fast for the pie train. If Collingwood come good the game against Richmond could be a site to behold; half of Melbourne will be there.

2018-04-19T23:27:23+00:00

Mattyb

Guest


Stop making excuses for the club you've been pumping up for years. If The jockey says losing isn't what Carlton stand for I expect them to come out breathing fire and showing us what it is they stand for. And what about the positives? McKay ha been spoken about by Carlton fans as the next Royce Hart,he's in. Rowe replacing Weitering is a huge plus. Cunningham out should improve two way running and put the other one way runners on notice. Silvagnis prized recruits from his first year in Kerridge and Lamb return to the side. The jockey loves a tall side and this week they've gone even taller. There's a few positives there if your not desperately looking for excuses.

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