The 1-4 Bulldogs hosting the 0-5 Blues is probably not what the AFL expected when they locked in this fixture late last year – though exactly what they were anticipating, I’m not quite sure.
For the Blues, their start to the season has been disappointing, though not altogether surprising. The Dogs’ season has been surprising so far, though perhaps it shouldn’t be.
These are two very, very young teams and historically, young teams stink.
The Bulldogs team, as named, will be an average age of 23 and have played an average of 60.8 games. That’s clearly the youngest team named this round – as they were for the first five rounds of the season.
Carlton will be fielding a team with an average age of 24 years and six months with an average games played of 75. That’s the third-youngest team, tied with Brisbane, though with slightly more experience on average.
Both teams will field 10 players with fewer than 50 games. The Blues have two players with at least 150 games experience (Kade Simpson and Dale Thomas), the Dogs none.
These are bad football teams and their struggles to score are a big reason for that.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
When it comes to converting inside-50s to goals, the Blues are ranked 16th at 19 percent, and the Dogs 17th at 18.6 percent – league average this season is 23.1 percent.
The Bulldogs are slightly better when it comes to creating a score of any kind, ranking 14th for scoring shots per inside-50 (38.4 percent), compared with the Blues’ 31 percent, which is ranked dead last.
Unfortunately that higher score rate for the Dogs is undone by their woeful conversion. Only 48.5 percent of their scoring shots have been goals – again ranked 17th – while for Carlton that’s a very respectable 61.3 percent – ranked third.
It all boils down to the 15th- and 16th-ranked scoring teams for the season, with the former Footscray having scored 21 more points than Carlton though five games (358-337). As I said, these are bad teams.
Does that mean we’ll get a bad game of football? Not necessarily. There’s a chance for this game to be entertaining, and not just in a “two rubbish teams evening each other out” kind of way.
Though they might be equally poor, these sides have somewhat contrasting styles.
The majority of scoring in today’s footy comes off turnovers. The league average is just under 61 percent of scores coming from takeaways and the Bulldogs are right around that mark at 62.8 percent.
The Dogs, though, would prefer to play the territory battle. A touch over 40 per cent of their scores come from forward-half turnovers, which is the highest rate in the league.
That sounds good, and it is when it works, but unfortunately for Luke Beveridge’s pups, their inability to convert their entries into scores and their emphasis on forward pressure means that when teams escape the Dogs’ press, they hit the scoreboard – heavily.
That’s to be expected when your two key defenders have played 34 and five games, respectively – Zaine Cordy and Aaron Naughton.
The Bulldogs have conceded 196 points a game from turnovers starting in their forward half, which is the most of any team.
Carlton have been more of a stoppage-scoring team this season getting 39.2 percent of their scores from ball-ups or throw-ins (the fifth-highest rate) and just 53.1 percent of their scores from takeaways (17th) – the other 7.7 percent, or 26 points, have come from kick-in chains.
Our best hope for this game to be a good one is for the Blues to get away from that stoppage reliability a little – not entirely – and embrace the attacking aggression they showed in Round 1 against the Tigers.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
While they’d like to defend a lot better than they did on that Thursday night, the Blues managed 43 points from defensive-half takeaways.
If they can penetrate the Bulldogs’ press on the counter-attack, they could put up similar numbers tonight, which would go a long way towards winning.
That’s enough of the numbers.
If the game turns to sludge, here’s hoping we can at least enjoy the majesty of Marcus Bontempelli, the brute force of Patrick Cripps, the dynamism of Charlie Curnow and a few sweet sidesteps from Jack Macrae and Sam Petrevski-Seton.
Maybe big men Harry McKay and Tom Boyd will even bag a few and Levi Casboult will take some big grabs in his 100th game.
Zac Fisher, Paddy Dow, Matt Kennedy, Lochie O’Brien, Caleb Daniel, Ed Richards, Aaron Naughton and Tim English are all exciting young players worth watching.
With so many young guys out there, I’m tipping the oldest and most experienced man on the ground, Kade Simpson, to play a big role in kickstarting Carlton’s transition game and lead his side to a 10-point win – their first of the season.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Don Freo
Guest
...and I am saying those tables don't matter. They deal with averages and totals...nothing about experience. That 500 extra games means Freo has 3 long serving veterans. Freo has more youth. Count up to 22 and you'll see.
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
Jesus. No. I’m talking about the 22 players from each side that played last week. The teams and their experience are at the link below if you care to educate yourself. I’m done trying. https://www.afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2018/070820180421.html
Don Freo
Guest
You seem to be taking games that Sandi andJohnno have played...or Danyle Pearce, who has basically finished...and spreading their games over the 9 who have played less than 30 and thus concluding they are all, now, more experienced. Freo had stacks more inexperienced players than WB last week. Forget your average...or total...of the 42 squad members.
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
I know I should move on from this, but the Bulldogs had almost 500 games less experience than Fremantle in the game between the sides in round five and were on average more than a year younger. What point has been made?
Don Freo
Guest
That's right. They named a 25 man squad..."this week'. That was on Friday. Now the emergencies have been sorted. That argument is now passe. The quality and extent of Freo's youth is not passe but ongoing and rich. Remember the original comment was to suggest that Freo was less experienced than The Bullies who they beat. That point is made.
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
Come on mate, you literally said to me, "You are talking about the Freo squad. I am talking about the team named this week." Anyway, I didn't come on here to argue about Freo's list. I just wanted to clarify that the stats in the article were correct. Have a good one.
Don Freo
Guest
You might like to read the beginning of the the thread. As they say in Phantom comics..."For those who came in late..." Anyhow, our youth is better than yours and they run deeper. Soooo...Freo IS something special.
Don Freo
Guest
Kersten, Hughes, Jones... I made it clear I am talking about that named squad. Obviously the final team will see 2 drop out, Sheridan will be one of the 3. Any way you look at it, Freo has more just beginning their careers than established. This is a wonderful example of a re-stump, re-wire on the run. More than half the team has less than 50 games. Just a great blend of youth and classy experience.
Cat
Roar Guru
1. George Horlin-Smith - 48 games 2. Jackson Thurlow - 40 games **Just been added to the side and Scott Selwood withdrawn 3. Sam Menegola - 35 games 4. Cory Gregson - 33 games 5. Tom Stewart - 26 games 6. James Parsons - 24 games 7. Brandan Parfitt - 20 games 8. Lachie Fogarty - 5 games 9. Tim Kelly - 5 games 10. Jack Henry - 4 games 11. Esava Ratugolea - 4 games 12. Jordan Cunico - 3 games And in case any of our emergencies are swapped in: Zach Guthrie - 13 games Charlie Constable - 0 games Your team is hardly the only young side running out so stop acting like you're something special.
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
Don, I'm not saying the Dockers aren't young. I don't think anyone is saying that. But the numbers you're presenting aren't true. Fair enough you're counting 49-gamer Hamling as under 50 games, that makes 12 players with less than 50 games experience in the named team to face West Coast. Hamling 49 McCarthy 45 Blakely 38 Tucker 34 Langdon 29 Pearce 26 Ryan 16 Brayshaw 5 Banfield 5 Cerra 4 Crowden 4 Duman 1 That's 12 named players under 50 games before the bounce, eight under 30 and five under 10.
Don Freo
Guest
The numbers are there. I guess you've dropped Hamling off...he hasn't played that 50th yet. You're not impressed by the 11 under 30 or the 8 under 10? I am. The numbers come from looking at the named list and seeing how many games they have played. You can say this is an experienced side if you want to but you'd have to deny a lot of truths to make that argument.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
There will be a bit of a reset for the winner,maybe because they'll know what worked and what didn't. Dogs have Suns at Ballarat ,Blues have Crows at Adelaide Oval Carlton already know what they're on about for the season but I don't think the Dogs do I still think the Blues by three goals
anon
Roar Pro
Are they? Who is able to watch twilight that isn’t able to watch in the traditional slot? Twilight games rate higher, so clearly quite a number of people watch who wouldn't otherwise. The advantage to channel 7 is that in the afternoon slot most people watch all the pregame stuff (or at least have it on) and then once the game is over they switch off or change channel. They will have pregame for night Grand Finals. If we switch to a twilight fixture channel 7 have a longer pre-game period which means they have more hours when the TV is on their channel. So we get more viewers. More people tuning in. So no more viewers just the same people viewing 1 channel for longer – no be3nefit to the viewing public. Except for the people who watch wouldn't otherwise. Higher ratings means more people tune in.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Well, Gil's confirmed that it'll start in the afternoon this year. No need for hysteria, folks!
Macca
Guest
The bulldogs this year have kicked 7, 9, 14, 11 & 8 goals (total 49) The blues this year have kicked 15, 9, 11, 4 & 10 (total 49) Something tells me there isn't going to be a lot in this game.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I just can't get enthused about this game in any way. For what it's worth, Dogs by 27 points.
Macca
Guest
"Isn’t it a benefit to the viewing public if more people are able to watch the game?" Are they? Who is able to watch twilight that isn't able to watch in the traditional slot? The advantage to channel 7 is that in the afternoon slot most people watch all the pregame stuff (or at least have it on) and then once the game is over they switch off or change channel. If we switch to a twilight fixture channel 7 have a longer pre-game period which means they have more hours when the TV is on their channel. So no more viewers just the same people viewing 1 channel for longer - no be3nefit to the viewing public.
anon
Roar Pro
But more importantly what is the benefit of a twilight GF? The only one I can think of involves channel 7 being able to get viewers for longer. Isn't it a benefit to the viewing public if more people are able to watch the game?
Macca
Guest
Because the MCG tradition allows the AFL to sell the most tickets and make the most money - the Saturday afternoon tradition is getting n the way of the AFL making more money from the TV rights deal!!
Cat
Roar Guru
The GF at the 'G isn't about tradition anyway. Its the only stadium in the country that has enough seats the general public and club members have a chance of getting. Make no mistake if the game went to a smaller venue the first seats that would get cut would be the allocations to members. No chance the money making corporate seats or the sponsors and club tickets would go.