In August last year, I penned a preview of the upcoming 2017-18 Sheffield Shield season, including some bold, if not entirely wise, predictions.
In reviewing the season past, I thought I would see how my predictions fared.
Most runs
My prediction for the highest run scorer was young South Australian Jake Lehmann.
I was not even kind of close with this one, as Lehmann came in at 21 on runs scored, with just 536 runs from ten matches, at an average of 28.21.
The most runs this season actually goes to resurgent Queenslander Matt Renshaw, who scored 804 runs at 44.66, including three centuries.
Most wickets
My tip for most wickets was tall West Australian quick Jason Behrendorff.
I was pretty far off the mark here too, but more thanks to ‘The Dorff’s’ dodgy back than anything else. Plagued by injury to only play two matches, this one was hardly fair.
The most wickets this season goes to Victorian Chris Tremain, who continued his tremendous run of form with 51 wickets at 21.07. Tremain has been outstanding over the last few years and will be looking for higher honours in 2018.
Best wicketkeeper
I tipped Alex Carey to be the best ‘keeper in 2017-18. Despite only taking 23 dismissals (as opposed to Queenslander Jimmy Peirson’s 39), Carey was good with the gloves, while also scoring 455 runs at 35 in eight matches, including a very good 139.
His performance was good enough to get him called up to both the Australian T20 and ODI teams, and because of that I’m going to give myself half a point.
However, I only give myself half a point because we must mention one Matthew Wade. After being kicked out of the Test fraternity for Tasmanian teammate Tim Paine, Wade had an excellent year, taking 37 dismissals and scoring 654 runs at 43.60.
Matthew Wade (AP Photo/Tsering Topgyal)
Surprise player
In this slightly subjective category, I tipped Joe Burns for a return to form, and I was spot on.
Somewhat forgotten after his fall from Test cricket, Burns wound back the clock this year to have the highest average of any player not participating in Tests. Coming seventh on the runs tally, Burns scored 725 runs at 55.76, with two centuries, including a brilliant 202*.
His form was so good that in the fallout of ‘sandpapergate’, he earned a well-deserved recall for the third Test in South Africa.
Surprise team
For my surprise team, I had Tasmania, and I’m going to take the points here too.
Coming dead last in the previous two years (and second last before that), the Tasmanians turned it around this year with a new coach and some new players.
While not managing to take the Shield, they won five of their ten matches, and drew anther two, making it to second on the ladder and into the final. An excellent result for the Island State.
Last place
I picked Queensland, and as fellow Roarer Matthew Pearce was so quick to remind me, I literally could not have been more wrong.
Despite losing some greats to retirement, and their best player to Tests, the Bulls were brilliant, only losing one match during the regular season, and pulling off a nine-wicket victory in the final to win their first Shield since 2011-12.
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First place
And finally, on the back of a solid couple of years and a settled team, I picked South Australia to win. They came last. So not a great pick from me there.
Winning only two matches, and drawing only another two, the Redbacks had a year to forget, despite having two of the top-five run-scorers for the season (Callum Ferguson and Jake Weatherald).
So out of seven predictions, I give myself the grand total of two-and-a-half points.
I hope you other Roarers out there did a little better with your predictions for the 2017-18 Sheffield Shield.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Nice article Edward and I reckon your 2½ is a damn good score. I guess now that Dave Warner is gone forever and even Cam Bancroft gone for a year, then the two favourites for openers must be Mattie Renshaw and Joe Burns. I honestly can't think of anyone else, maybe Jake Weatherald if he can find consistency. Burns was cruelly shafted by a panicked selection panel in that South Africa Australia tour of 2016, but no-one complained because Renshaw started like a house on fire. Give him time and Burns has potential to be there for the next 10 years.
Stephen Vagg
Roar Guru
Good on you for being honest! I think all pundits should be forced to revisit their predictions at the end of the season! Wade's case is fascinating. His international career ends, he relaxes and finds form. I think absence of pressure helped Renshaw a lot too... and the pressure and attention hurt Lehmann. I think Queensland's form surprised everyone - the team just clicked.
bearfax
Guest
Heazlett was injured for the first four matches and only batted in 12 innings. He started poorly picked up in the middle period and fell away again towatds the end. However he scored an unbeaten century, a fifty and two forties and still managed for the season as reasonable 35.54 average. He should improve markedly next season.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
For most of this past season they only had one of them, so not as drastic a loss as it sounds. Khawaja played only the first couple of matches, Renshaw was horrible pre-BBL, while Burns was away most of post BBL. SO for the majority of the season we had one opener in form, one either out of form or injured, and no Khawaja. That's actually part of what made the season so enjoyable - the lesser lights of Hemprey, Labushagne, Wildermuth and (occasionally) Pierson all stood up at key times with the bat...and when they didn't Neser and Feldman performed rescue jobs. Heazlett is considered the best batsman of the lot, but did nothing - hopefully he turns that around next year.
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
Cheers Bunney, it was a pretty unusual year. I'm happy that my Tassie tip worked out especially, because as you say they were pretty average to start. Queensland definitely the star of the show this year though, great turn around. Though looking forward, I do worry about them with all three off Khawaja, Burns and Renshaw likely to play tests.
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
You're spot on BF, and I am probably being a bit harsh on young Lehmann. If you look at the averages, it was actually a tough year for the batmen, with only Burns of the top scorers averaging over 50. I think the ability to adapt after being found out is almost a necessary prerequisite for test cricket, because you know these other teams will have hoards of analysts scrutinising your every fault. For them to see this happen early, and adjust accordingly, can only be good. I actually think it is the lack of this experience that has been the downfall of Burns, Renshaw and Handscomb particularly.
bearfax
Guest
Edward, I wouldnt be too down on young Lehmann, though your perception is correct. What we all need to notice is when a young new batsman comes into first class cricket, some start in spectacular fashion. Just in recent times think not only Lehmann, but Renshaw, Dean, Bancroft, Cartwright, Silk, Heazlett and Patterson. They all started with a bang and looked the goods. Then either in the second or third season they slump. Now I'm not a cricket expert but I suspect they start confident, then bowlers start to realise their faults and keep bowling there, they get out cheaply more often and suddenly the confidence and the runs dry up. The good ones then learn to address the flaws and come back with a vengeance. Young Doran was the exception and didnt get off to the bright start that the others did but he aso started to learn how to overcome his faults. Lehmann has hit the wall. But I suspect he will work on his faults and come back better sometime next season, just as Renshaw is beginning to show.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
Ed, I would say 2.5 out of 7 ain't bad tipping for last season. Only the most one-eyed Qld'ers would have thought they would dominate the Shield the way they did. I'm one-eyd, but not THAT one-eyed. This season was a very pleasant surprise! I also thought SA were going to do a lot better than they did. Tassie were unbackable, especially after starting the season poorly - I'd be immensely pleased with that tip too! Well done
JamesH
Roar Guru
I think you're being too harsh on yourself. Picking Tassie to rise was gutsy, and that was probably the most out-there tip. The rest of your tips looked solid on paper.
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
I remember a few years ago when they were talking him up as the next big thing, and I just remember thinking give the poor kid a break, how can he live up to it. And surprise surprise, he struggled a bit stepping up. But I was so happy to see him do well this year, and I think his shoring up of the middle order was a big factor in Tasmania's success this season. Very interested to see what he'll be like next season. That said, if Jake Lehmann this year has taught me anything, it's not to get too excited about young fellas too soon.
bearfax
Guest
Yes that's the case. I tried to indicate that in what I was saying but rushed through the material and spelt the word 'restraint' incorrectly. That was my implication regarding his time spent at the crease. He needed to treat the bowlers with respect istead of going at them like a bull in a china shop
Matt P
Roar Rookie
Definitely impressive with regard to runs, but I think his most impressive feat was how long he actually managed to stay at the crease as well. Didn't he face something like 500 more deliveries than the next best batsman? Excellent quality to have.
bearfax
Guest
Nice wrap Edward. Some interesting figures there. I would also give a special mention to the final rise of Jake Doran. This kid was struggling big time playing with the big boys after leaving all internationally in his wake at junior level. But he finally worked out the need for restant and has improved his first class average this year by almost ten runs and is now averaging 31.27. This season Doran scored his first century, passed 50 seven times as well as a 48 from 17 innings and averaged for the season 44.47 from 756 runs. Not bad for a young lad just over 21 years. Looking forward to his efforts in the next season. He certainly has the potential of being in the Australian test side in a year or two. One to watch.
Matt P
Roar Rookie
Oh well. Bummer. Still, don't recall anyone objecting at the time, hindsight is 20/20 after all (or should that be 100/100?). Yep, pushing blokes in before they're ready is the biggest scourge with selections now, and I really don't understand it, since the generally observed trend is that late-20s - early-30s is a batman's peak. Why push people in before then and set them up for failure (see Maddinson, prime example there). Our other obsession seems to be with constantly searching for 10+ year career 'superstars'. Why? Beyond how rare they really are (how many blokes look like they'll be it, but then just drop out because, again, burnt out too early), why are they so necessary? Seems like another rose-tinted nostalgia fulfillment wish for mine, they're good when they appear but don't try and force it, you'll just end up with the same as above. Other note, look how it's possible to be ambivalent about players, or even like and praise them, while still admitting they're not the right selection yet. Didn't even have to actually try and disparage them. If only some other people could pick up on this... Not even commenting on that faux pas :-P
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
Not flattering, just owning up to a poor call. I'm with you on Head though, he obviously has a lot of potential, but also definitely one of those who got pushed too hard before his time. This goes back to the old transparency in selections argument: why pick him for so many internationals when others seem as deserving or better? And before all the people who love Head get worked up (ahem), he's a good players and has done pretty well, just talking about initial selections.
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
Yep I certainly wasn't brilliant this time around, but I still maintain I was logical. Just goes to show, sport ain't always about logic. This is why I don't gamble anymore.
Matt P
Roar Rookie
'Bout time you got this out! :-P Shouldn't be too hard on yourself with these predictions, most of these at the time were pretty logical picks; Behrendorff's a shoe-in when he actually manages to stay fit and Lehmann particularly surprised me with his drop in form. Tassie and QLD absolutely surprised me as well, I was expecting another bottom 3 finish from us. Just goes to show that cricket really is a team sport. SA's run this season is a prime example for me of what's still lacking with Head, certainly in terms of batting at least. His standard 1:2 ratio of brilliant v mediocre knocks that we again saw this year is not good enough for me. At least consistently "average" players are still consistent. Loved the Burns pick at the time, and I still love it. I've managed to hold back of late but usually I'd bang on till I was blue in the face about his shoddy treatment and how it was ignored by the public at large. Broken record, I was. Also, personal mention? You flatterer, you!
qwetzen
Guest
Well played for admitting that you're a lousy tipster. You are The Roar's Adam Gilchrist...