Eight hot takes from AFL Round 11

I came so close to nine out of nine this week… unfortunately, it’s just eight. In honour of that fact, here’s eight hot takes from the AFL weekend.

Don’t kid yourself, Richmond are still premiership favourites
Richmond’s past three games before Round 11 were all a little below-par given our high expectations for this team, and I’ll admit to having thought they might be falling behind in the race for the flag.

They did win two of those three – against North Melbourne and St Kilda – but the wins probably weren’t by the margins we’d generally think the Tigers are capable of.

It was the loss that really did it though, a virtually uncompetitive performance against the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium that saw them cop a 47-point loss.

On the other side of the story on Saturday night, Essendon came into the match having put together two really impressive wins in as many weeks, and Bombers fans would no doubt have been dreaming of making it three.

In the end what looked like a potential classic Dreamtime at the ‘G matchup turned into a bit of a fizzer. We found out this week that name-a-game is being shut down, but I don’t think too many were planning to order this one regardless.

Essendon just didn’t bring that same effort level that we have seen win them games in the past fortnight. Were they a bit tired? It wouldn’t be a surprise given how hard they were working last week and before.

The Tigers on the other hand reminded us that they have more matchwinners than just the big four, and that they are very, very, very hard to beat the MCG.

Given that’s where the grand final is played, surely they are still the favourites to win it.

Especially when you factor in the news that…

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Crucial injuries could derail Eagles, Dees
The West Coast Eagles look set for a nervous wait on the severity of the ankle injury Jack Darling copped in the opening minutes of Saturday night’s game against St Kilda – Melbourne, on the other hand, already know their fate.

Jake Lever suffered what has been confirmed to be an ACL injury against the Western Bulldogs – his second, having also injured his ACL as an under-18 player – and will miss the rest of the 2018 season.

It’s a real shame for the Demons as Lever’s form, after being a bit slow to start the year, has rapidly improved as the season went on, culminating in an excellent performance against his old club last week.

That said, Melbourne are travelling well enough at the moment that they will still be confident they can go deep into finals even without Lever available.

They’ve got an interesting puzzle to work out as far as replacing him in their backline goes, but one would expect they’ll still be a very competitive side.

Good enough to win the flag? I have doubts, but they’re not new doubts.

Losing Jack Darling for an extended period – if that is indeed what’s on the cards for the Eagles – would be a much bigger blow.

He’s in the conversation as their most important player based on his form to start the year (but probably still No.2 behind Nic Naitanui), and the Eagles didn’t look the same without him on Saturday night.

The injury is unlikely to be so severe as to see him miss the rest of the season but if he’s out a while it could make it difficult for the Eagles to secure a top-two spot or get him into his best form in time for finals.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Dayne Beams bounces back
I could not possibly have more respect for Dayne Beams’ decision ahead of last week’s game to step down from the Lions’ captaincy as he goes through the process of grieving for his father.

I am lucky to be able to say that nothing quite so tragic has ever happened to me, but – like most people, I think – I’ve had my times of poor mental health.

And when I have – in the past – I’ve struggled to speak up about it, and instead suffered in silence. And when I did that, I derailed years of my life. They were years I won’t get back.

If I had spoken up, and let people know that things were getting a bit much, and that I had a lot on my plate, it would’ve made life so much easier.

(Don’t worry about me readers – I’m doing great now!)

Mental health is a problem that effects everyone but (and I say this without intending any disrespect to the struggles of other parties) it is something that disproportionately affects men.

Why? We could talk a lot more about that than we have time for here, but the short version is, well, I can’t say it any better than Taylor Adams did.

I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Beams has played by far the two best games of his 2018 season in the two weeks that have followed this decision.

He had 38 touches and a goal against the Swans last week, then backed that up with 32 touches and five against North this week – wowee. All Australian selection would not be undeserved.

Dayne, I am overjoyed to see you doing well. Thank you for being the role model that we need.

The Roar encourages all readers who may be suffering from mental illness to seek support from organisations such as Lifeline, Beyond Blue or Headspace.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Crows’ season on the verge of collapse
In our tipping panel this week we unanimously picked the Adelaide Crows to beat the GWS Giants in the final game of the round, despite their mounting injury problems.

I made my tip before I saw what anyone else had picked and was fairly comfortable with it, but when I saw we were all voting in the Crows’ favour I got very nervous.

Why? Because this was a game that deserved to be close to an even split. Yes, the Crows were at home, and GWS have been poor lately, but the Giants have been getting injured players back where Adelaide haven’t.

In on-field respects I’ve been really impressed by the way Adelaide have coped with their injury crisis – bar last week’s capitulation, they’ve been reliably competitive and often victorious.

Off the field, things get a lot more worrying. There are always questions to be asked when injuries are this widespread, unfortunately, there are rarely any good answers.

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how AFL clubs report injuries and what could be done to make them more honest – in that spirit of honesty, I’ll tell you that it doesn’t bother me much what clubs do.

However, if I was a Crows fan, I would be a bit grumpy with the way Brad Crouch’s injury has been handled this year – the communication between club and fans has been confusing at best.

Unfortunately for the Crows the loss was just big enough to see them tumble out of the eight, and Port Adelaide move up a spot despite having lost this week (while North fell a spot despite winning). Funny old game.

The Power have a game in hand over their South Australian rivals and will be hoping to put some distance between themselves and the Crows by the end of the bye rounds.

Despite there being so much to like about them, finals are no guarantee for Adelaide, and they could be just a few more losses from the edge of disaster.

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Nathan Jones, Tom Lynch, and the value of loyalty
Nathan Jones isn’t a Chris Judd, or a Gary Ablett, or a Patrick Dangerfield. But he’s going to finish his career with something that none of them will – the legacy of a one-club player.

And Jones, of course, has found it more difficult than most to be a one-club player, because mental anguish of being at Melbourne in years past has broken many.

Some went to other clubs and have had varying degress of success, others fell out of the AFL altogether.

As it stands there are only four players on the list who played a game under Mark Neeld – Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Max Gawn, and Jones.

Of the four, Jones has been the one who has shouldered the greatest load, playing week-in-week-out, often seemingly as the Demons’ only worthy player.

He may not have some of the superstar attributes that other players do, but there can be no doubt that his mental fortitude is second to none.

That’s something we all know about Nathan Jones by now, and it led Sam Landsberger to make this suggestion on Twitter on Saturday.

What is the value of loyalty in the AFL? Hard to measure it exactly, but I feel like regardless of the answer we could probably agree that it is often undervalued.

It’s not uncommon for players to make a move simply because the money they’re being offered to do so can’t be ignored, but I’m not sure that’s always the right call.

Consider for example a player like Tom Scully. He has more money in the bank right now certainly than he would if he had stayed at Melbourne, no doubt there.

But, just imagine what his profile would be like if he was a part of this Melbourne team right now (assuming that in this parallel universe he isn’t injured).

He’ll undoubtedly make more cash out of his AFL career as a Giant, but I’d wager the post-career opportunities for a star Melbourne player (perhaps a member of a drought-breaking premiership team?) would be a lot more lucrative than for a GWS one.

Unfortunately perhaps that’s why I expect – despite the value of loyalty – Tom Lynch is guaranteed to be playing at a big Victorian club this year.

If Nathan Jones steers the ship of the Melbourne football club through stormy weather to success, you can expect a raucous parade in his honour.

Tom Lynch could never hope for that on the Gold Coast, and that’s why he’ll go.

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Gary finds form on the Gold Coast
In the past two weeks I’ve expressed some disappointments with Gary Ablett’s form so far in 2018, so it’s only fair after his best game of the year to give the bloke a hand for his performance.

37 touches and three goals was an outstanding best-on-ground effort from Gary, and funnily enough it came at his first game back at Metricon Stadium.

Is there any chance that all those years on the Gold Coast have turned him into a Metricon Stadium specialist? The Cats will certainly be hoping not!

Ablett wasn’t the only Cat to show his claws with the other members of the Holy Trinity chiming in for 33 touches and a goal (Joel Selwood) and 28 touches and a goal (Patrick Dangerfield).

It was arguably one of the most complete performances we’ve seen from Geelong this year, and the result was a clinical 85-point drubbing of the seemingly lifeless Suns.

The massive percentage booster has lifted the Cats up to fifth on the ladder, and they play sixth-placed North Melbourne next week – the winner of that match will be in prime position to pounce on the spot of any top four team that slips up.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Good stuff from the Saints, but no satisfaction
I’m in two minds when it comes to St Kilda’s last fortnight.

On one hand if you asked me two weeks ago whether or not two losses by a combined margin of 41 points would be a good result for the club, my answer would undoubtedly have been yes – because it could easily have been more like 200.

On the other hand, the Saints were a genuine chance to win both games with the form they brought, but couldn’t get it done. They did well when they put themselves in the frame to have that opportunity, but they did poorly when they failed to take it.

In both matches luck fell their way a bit. Richmond and West Coast both lost key players to injury mid-game and for both sides those injuries seemed – at least temporarily – to disrupt the way they like to play.

Richmond eventually recovered from the early loss of Jack Riewoldt to storm home for a win through the good work of Josh Caddy and Nick Vlastuin, while West Coast just seemed to maybe have gotten a little ahead of themselves with one eye on the bye.

In both matches the Saints showed a finishing power we haven’t seen from them all season – they’ve kicked a combined 26 goals, nine behinds over the past two weeks, and both Jade Gresham and Tim Membrey have kicked bags.

So should we be encouraged by their improvement, or disappointed with the fact it hasn’t led to four points? A little of both I guess, and one would hope the mood among the playing group remains positive.

Sydney next week at Etihad Stadium is again going to be a very big ask and possibly more than they can chew, but the Suns in Round 13 represents a golden chance to get their second win of the year if they maintain the rage.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Tenacious Ahern has a debut to remember
A lot of players will make their AFL debuts in 2018 but you’d be hard pressed to find one as impressive this year as that of Paul Ahern (though Brodie Mihocek might have a thing or two to say).

29 disposals, seven score involvements, 381 metres gained – he showed his versatility by winning the ball all over the ground, wether it was off the half-back, at the centre bounce, or driving into the forward 50.

And what a special touch that it happened this week, of all weeks.

It’s one thing to come in and play like a pro in your first AFL game but it’s quite another to do it when you consider from just how far back Ahern has come.

He was a top-ten draft pick for the GWS Giants but never played a game for them as two ACL injuries in the space of a year got his career off on the wrong foot.

The fact that the Giants were willing to accept the low price of pick 69 for him in a trade – when he was still a contracted player – says a lot about how much of a challenge he was facing to return to the game.

He has gone from strength to strength since he joined North Melbourne and although it’s been a lengthy recovery, as a fan I’m proud of the club for giving him the opportunity.

Moreso though I must commend Ahern himself for the tenacity he has shown to stick to his recovery plan even when the light at the tunnel must have seemed a great distance away.

It’s a trait that will serve him well in his AFL career. It may have taken him three and a half years to get on the field… I have a feeling it’ll be hard to get him off it.

(AAP Image/Hamish Blair)

Quick and nasty
– In addition to Shane Edwards’ best-on-ground performance on Saturday night and Paul Ahern’s fabulous debut, Shaun Burgoyne deserves a nod for really lighting it up this week in Indigenous Round. He has a habit of doing that, and it’s great to watch.

– On one hand I reckon Cam Guthrie is on a pretty good wicket at Geelong and would be silly to consider moving – he’s a good player, but not anything more than that. On the other, I would’ve said the same of Josh Caddy two years ago.

– I’m a fan of the ‘bonus point for scoring 100 points’ idea, as put forward by Josh Jenkins and Malcolm Blight. Certainly the numbers of how it potentially advantages teams at certain grounds would have to be looked at… but I think it has promise. Sue me.

– I didn’t have anything against Damien Hardwick labelling the goal review system an embarrassment to the game last week, but… so was Alex Rance’s dive this week. I don’t expect him to pot his players in public, but I’d love to know what he’ll do in private.

– Jack Silvagni’s return to AFL level this week was really impressive and a big tick for letting players get hungry in the VFL, of which we have seen several this year. As a competition, I think we’re moving away from the idea that gifting players games at AFL level is the way to develop them.

– There were genuine fears we had seen the last of Dale Morris when injury struck at the start of the year – warms the hear to see him back on the park.