Tom Rogic’s apparent inability to involve himself in the attacking play against Hungary is a symptom of Bert van Marwijk’s tactical scheme.
This is not to say Rogic shouldn’t shoulder some of the blame for his limp performances against the Czech Republic and Hungary, because the Celtic player is certainly guilty of wallowing in a sort of drifting malaise, that could be – if not solved – certainly be helped by a bit more self-propelled invention and industry.
But the disconnect between Rogic and his midfield colleagues is a problem that the system is creating.
Without possession, Australia are in a tight, structured 4-4-1-1, with Rogic defending behind Andrew Nabbout, ahead of a flat midfield. Here, wingers Matt Leckie and Robbie Kruse are relatively deep, able to help track wide runners, and support their full backs.
The rigidity of this defensive formation, and the risk it runs of letting unchecked opponents drift into dangerous positions between the lines, ahead of the defence and behind the oblivious midfield, is a separate concern.
When arranged this way, with plenty of men in midfield, it’s harder for the opponent to pick up and specifically neutralise Rogic. Obviously, the defensive stance is the starting formation for many of Australia’s counter-attacks, and indeed it was from a scattered counter-attack 25 minutes into the Hungary match that Rogic first glinted into view, albeit only fleetingly.
All our World Cup opponents are likely to demand more than the 43 per cent possession Hungary enjoyed, and so these counter-attacking situations – assuming we can defend without haplessness – may become more relevant at the big tourney.
But for now, when we have the ball and morph into the in-possession scheme, Rogic’s isolation is exacerbated. As was identified in the game against the Czechs, Australia’s centre backs and central midfielders take up a box formation in the deep midfield, as the full backs roam up the flanks and the wingers tuck into the interior – either dropping deep, or lingering either side of the striker.
As much as this mechanism allows for ease in possession for Mark Milligan, Trent Sainsbury, Mass Luongo and Aaron Mooy, giving them time and space to clip longer passes into the final third, it means the opposition can basically double-team Rogic in the middle of the pitch.
Hungary’s strikers were dropping off, allowing the Aussie centre backs to hold the ball unmolested, and were marshalling Mooy and Luongo on the turn. The Hungarian wingers had tracked the Australian full backs, and their full backs were marking Kruse and Leckie. This meant the entire central midfield – Krisztian Vadócz and József Varga – could drop back and double-up on Rogic.
I have illustrated the process here, in a clip from the first half; you can see Mooy and Luongo settle back into the box formation, as the full backs trot up the flanks. There’s Rogic in the middle, with two Hungarians next to him for company. The Hungary midfielders are even content to let a tucked-in Leckie come deep for the ball, signalling for a winger to pick him up so they can remain around No.23.
Rogic is, effectively, insulated by markers, making it difficult for the centre backs or central midfielders to find him with a pass. In fact, the system seems to be purpose-built to activate the flanks primarily, subjecting Australia’s best play-maker to isolation almost by design.
Up until the 40th minute against Hungary, Rogic had touched the ball in the opposition half a grand total of two times. A relative flurry of activity saw him garner another five touches in the five minutes before halftime, but Rogic was barely involved.
As for the rest of the game, well, he played 80 minutes of football and, according to Socceroos match data, attempted just ten passes.
Rogic isn’t some expendable element of the team, that we might regrettably sacrifice for the greater good; he’s perhaps our best player, certainly – with the possible exception of Daniel Arzani – the player most capable of delivering a sparkling moment of attacking incision.
AAP Image/Paul Miller
One wonders exactly how strictly van Marwijk has instructed Rogic to hold that No.10 position when the team have the ball, because – apart from some fairly pedestrian lateral drifting – Rogic didn’t do much to solve his on-pitch exile.
He didn’t drop deep to collect off the centre backs. He didn’t charge forward to break the defensive line to coax out a long ball. He didn’t swap positions with Mooy. If the opposition are content to let the centre backs pass freely – and why wouldn’t they be, who knows, maybe a calamitous error will be gifted to them – it quickly becomes clear the excess markers will be sent to nullify Rogic.
Rogic, for all his talent and success in Scotland is not a player who can survive yawning spells of being uninvolved. His touch and passing degrade with inactivity, and so when his teammates do finally glimpse an avenue to pass to him, this happens.
The other problem is he provides little other than on-the-ball contributions; he doesn’t defend with relish – or, indeed, chutney – or put himself about, as it were. He doesn’t make unrewarded runs that stretch the defence into favourable shapes, like Robbie Kruse does. For a tall lad, he doesn’t win much in the air, and against Hungary he had as many fouls committed as he had duels won.
If the system around him is actively hindering Rogic’s very point as a player, what use is he in the starting XI? Why not have the physicality and athleticism of Jackson Irvine there, or a wildcard Arzani element?
Van Marwijk said again before the Hungary game that he has no time to experiment, but he really ought to rethink Tom Rogic’s place in the team.
The Phantom Commissioner
Roar Rookie
At the end of the day as far as creative midfielders go Toms the best we've got, sure he hasn't set the world on fire for Australia as yet but really who has in the last few years on a consistent basis. I do remember though he was good against the Germans at the Confeds Cup, made some good surging runs and was involved in both goals. if he's on that form for us then maybe, just maybe we'll get some results.
striker
Guest
yep i agree he does not have the quality hence why he re-signed in the SPL for another 5 yrs, he loses way too many balls for the national team, for me his very overrated, i hope he proves me wrong at this world cup.
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
Exactly, not even up to bottom half Bundesliga 2 standard.
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
My starting 11 against France based on what Aussie Bert might be thinking right now about our chances against France: Ryan Risdon Jurman Sainsbury Behich Milligan Jedinak Luongo Irvine Mooy Nabbout It will be a defensive, tough, phyical approach and a few yellow cards committed by the Footballroos in the first half. If the game remains scoreless in the first half, expect Juric or Caltex and Arzani to get some game time late in the second. Best result: 0-0 , 1-1 Worst Case: 0-4
nevyn
Guest
"So the problem is not the system but the balance of the selection." is spot on. Blaming the system fails to understand how the players around Rogic can affect the way that he performs. The video above shows a clear example of both Mooy dropping deep almost between the centre backs, and Luongo dropping wide into the space between right back and centre back, which is fine when teams are pressing up on your defence and you need an outlet. However in most of the situations against Hungary both Mooy and Luongo went deep searching for the ball when Hungary had dropped deep and compacted as a unit. It essentially left Rogic as one midfielder vs Hungary's three midfielders who were then free to pressure elsewhere on the pitch. Whether it was Jedinak, instructions by Van Marwijk, or Hungary being more adventurous, or possibly a combination of those reasons, we were able to get Mooy higher up the pitch and tempt Hungary's midfielders out and create space for Rogic and then Irvine when he came on. It speaks to a larger issue with our football development as a country. We have struggled against a lot of deep lying compact opponents because for the most part our midfielders don't know or aren't good enough to get into tight areas and tempt opposition defenders to step out of the defensive block.
Lionheart
Guest
a bit harsh on MacLaren, he never really got a look in at Darnstadt with just a few sub runs over half their season.
realfootball
Guest
In my view it has more to the SPL than BVM. The competition is poor and allows Rogic to exist in a low bar comfort zone. Every time he comes up against higher standard players he is found out. Time to admit a home truth, I think: Rogic isn't even close to as good as I and many others hoped he would be. He isn't strong enough, he isn't quick enough, and his technical skills aren't nearly as good as many seem to think. He's a had a lot of rope, but how long can any manager persist with a player who loses the ball at least 50% of the time he recieves it. Luongo is a far more effective 10. He's wasted in a DM role.
Fadida
Guest
I tend to agree Mark. The Scottish league is so woefully one sided that he can drop in and out of games. He's thrown his career away in Scotland
Onside
Guest
What position did you play Pa ?. I was an oblivious midfielder. ( loved it Evan) Re Rogic; I cant add to whats been said , other than, champion players adapt. I would be happy to come away from France with a stiflingly boring 0-0 draw.
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
The only place that Rogic and even McLaren for that matter, look any good is against some pretty loose marking in the Scottish Leagues. They get plenty of room and time to make nice passes and score some nice goals. You don't get that sort of luxury against better teams or international level players. Rogic is also guilty of often losing possession when it matters most.. Rogic doesn't have the personality and ability to dominate games or stamp his authority in midfield. He is not up to the standard of a World Cup against the likes of France, Denmark or Peru. But to be fair to him, there are only a handful of Footballroos that are. Under Aussie Bert, Rogic doesn't fit into the mantra of "pick the best team, not the best players". That's why he will lose some sleep about whether to play Arzani or not, as well. He doesn't want players that can beat a couple then lose possession at a critical time and France scores off the counter attack. Interesting to see what happens next, but maybe not yet time to give up all hope of a surprise result by the Footballroos.
Barca4life
Guest
To me with this perfectly illustrates why Mooy and Rogic cannot play together and be efficient. It’s either Mooy or Rogic, give both want the ball it’s a hard choice but it’s a matter of preference and the issue of opposition tactics. Mooy wants to roam around and get on the ball, whilst he does that it restricts the freedom of Luongo who sits deeper as he provides cover for Mooy when we lose the ball and therefore he can’t provide anything further forward between the lines to help Rogic who is isolated further up as the No.10 with at least 2 or 3 defenders around him. Rogic on the other hand who is technically comfortable in receiving the ball with his feet, he always has guys around him and often would lose the ball due to peer pressure from the defenders, a couple occasions he went out of pressure but it was rare. This is why both can’t play together, firstly because Mooy wants to get on the ball it restricts the movement of Rogic and Luongo to push forward, whilst Rogic is ineffective with his poor off the ball movemen he needs Luongo close to him but it isolates Mooy’s poor defensive skills and slowness. Ideally you either start Mooy or Rogic as the No.10, play Luongo as the No.8 and Jedinak or Irvine as the No.6
Waz
Roar Rookie
Well there’s nothing more to discuss then.
Caltex & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
I didn't see it that way---no two striker will ever be identical and you will only ever have about six metres apart between them; you'll never see two striker in a 442 system in a horizontal straight line formation in any case; they will switch over one leading in front of the other as play unfolds. 4411 suggests that one striker sits permanently behind the other for the entire game and that's false premise. I didn't see that in the Hungry game both strikers were swapping over front and back during the match; like in a normal 422 system.
Mark
Guest
Rogic didn’t do much better under Ange’s system, either. Certainly not once the quality of opposition stepped up. The problem with Rogic is he looks fantastic beating up on minnows in the SPL and first phase qualifiers, but against decent quality opposition he goes missing. I suspect Premier League clubs have noticed it too, hence why he has never earned that big move that seems to get talked about every year.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Not really. It’s up front where the 442 and 4411 formations really differ. 442 requires two strikers eg Maclaren and Keogh played very well in that system but you couldn’t play both in a 4-4-1-1. 4-4-1-1 requires one striker and a creative linking player behind in the AM role who’s job is to find space, receive the ball, hold and distribute the ball to wide midfielders/wingers and wing backs and feed the attacker where possible. Also helps if they can score too but that’s only a part of the role. I dont dislike the formation personally. Done well it’s very effective but the counter to the 4411 is to attack the central midfield area and overwhelm the lone AM and the two central midfielders - this is what’s being described here and likely what France will try and do to us. Put Arzani in that role and watch the difference IF he can get the ball.
TDV
Guest
I think Rogic is mainly there for the attacking transition, which van Marwijk’s counter attacking game plan relies on. Czechia pressed from their first line and Australia managed to play through or over the press using Maty Ryan to create a superiority. This created vertical space for Rogic to operate in once we broke the press. Hungary dropped rather than pressed, and Australia’s 6s were positioning to receive in front of the Hungary midfield line. Hence why Rogic was so isolated as you identified. The question is...how will France set up? Will they generally press or drop when the ball is turned over? Can Australia manage the vertical space to find pockets for Rogic to operate in and link up with the 9, the wingers and full backs?
Ben of Phnom Penh
Roar Guru
Given we are going to need a fast start against France, is it better to start with Irvine? Perhaps having a more industrious player harrassing the French midfield through a high work rate off the ball (whethere we are in possession or not) will evenutally create the conditions Rogic needs to thrive.
Ado Potato
Roar Rookie
Evan, I love this sort of detailed analysis. It's one of the reasons I come to The Roar. Thank you for your great writing.
Caltex & SBS support Australian Football
Guest
4411 or 442, no difference, it's basically the same system. Defend deep and counter.
Waz
Roar Rookie
@ Caltex, I think it’s a 4-4-1-1 he’s planning - defend and counter.