Australia will start their ODI series against England today as the biggest outsiders they have been in the 50-over format for more than 20 years.
The tourists will be missing six members of their best XI – their two finest batsmen in Steve Smith and David Warner, their three best bowlers in Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins, and their most experienced ODI all-rounder in Mitchell Marsh.
What’s left is a patched-up side extremely low on experience, led by new captain Tim Paine, tasked with defeating the world’s number one ODI side in their own backyard.
Here are my predictions for the series:
Leading runscorer: Jonny Bairstow (England)
This is a no-brainer: Bairstow is in beastly form. Since the start of 2017, the English opener has creamed 1098 ODI runs at 69, including five tons, with a scorching strike rate of 107.
Bairstow is only getting better the more experience he gains against the new ball, having cracked three tons in his last three ODI innings.
He was not at his best in Australia earlier this year, making 157 runs at 31 as England beat Australia 4-1. But on what are expected to be ultra-flat home pitches, Bairstow’s wide range of strokes will be hard for Australia to contain.
Jonny Bairstow (Photo by MB Media/Getty Images)
Leading wicket taker: Andrew Tye (Australia)
It was a tight call between Tye and England’s Chris Woakes.
The Englishman is a greatly-improved quick, having averaged 23 with the ball over the past two calendar years.
Tye, meanwhile, is a natural wicket taker thanks to his array of change-ups. These deceptive deliveries should be particularly valuable against a hyper-aggressive batting side. The white-ball specialist is coming off a sensational IPL season in which he was the leading wickettaker in the tournament, with 24 wickets at 18.
Surprise packet: Ashton Agar (Australia)
Agar looks set to be given huge responsibility by new coach Justin Langer, who has strongly hinted that the 24-year-old will be the team’s number one spin bowler while also being promoted to bat at number seven.
Agar has made great strides as a bowler over the past two years. He can be difficult to score off because of his height, accuracy, calmness under pressure, and his ability to change his pace by up to 20kmh from one delivery to the next without an obvious change in his action. With the bat he is a free-scoring strokemaker who has done his best work under pressure for Western Australia and the Perth Scorchers.
Australia’s x-factor player: Billy Stanlake
Stanlake is truly unique, there is no other bowler in world cricket like him.
At 204cm tall and with the ability to regularly hit 150kmh, he is genuinely intimidating. While he regularly harries batsmen with his pace, it is the steep bounce he earns which most regularly startles the opposition. However, the 23-year-old also has a lovely outswinger and is underrated for his accuracy.
If he finds his rhythm he has the tools to take multiple wickets with the new ball. Australia will desperately need to make inroads in the first ten overs given the depth of England’s batting line-up.
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England’s x-factor player: Ben Stokes
The last time Australia ran into Stokes, 12 months ago during the Champions Trophy, the England all-rounder had just won the IPL Player of the Tournament award, and came to the crease against Australia with England in a mess at 3-35, then hammered 102* to help his side storm to victory and effectively boot Australia out of the tournament.
But only a few months later, Stokes’ life was thrown into turmoil after he allegedly king-hit a man in a drunken brawl, leading to a lengthy playing suspension.
Since his return, he’s been ordinary for England and had a poor IPL.
But Australia are well aware of the carnage Stokes can create if he finds form.
Predicted line-ups
Australia
1. Travis Head
2. D’Arcy Short
3. Marcus Stoinis
4. Shaun Marsh
5. Aaron Finch
6. Tim Paine (wk) (c)
7. Ashton Agar
8. Michael Neser
9. Andrew Tye
10. Kane Richardson
11. Billy Stanlake
England
1. Jason Roy
2. Jonny Bairstow
3. Alex Hales
4. Joe Root
5. Eoin Morgan (c)
6. Jos Buttler (wk)
7. Moeen Ali
8. David Willey
9. Liam Plunkett
10. Adil Rashid
11. Mark Wood
KenoathCarnt
Guest
I was never convinced with Neser in the lineup even being a Qld supporter but he has proved me wrong and could play a vital part for Australia. He gets good swing and looks a handful to face as well as he is definitely no mug with the bat.
KenoathCarnt
Guest
I just wish Australia had an ODI kit similar to the T20 kit that would boost performance by at least 15%
KenoathCarnt
Guest
Lol imagine the English supporters it would be the scandal of the decade on SkySports.
ozinsa
Guest
Sneaking in two blokes at 6 definitely solves our problems with batting depth James. Not sure we’ll get the OK to go ahead with it though
KenoathCarnt
Guest
Hopefully not 5 bowlers I reackon Langer was just trying to allow his bowlers alot of opportunity which is great. If you consider Stonis and Short the main bowlers to cover the 10 extra overs that is pretty dam good! Short's bowling in the JLT cup was pretty much as good as a guenuine bowler and Australia's main priority should be batting. The only struggle I have is the batting lineup why on Earth was Hughes not picked he would slot into the middle order perfectly. I just wish Cummins and Starc was fit because then you might get away with 5 bowlers. Short Paine Head Stoinis Marsh Finch Maxwell Agar Neser Tye Stanlake I am completely baffled by the batting lineup and open for any suggestions with the change in position.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Langer gave strong indications in his presser that he wants the order to be: 3. Stoinis 4. Marsh 5. Finch 6. Paine 7. Agar So unless Maxwell is going to open the batting, which is unlikely, it seems he is set to miss out, as Cricinfo are predicting. I'd have Maxwell in the XI instead of an extra bowler but Langer appears to have other plans.
Ben
Roar Rookie
What comments? It sounded from him he will give him he has trust in him to get a big score. cricket.com.au is more reliable than cricinfo on selection. We will find out tonight.
Paul
Roar Guru
hope your predictions are more accurate than the BoM! In any event, I don't think it matters a lot, I'm hoping all the guys will get a run at some stage, assuming we don't magically hit upon a team that is world beating.
Paul
Roar Guru
I don't think we'll see the same batting lineup in any of the 5 games, unless of course someone steps up and fills a particular hole, eg hitting down the order, or towards the end of the innings.
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
Geez I'm behind the times. Thanks tim.
tim
Guest
The toss abandonment didn't get approved in any format.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Yeah very interested to see how Short and Stanlake go especially. Would love Maxwell to have a big series. Is Stoinis a flash in the pan? Can Tye work his magic? Is Agar turning into a white ball star and our clear 2nd test spinner?
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Not according to Cricinfo Ben, they have Maxwell missing out as I've also predicted the last few days. Langer's comments and the makeup of the team in the warm-ups always suggested Maxwell was likely to miss out given the switch to playing 5 bowlers
BurgyGreen
Guest
If Head plays a knock like he did against Middlesex (brought up his hundred off 133 balls) we will lose. Simple as that. He struggles to rotate the strike especially against spin. I didn't think much of Neser as a one-day bowler when he was called up but he looked good in the warmups. Giving him and Stanlake the new ball could be quite potent - and we'll need to get through their top 3 early to derail their assault.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Paine weakens our batting less at opener than at 6/7, where he doesn't have the firepower. I'd go like this, but they won't bat Finch at 4. Playing Finch in an anchor role, plus Head and Marsh, how will we score 330? 1. Tim Paine (wk) © 2. D’Arcy Short 3. Travis Head 4. Aaron Finch 5. Shaun Marsh 6. Glenn Maxwell 7. Marcus Stoinis 8. Ashton Agar 9. Andrew Tye 10. Kane Richardson/Neser 11. Billy Stanlake 5th bowler comes from Stoinis, Head, Maxwell etc. At least we have some middle order firepower for the last 10 overs, and a bit up top with Short. Paine should have a licence to go for it. We'd be better off with Handscomb keeping and batting at 4/5. I'd like to see Short and Maxwell opening, then maybe Head, Finch, Handscomb, Stoinis and another hitter at 7 - not sure who.
BurgyGreen
Guest
Although Langer did say that he likes Agar and Neser at 7 and 8, he also backed Maxwell strongly and said that he felt a big score was just around the corner for him. I think it may well be that Short misses out, having failed his auditions in the tour matches. Who opens then is a mystery. Probably Head is one - perhaps SMarsh is the other? That would be a stodgy opening pair but I don't think Langer sees it that way.
BurgyGreen
Guest
I'm all for experiments but assuming we have our first choice attack ready for the World Cup, most of these bowlers won't make the squad. So at best what we gain from this experiment is working out who should carry the drinks when Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins are back. What we should be trying to experiment with is batting combinations, because there are big holes in the top 7 even when Smith and Warner come back.
Rellum
Roar Guru
We look ripe to be hammered with that batting line up. Stanlake won't offer much if the wicket is flat. Hopefully he can crank it up and get some bounce to hurry them up. Nesser is the key. The guy can get the ball to talk so if he can get some wickets we might be in with a show. But in reality the top order needs to fire big time. Head is overrated right now for me. Watching him in the Shield you can see how he struggles with a swinging ball. Over in England I worry about his form. We are really relying on Finch and Marsh to get most of our runs. There is a real chance the top three will be told to tee off and we will end up being 3-10 with Marsh and Finch having to bat out the rest of the innings to save some sort of total. This team has too much of a T20 feel to it.
mickey of mo$man
Guest
+1 cant wait for this series... feels like years since we had some international cricket!!
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
The England bowling attack doesn’t look that flash although I guess it’s all about the batting. But I can’t believe Maxwell won’t be in the side. As others have said you can’t have Paine at 6 in an ODI. Leave the fifth bowler to a mix of all rounders. Rashid was a big plus for England in Australia but I suspect he may be less of a handful on English wickets. On their day, a team with Finch, Maxwell and Stoinis all firing could match the Poms in batting, but I doubt it will happen more than once in the series.