Super Rugby returns with a widely anticipated and hugely important round 17 clash tonight in Melbourne, between the Rebels and Waratahs. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog, starting from 7:45pm AEST.
The winner will put themselves into the box seat to claim top spot in the Australian conference – and a guaranteed home final – while for the loser, it will open up the possibility of missing out on the finals altogether, depending on how other results go.
The June international series has had a huge impact, for two reasons – injuries to key players, and the interruption of momentum that both sides had generated before the enforced break.
Both sides have been similarly affected by injury; the Rebels losing captain Adam Coleman and star halfback Will Genia, while the Waratahs, have lost their captain Michael Hooper, and star fullback Israel Folau (subject to appeal at the time of writing).
All are key players, but there is a sense that Michael Hooper – by dint of his inspirational leadership, and tireless work-rate – is a most significant loss.
To counter that, the Waratahs pack welcomes back Ned Hanigan from injury, and there is energy and organization about their play which has held them in good stead this season.
In the backline Taqele Naiyarovoro will look to continue where he left off earlier this season in Sydney, where his power running proved too much for the Rebels to handle.
Despite the loss of the two senior Wallabies, the home team has a settled look about it, with the experienced Geoff Parling in for Coleman, and Reece Hodge once again handed the 10 jersey.
Talismatic No.8 Amanaki Mafi is potentially playing his final home match for the Rebels, and while he owes local fans nothing, he will be desperate to sign off with his customary flourish.
Coach Dave Wessels has spoken this week about not placing too much pressure on his side, letting his players approach the game with a degree of freedom, which augers well for a match full of enterprise – although he will certainly be insistent upon a stouter defensive effort than what his players showed in the extreme heat of the Sydney match.
Prediction
On exposed form this season, the Waratahs are the better team, reflective of them being a year or so ahead in their development under Daryl Gibson, compared to the time Wessels has had with his side.
The Hooper factor is a big one however, and an upset win to a committed home team wouldn’t surprise.
Rebels by 6 points
Join The Roar from 7:45pm AEST for pre-match discussion, live scores and commentary, and debates.
Danny
Roar Pro
Collingwood's brand less than 5x Storm I very much doubt that but it's subjective I guess. ARU only got into financial trouble after 2005/6 - before that its financial health was up and down but mostly up especially after RWC03. Brumbies have been a huge financial opportunity cost since day one - a side built from mostly NSW and QLD players based in a shitey little town in a shitey little stadium that last year attracted <10k fans to a semi final. Sure they won two titles, but I'd argue they could easily have won those in Melbourne and built up a much much bigger brand. Bigger brands attract more players, bigger crowds - more money. That 1996 decision is a Sliding Doors moment for rugby in Aus. I'd ask you Andrew / No Idea - if you had a green fields restart for Australian rugby how would it look? I'd argue SR teams would be based in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. There's an old saying in NZ that Auckland makes the money and Wellington spends it - same is true for Canberra it sucks the life out of the productive parts of the country. And BTW despite my logo I lived in Sydney for nearly 20 years, have an Aussie wife and kids and am an Australian citizen. I have great fondness for Aus rugby and back the Wallabies over everyone except my country of birth.
RobC
Roar Guru
Sorry about the loss, DrP. But the Rebs played really well. When's the rematch!?!
RobC
Roar Guru
His spine is divine But his front is a font!
RobC
Roar Guru
thanks GP! Great match, great blog, great wrap! Should have been a tie! Grab your sister!
Paul D
Roar Rookie
From my reccollection Hanigan was the one getting support from Miller. I think they both played well, but it was a great game for the much maligned mop-head. What was it, 4 turnovers?
No Idea
Guest
Storm X 5. That means they would be bigger than Collingwood in Melbourne. Only a Kiwi would think that. The Rebels will be bankrupt in a years time.
Harry Jones
Expert
Your spine was spinier in the end
andrewM
Guest
Easy Danny..ARU would have gone broke 10 years earlier
Danny
Roar Pro
Cracking game. The cream of Aus rugby played a high paced skilful thriller. Felt for the Rebels they did enough but in the end the Tahs class came through. I keep imagining what these Rebels would look like if they'd got the franchise in 1996 instead of the Brumbies. Storm x 5 I reckon. What a blunder. I wonder if over the next two years pressure will build to move the Brumbies to Perth. It's the obvious move.
Daveski
Guest
Cheers for the blog Geoff, I was out but managed to check your feed a few times and delighted to see the end result. Meanwhile over in Auckland it appears Ben Skeen was at it again. Look I know you're very fair and non-sensationalist on rugby issues but seriously this bloke is out of control and with a couple of other TMOs needs to be reigned in big time.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Press conference news Waratahs pretty much as you'd expect, Gibson very proud of his team considering they had a very interrupted preparation. He singled out Will Miller for praise, handling the expected Rebels attack through the middle. Bernard Foley also delighted that his team stayed in the fight and came away with a win that, he acknowledged, on the run of play, they probably didn't deserve. Rebels coach Dave Wessels was quite upbeat, also proud at how his team continues to improve their performance. But yes, the loss hurts, particularly from a winning position. Captain Tom English rued the fact that, with the Tahs on the rack, they got a wee bit excited and looked for plays on the outside too much, instead of continuing the charging, off-loading game that was working so well. But all-in-all, captain and coach consider that there is plenty for the Rebels to be encouraged about, despite the loss.
cinque
Guest
Not in defence ....
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Great stuff Geoff, fantastic game. The Rebels were in control for most of the second half with all the territory and possession. A couple of gift meat pies undid them. Very guttsy peformamce from the Tahs to hang in there and hold on for a big win. Phillip and Mafi were huge in second half, Cheika would have loved what he saw from Phillip and wished that Mafi was eligible for the Wallabies, what a player ! Will Miller was everywhere however needs a bit more help at the breakdown, hopefully Dempsey isn’t too far from returning. Well done to both teams on a great game.
cinque
Guest
To be fair, he was fighting a stiff breeze. However, he has had a poor, petulant game.Not Captain material.
ozinsa
Guest
Cmon, seriously? The Rebels played some great rugby and had the winning of the game in their hands. That they failed to close it out is on them. I’m waiting to hear from the Hanigan knockers. He was immense and is getting better at each start. I’m not defending past form, just hoping the haters will likewise look at his current output and not keep seeing the 2017 form. Newsome was terrific too. Made two (at least) really key defensive interventions and was really good with the ball. Did Meakes cold from a standing start. Rebels will beat a lot of sides playing that well. Glad they didn’t today though
LifestyleSpecialist
Roar Rookie
Without Hooper and Folau the Tahs don't look nearly as tough an outfit. Hooper seems to be worth 2 players in terms of effort he puts in and Folau is simply world class. Miller had a great game at 7 to be fair and Hegarty was fine at 15 but without the A-Team the Tahs couldn't assert themselves. In saying that the Tahs scrum was dominant. Just a bit lackluster in defence with the Rebels making easy metres on the pick and go.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Match summary: The Waratahs have all but sewn up top spot in the Australian conference, conjuring up a hard-fought 31-26 win over the Rebels in a thrilling match at AAMI Stadium. After dominating the first half and taking a 17-10 lead into halftime, the Tahs ceded control to a rampant Rebels outfit – Matt Philip and Amanaki Mafi leading the charges – and it was the Rebels who looked most likely to win, holding a nine point lead heading into the final stanza. But two key plays from senior Wallabies held the key to the match, first Kurtley Beale, then Bernard Foley snaffling intercepts which led to tries by an impressive Ned Hanigan, and Foley himself. The Rebels gave themselves another shot at the death, but failed to secure their lineout – a problem that also dogged them at the start of the match. The Rebels will look back on tonight with frustration, Angus Cottrell coughing up the ball in a scoring position right on halftime, and then failing to apply the killer blow when having the Waratahs on the rack in the second half. It was as if the Rebels lacked the confidence and self-belief to go on with the job, despite their dominance up front, and their play lacked a hard, direct edge right at the critical moment it was needed. The Waratahs seemed rudderless for much of the 2nd half, clealry missing their skipper Michael Hooper, but they will be delighted at the way they kept their composure, stayed in the contest, and put the points on the board when the opportunities eventually presented themselves. For the home side, Jack Maddocks again impressed on the wing, along with big shifts from most of the pack – although their scrum did conceded dominance to the Waratahs. Reece hodge was impressive with the boot, but the jury is still out on his playing at 10. Will Miller was great value for the visitors early, although it was Hanigan who took responsibility for driving the forward effort when it counted. Replacement winger Alex Newsome was dangerous all night, and even though Beale was untidy at times, it was his spark that eventually turned the game. After a week of constant bleating about laws and their interpretation it was great to be able to focus on purely rugby matters – and a genuinely exciting match to boot! It wasn’t always clinical but both sides showed a refreshing attitude to attack each other with the ball, and the (disappointing) crowd of 9,208 was kept highly entertained throughout. Well done Waratahs, a very hard-earned win away from home; on the other hand commiserations to the Rebels, who really had the match won, and only let it slip with a couple of intercepts. Final score WARATAHS 31 REBELS 26
Boomeranga
Guest
He is. It's probably about now he should've started to come into the conversation for the Wobs squad. It'll be a sign we're going better when that is the way it happens in reality.
Faith
Guest
Rebels lost that one - unable to manage the game and close it out. Play for territory - run it through like they were doing when they were dominant ...
Mike
Guest
Wow, what a game. Still experiencing atrial fibrillation after that see-sawing effort. The rebels with greater intensity and cohesion led for 72 minutes, and then a moment of magic from Captain Foley changed the whole course of the game. Credit also to the Tahs forwards for their collective effort in the tantalising last minutes. As a footnote, where would the Tahs be without Beale on the paddock? Congrats again to the Tahs and well played the Rebs.