Western Bulldogs vs Geelong: Friday Night Forecast

For the fourth and final time this season the disappointing Bulldogs find themselves on the Friday night stage, this time playing host to the seventh-placed Cats.

It’s been a bit of a strange season for the Cats. At 8-5 they’re well placed for a top-four push in the final nine games, though they’re also at risk of missing entirely in a competitive season if they slip up in the run home.

They could well be coming off their most impressive performance of the year in their pre-bye loss to the Tigers at the MCG and get a major boost this week with the return of their gun key defender Harry Taylor who should strengthen an already stingy defence – if Chris Scott chooses to deploy him there, that is.

Geelong are conceding a league-best 67.9 points a game this season. One of the major reasons for that is that they force their opponents into long and wide shots.

Excluding rushed behinds, Geelong’s opponents have averaged 20 scoring shots a game this season, which is the 10th-most in the league – not all that impressive. But teams playing Geelong are kicking a goal with just 46.5 per cent of those scoring shots, clearly the best mark in the league – Sydney were second at 51 per cent heading into Round 15.

That’s bad news for the Bulldogs, whose goals account for just 49.8 per cent of their scoring shots (excluding rushed behinds), which is 17th – only a fraction ahead of the Saints.

Scoring has been a problem for the Dogs all season – and much of last year as well. Rookie Billy Gowers is their leading goal scorer with 18 and Marcus Bontempelli’s 14 make him the only other Bulldog to crack double digits – no other team has so few players with ten or more goals.

The Bont. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Luke Beveridge has thrown first-year defenders Ed Richards and Aaron Naughton forward in the past couple of weeks with some success. Zaine Cordy and Bailey Williams also spent plenty of time in attack last week. Jason Johannisen has spend a lot of time in attack this year, even if he looks to have little idea what he’s doing down there. The 2016 premiership coach is nothing if not unpredictable.

But it’s tough to see the Dogs kicking a big score tonight, which puts the pressure on the other end of the ground to keep things tight. With Dale Morris and Matt Suckling back in the side, along with Jackson Trengove, Hayden Crozier and the inexperienced but mature Marcus Adams, there are no longer any excuses about youth in their back half.

Good thing too, because the Cats have a couple of brutes in attack in Tom Hawkins and Patrick Dangerfield, who is likely to spend plenty of time deep forward as well. Taylor is the wildcard; the returning veteran booted five goals the last time these sides met.

Patty Danger (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Mark Blicavs, Tom Stewart, Jake Kolodjashnij and Jack Henry have held things down in Taylor’s absence, so this might be a night for the two-time All-Australian defender to play forward.

Not only is he a aerial threat with the ability to find the goals, but Taylor’s presence could open things up for Hawkins, Dangerfield and youngsters James Parsons and Brandon Parfitt among others.

Zach Tuohy is the other key piece in Geelong’s back half and the Dogs need to pay him plenty of attention. The Cats can lack imagination from behind centre and Tuohy is the one who can spice things up with his bold play. If he’s able to get off the leash his side will be well on the way the four points.

It’s in the middle of the ground though where Geelong should have the greatest advantage. Dangerfield (36 disposals, 12 tackles and four goals) Joel Selwood (29 touches, 20 contested possessions, 11 clearances and a goal) and Mitch Duncan (31 touches and 18 tackles) monstered the Dogs last time these teams met. That trio now have Gary Ablett on their side and first-year phenom Tim Kelly.

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It looks problematic for the Bulldogs who are going to need a big night from Bontempelli and the vastly improved Toby McLean as well as Luke Dahlhaus, Lachie Hunter and last week’s whipping boy Mitch Wallis if they’re to go close to breaking even around the ball.

Footscray have been a strong clearance team this season (No.4 for differential) but dreadful in the contested possession game (17th for differential). Their balance is out of whack between inside and outside.

As a team with premiership aspirations, this is a game Geelong should win and win well.

They pushed a good North Melbourne side for the entire match last round, so there is reason to hope the Bulldogs can make a game of this.

It’s the hope that kills you. Geelong by 25 points.

That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?