In our current sports media landscape diverse opinions and fierce debate reign supreme.
It is a rare occurrence for the majority of pundits and sports fans alike agree on a particular topic. However, before the 2018 season began we had our Halley’s Comet, the sporting public marching arm in arm, almost unanimously proclaiming that North Melbourne will endure a horrid season that will most likely end in a wooden spoon.
Fast-forward to the present and North Melbourne currently reside in ninth position, outside the eight only on percentage. It’s fair to say no-one expected the quality of performances North have continuously put forth this season, and rightly so – the season prior they finished a lowly 15th, lost key personnel, and failed to add any big-name players to the mix.
Yet here we are, eight games away from season’s end and North Melbourne are teetering on the edge of the finals with a run home that is at least as, if not more, winnable than the runs home of their closest finals rivals.
Let’s talk history for a moment – to be more specific, the recent history of a little-known team called the Richmond Tigers. Okay, that last bit was a lie, as I’m sure all shop owners in Richmond on the 30 September 2017 would attest.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Richmond made the finals three years in a row, from 2013 to 2015, then inexplicably missed out in the 2016 season finishing 13th and nearly costing Damien Hardwick his job. The Tigers were too top-heavy, contended the media, they had no talent surrounding the likes of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance. A year later Cotchin emphatically hoisted the AFL premiership trophy in the air and sent the suburb of Richmond into raptures.
If we turn our attention back to North Melbourne, we start to see some surprising similarities. North had a run of three consecutive finals campaigns, including two preliminary finals, from 2014 to 2016 but then faltered in the 2017 season, finishing 15th. North Melbourne dealt with the same criticisms as the Tigers – they do not have enough talent around their core players of Jack Ziebell, Shaun Higgins, Ben Brown, Ben Cunnington, and Robbie Tarrant. However, they have bounced back this season, just as Richmond did. How high they bounce now becomes the question.
Richmond have been applauded for their efforts this season, particularly in avoiding the dreaded premiership hangover. Statistically speaking, North Melbourne and Richmond this season are separated by a maximum of only two ranking places and are nearly identical in every key facet of the game, with the exception of inside 50s, with Richmond ahead by eight places, and contested possessions, with North ahead by five places. No other teams mirror each other so closely. It’s quite staggering.
Speaking of mirroring, have you noticed the similarities between both teams’ top-tier players? If you haven’t, allow me to bombard you with a string of rhetorical questions.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Is Ben Brown, forgetting for a moment the size differential, a sharpshooter and constant threat overhead currently leading the Coleman medal, reminiscent of Jack Riewoldt?
Does Ben Cunnington, a hard-nosed contested ball winner with an incredibly high work ethic, sound a bit like Trent Cotchin?
Is it just me or does the sentence ‘an athletic defender adept at intercepting opposition plays and setting up counter attacks’ descirbe Alex Rance as well as Robbie Tarrant?
Finally there’s Shaun Higgins, a ball-winning, goal-scoring midfield-forward oozing with x-factor and capable of turning a game on its head. Any ideas who that may be?
I realise it may be considered blasphemous to even compare these players to Richmond’s premiership heroes, and I am in no way saying that they are of the same quality. However, it must be noted that these pairings are all made in the same mould. Most importantly, both teams’ top-tier players are evenly spread across the field: one defender, two midfielders and a forward.
The statistics clearly show how close to emulating Richmond’s game North Melbourne really are. With a few minor tweaks and a sprinkle of luck, who knows what might eventuate.
A team led by four or five top-tier players said to have missed their premiership window and who are motivated by a poor last season and determination to prove the doubters wrong. Sounds like the Tigers of 2017 to me.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I suppose that I might also point out that what is presented is not a statistical analysis so much as observed comparisons.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
North is the next Richmond? Errr ….no! Mark Twain — ‘Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination’
Rissole
Guest
How is this a transition year though? They have been the older and/or more experienced team in 11 of their 14 games. They let the dead wood (Petrie, Firrito etc.) go from their list two seasons ago and Thomas last year. North simply under-performed by losing all but one of their close games last year and should have finished somewhere just outside the 8. By under-performing they finished bottom 6 and were handed an easy draw. In conjunction with natural improvement they should be fighting for a spot in the eight.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Staff writers at the league's media arm aren't necessarily the general public, matey.
anon
Roar Pro
10 of 17 tipped them for the wooden spoon. One one person had them higher than bottom 3. Basically they were tipped to be wooden spooners by the vast majority of the football public and here they are possibly competing for a top 4 spot if they can keep it together. Amazing performance during a transition year. Makes a mockery of these 5 year rebuilds.
Paul D
Roar Guru
In your article you wrote “the sporting public marching arm in arm, almost unanimously proclaiming that North Melbourne will (win) a wooden spoon.” Now you’re saying 10 out of 17 afl.com staff writers tipped north Melbourne for the spoon - I contend that 58% is not “almost unanimously” and neither are they “the sporting public” It is also not “everyone” - not by a long shot Why you would think enlisting the views of the paid scribblers on afl.com would help your case is beyond me. Call me a pedant but your statements in your article are not factually correct. I’m not disputing that North weren’t predicted to do well, but much as I bagged out Tim Lane after the hawks finally lost to the Lions for the first time in over ten years, running around screaming what a disaster it was, and consistently trying to over emphasise your disadvantages is a disservice to clubs like my own who genuinely have struggled for a hell of a lot longer than North. So some people tipped you to win the wooden spoon. Guess what. You won’t. As opposed to clubs like my own who routinely aren’t tipped to win it out of misplaced hope and yet do. I know in which situation I’d rather be
James Somlai
Roar Rookie
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-17/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2018-predictions A little reading for you, let me know how many tipped North for the wooden spoon, I count 10.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Josh Elliott: "personally I’m expecting us to finish below Brisbane and Fremantle, more because I think those teams will improve rather than because we’re any worse than what you’re rating us here. Ahead of Carlton largely because of the absence of Docherty and Gibbs, ahead of Gold Coast because a team of Roar expert writers could be ahead of Gold Coast this year." Sounds like 16th to me. From someone who's more of an expert on North than you could ever hope to be.
anon
Roar Pro
They've had a very easy draw, but good on them. Everyone said they'd get the wooden spoon. Incredible effort for a side in transition.
James Somlai
Roar Rookie
Just to clarify I am not a Kangaroos supporter. The similarities between the narratives of both clubs and the surprisingly even statistics this season fascinated me. Will the Kangaroos follow the narrative the whole way and win the flag, probably not. Just a fun little comparison.
Andrew Young
Roar Guru
The Kangaroos have definitely exceeded expectations this year, but I don't think they will be contending for the premiership in the next couple of years. Happy to be proven wrong, though!
Josh Mitchell
Roar Rookie
Well, Cam had a laugh at Josh the other day for creating a Richmond article that's 50% about North. Now we have the other way around, a North article that's 50% about Richmond. But seriously... Is this a joke?
Geoff Schaefer
Guest
Actually I see the Roos as more similar to Collingwood. A slightly better than average team that has taken adavantage of a soft draw.
Paul D
Roar Guru
No. Also "It is a rare occurrence for the majority of pundits and sports fans alike agree on a particular topic. However, before the 2018 season began we had our Halley’s Comet, the sporting public marching arm in arm, almost unanimously proclaiming that North Melbourne will endure a horrid season that will most likely end in a wooden spoon." What a load of tripe. No-one and I mean no-one had North as wooden spooners, not with the Suns, Carlton and the Lions in the mix. Over exaggerations like that ruin your article before it even starts. Cam Rose had you at 14th after those 3 and the Dockers in his season previews, which I seem to recall was broadly in agreement with most pundits - I know you compared Shaun Higgins to Dustin Martin further down the page, but oddly enough I think that's less of an exaggeration than that woe-is-us rewrite of history to commence your article. You're exceeding expectations, that's all. Be grateful for that and stop trying to claim that your little inner city Grill'd outlet is going to be the next McDonalds
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
A classic case of damn lies and statistics. North the new Richmond? No.